Can someone Explain why the right wont accept that possiblity of a D+(insert figure) electorate

[outsideworld]

Basically every poll that has a D + any figure is bogus because they are anticipating a 2004 electorate that had a R+5 electorate.
Now even if dem turnout is not like 2008 levels do they really think obama and democrats have lost all the D+8 advantage we had in 08?

It just doesnt make sense to me , but yet again when does any right wing model of thought make sense.

[Mr.Turnip]

1. 2004 was an even electorate.

I don't think there has been an R + national electorate in decades.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Because they can't wrap their mind around the idea of Democrats turning out.

Even in 2004, which turned out, unfortunately, to be a Republican year, it was even (37% Democrat, 37% Republican) and there is no indication the Republicans will have near that support ... especially when their party identification is much smaller than it was eight years ago.

What they fail to understand is that most these polls don't weigh party I.D. - they simply are informed by the voter of what party they belong to and generally, which goes under reported, the person will say the party of the candidate they are supporting. So, even if they're registered independent, they might classify themselves a Democrat because they're voting for Obama.

It's no skewing or readjusting. If these people are upset that there is a high Democratic I.D. number ... blame the people for telling the pollster they're Democrats.

[outsideworld]

3. That makes alot of sense

Well they are in for a rude awakening

[freshwest]

4. Delay, etc. promised they'd create a Permanent Republican Majority. They believe it's God's Will.

[TroyD]

5. If the electorate is like 2004, why is Romney polling below Bush in so many states?

Eg. Montana -> Romney is ahead by about 10 points; Bush won it by 20

Eg. Indiana - > Romney is ahead by about 10 points; Bush won it by 20

Eg. Arizona - > Romney is ahead by about 7 points; Bush won it by 10

Eg. New Mexico -> Obama is ahead by about 10 points; Bush won it by 1

Eg. Nebraska -> Romney is ahead by about 15 points; Bush won it by 33

Eg. Iowa - > Obama is ahead by about 3 points; Bush won it by 1

[outsideworld]

6. Wow , had no idea he was doing that

Poorly compared to bush. Thanks for the stats

[4lbs]

7. Obama colored their thinking. Literally.

They cannot fathom a black man getting more votes than a white man in any predominantly white precincts.

Oh, by the way, many of the Repugs still do not accept that Obama won in 2008.

You know, "ACORN! Ac0rn1!!11 Voter fraud!!!11"

blah blah blah

[believer10101]

8. What worries me

is that our polls are using a D+3 to a D+11 (CNN) correction. In early voting, D and R are even. We will need a huge D+ on election day to make these polls work. In 2010 it was actually R+3. Can anyone help me with this?

[Jennicut]

10. In early voting, D and R are not even.

Dems are running ahead of Repubs in every swing state but CO, they are just not running as far ahead as they were in '08. Turnout is up for both Dems and Repubs in early voting and Repubs are more aware of early voting now. But Dems still bring out more voters to early voting.
In 2010, it was even again, not R plus 3.

[modrepub]

9. Probably the same reason

why they won't accept any responsibility for the $16T in debt, highest number of people on food stamps, involvement in contractor supported wars, a four-fold increase in defense spending and poor employment figures. It's like they whitewashed any involvement in government prior to 2008.

[grantcart]

11. For the same reason that many here cannot fathom any type of Republican win.

I can't believe that we aren't winning this by 20 points.

The reality is that we are becoming a more ideologically segregated society. Mostly by geography. California has announced that Republican registrations have fallen way off. If you calculate county by county it is even more radical with the red counties very red and the blue counties very blue. In CA it would be something of a challenge to find someone who is a climate change denier.

If you are in Wyoming or Mississippi, especially a rural area you are going to see a mirror effect.

Then within those geographic areas the social groups that you interact with tend to me of the same kind. Churches used to be more geographic in nature and inside you would find a healthy mixture of opinions. Now people drive miles to make sure they attend the church that reflects their views.

There used to be only 4 channels and basically we all watched the same shows. With hundreds of channels we are all watching the side of the story that we like, FOX and MSNBC grow and CNN is withering, and of course, most people don't watch much news. They get to watch all the football that they want and in between games they can play football on their TV game. If you like talk shows there are 34 Oprah wannabees.

It used to be that there were 4 institutions that mashed society together; Public School, Community Churches, Community Media (newspapers and the local TV), and the army.

Now days we are more involved in our own focused groups and mostly we meet people who are more like us.

Like the people that you are referring to I have a hard time believing that this election isn't going to be a blow out. I do meet some people who are in the middle but I have yet to meet a single person who has one good thing to say about Mitt Romney.

The real challenge in this new socio economic ideological segregation is not to retreat into our comfortable niches but to reach out and confront the remaining side.

[PsychProfessor]

12. This tells you why they will learn nothing

From this election. The far right thinks their views on choice, immigration, same sex marriage, and the role of the federal government represent mainstream America. They will think they lost because Romney wasn't extreme enough. They think America is just as racist as they are. They think we are a center right nation. Even if that was true they are nowhere near center. (In their defense, they have been fed this propaganda by Faux News for years now. They live in an informational bubble where anyone who disagrees with them is a villain and where reality is simply ignored if it does not fit a particular narrative).

[DCBob]

13. Denial.

If they accept that then they know they are finished.