Dems End on High Note in North Carolina Early Voting

[Tenleytown]

"Republicans had cut the Dem advantage in NC early voting to 15.8%. After Saturday’s voting, the last full day of early voting in North Carolina, the Dem advantage increased back up to 16.2%, a pretty impressive feat considering that over 62.7% of the likely vote in North Carolina is now already in. That means that Dems are running just a tad ahead of their ’08 advantage in early voting."

http://www.cabpolitical.com/

[CurtEastPoint]

1. Oh but to hear it on the radio this AM it's all GOP advantage there. Liars.

[yellowcanine]

13. More people are early voting now so comparisons to 08 are not meaningful.

It could be that many people voted early instead of voting on election day this time. What we don't know is how many people voted early who would not have otherwise voted. I suspect that number is larger for Democrats though.

[PsychProfessor]

2. What is amazing about these numbers

Is that many of these early voters, people who have already voted, would not have been considered "likely voters" according to many screens. This is amazing news. You go NC!

[oswaldactedalone]

3. I've mentioned many times

that I thought the OFA ground game was amazing. This bears it out. We're still out trying to stir up every vote we can find and will be at it feverishly until 7:15pm tomorrow. Going to be tough to stem the Election Day tide here. I'm heading out in a few minutes for a full day.

Bring it home NC!

[John2]

4. I

looked at PPP's last Poll and I think they are right except for one Demographic. They had the African American vote at 21 percent of the North Carolina electorate. That is the percentage of the North Carolina population but in 2008, the actual percentage of the African American vote was 23 percent. By early vote indications, that will rise and the white percentage will drop.

On the same area PPP had Romney getting 11 percent of the African American vote in their Poll. Either you got some people lying they are Black or the early voting statistics are off because in early voting, only 1.13 percent of the Republican vote was Black. Over fifty percent of the Democratic vote was Black.

Another area of the PPP Polls internals showed 62 percent of the sample already voted with Obama having a nine point lead. That left only 38 percent of the sample left out of 921 people. So that 38 percent is a very small sample of likely voters. If that stood alone, it would have a large sampling error.

[woolldog]

10. excellent points John!

[dmallind]

5. Either very positive or a freaky electoral split

If Obama has a 16.2% lead with 62.7% of the vote in, Romney must get at least 63.6% of the remaining vote (winning by nigh 30 points!) on election day to win. Yes I know early voting is a big Dem push, and rightly so, but it's not like Reps are barred from it or ignorant of it, and it would to me be strange to think that the crowd not wanting to take advantage of it would be that heavily Republican.

[LisaL]

6. That's exactly right.

Romney must win big on election day. In 2008, he came very close to overcoming democratic lead in early voting, but was not able to win. Lets hope remaining democrats show up on election day.

[John2]

8. Over

800,000 republicans have voted which is up from 2008. They are really depending on more dEmocrats and unaffiliated voters to help them on election Day. They do not have enough registered Republicans to beat the Democrats. They are basically looking for more white people to come to their cause. I see no reason to vote for Romney unless it is based on race. Their other arguments are a Bunch of lies.

[aptsongs]

7. Cool!

We have early voting here in Cali as well!

[Blackhatjack]

9. NC Wildcards To Consider BEFORE Declaring Victory ...

*NC has several military bases and soldiers stationed overseas. Those voting won't have their votes counted for several days AFTER election day.

*NC historically has a substantial number of absentee ballots cast, and more Repubs vote that way than Democrats. They will be counted AFTER regular voting is counted on election day.

*In many voting districts paper ballots are used but those ballots are counted by being fed into electronic scanners. There have been problems with those scanners in the past where lots of votes were 'lost' because of human error operating them.

Because of past problems there have been large numbers of poll watchers and voter protection workers at the polls. They can challenge votes on the spot, and document the deviation of poll workers from established legal procedures for later challenge. Expect people to have their right to vote challenged, and for them to receive provisional ballots which may not be counted unless additional information is provided by the voter.

If Obama and Democrats have to "fight it out" in NC with a WIN in the balance, don't expect a quick resolution.

[BlueStreak]

12. Re: optical scanners

That should affect both sides equally.

Optical scan really is the very best solution of all the available technologies. It preserves the original paper document so there is always the opportunity for a full manual recount if necessary.

And if allows sample batches to be run through the scanners as tests to validate that the system is working as designed.

[BlueStreak]

11. I've been thinking NC would surprise everybody

Colorado will be tough because it is honestly close.

Florida and Ohio will be tough because of the massive election fraud and voter suppression.

I think we get Iowa, Virginia and Nevada by margins bigger than the "experts" are talking.

I don't think WI, MI, and PA were really ever in serious doubt.

That leaves NC. Everybody in the MSM is calling this solidly for Romney, but this early voting stuff is huge. it seems like everybody is ignoring the FACTS of early voting and are focusing on the mythology of the polls. When you have a choice between clear facts and mythology, I would think it makes more sense to pay heed to facts.

If we win EITHER NC or VA (and get the ones that shouldn't be in contention (PA, WI, MI, IA, NV) then it doesn't matter what happens in FL, OH, CO, or NH.

[ffr]

14. Some similarities in the numbers 2008 v 2012

For context, 2008 was quite close to 2012, except in 2008 there were fewer non-partisan/IAP/Other voters. Only one way to be sure NC goes blue (2008 Obama won by ~14,200 votes), GOTV. Every voter in every city, in every county across the state.

2012 EV as of 11/04/12
~62.7% of likely voters from 2008 - 2,728,635 votes cast.

Democratic lead
> 440,600 votes

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 1,300,195 or 47.7 percent (Dems to Reps only 60.2%)
Republican -- 859,520 or 31.5 percent (Dems to Reps only 39.8%)
Others -- 568,920, or 20.9 percent

GMU.EDU 2012 Election Statistics

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2008 EV as of 11/04/08
~73.9% of likely voters from 2004 - 2,623,838 votes cast.

Democratic lead
> 554,942 votes

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 1,347,341 or 51.4 percent (Dems to Reps only 63.0%)
Republican -- 792,399 or 30.2 percent (Dems to Reps only 37.0%)
Others -- 484,098 or 18.5 percent

GMU.EDU 2008 Election Statistics
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