Larry Sabato: Obama Will Likely Win 2nd Term with 290 EV

[TroyD]

Sabato's basic projection seems in the general ballpark, but I find it curious that he gives Colorado to Obama but Virginia to Romney.

I think Obama is actually stronger in Virginia than Colorado, but there's no way of knowing for sure.

Nate Silver projects Obama to win both.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

[yellowcanine]

1. New Republican meme? "Romney would have caught up if more time."

Watch for Republicans to seize on Sabato's last 2 sentences when Romney loses.

"While Romney surged after the first debate, he never quite closed the deal in the key swing states. And now, we believe he has run out of time."

Of course this ignores the truth that it was Obama who had the momentum the last couple of weeks, not Romney. With more time, Obama likely has a bigger win.

[geek tragedy]

2. Important thing to remember is that no one wins all the close races in this kind of election.

In 2008, Obama won two very close ones (Indiana and NC) and lost one (Missouri).

In 2004, Bush lost a bunch of close ones ( Wisconsin, New Hampshire) while winning Ohio, Colorado.

In 2000, Gore barely won Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa while barely losing New Mexico and, blech.