2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:27 AM Nov 2012

Princeton Consortium- Obama: 303 Romney: 235 Meta-margin: Obama +2.84/Bayesian Prediction 99.9%

http://election.princeton.edu/

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Princeton Consortium- Obama: 303 Romney: 235 Meta-margin: Obama +2.84/Bayesian Prediction 99.9% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 OP

wow! renate Nov 2012 #1

Those Modelers Are Extraordinarily Smart DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #5

So for the first time the Princeton prediction is actually a few EV less for Obama TroyD Nov 2012 #2

But Princeton is more certain of outcome than Silver is smorkingapple Nov 2012 #3

These Models Are A Bit Like Flying DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #4

I am becoming a Bayesian! nt PsychProfessor Nov 2012 #6

renate

(13,776 posts)

1. wow!

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:19 AM

Nov 2012

I just read Nate Silver's book and I don't understand why he chooses not to use Bayes' theorem to make his predictions (I guess to be conservative), but it seemed a reasonable approach, and I'm happy to see these super-optimistic numbers!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)

5. Those Modelers Are Extraordinarily Smart

Reply to renate (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:05 AM

Nov 2012

Wang, Linzer, Silver, the csu guys, et cetera...

If they are wrong then science and math are....

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

2. So for the first time the Princeton prediction is actually a few EV less for Obama

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 06:05 AM

Nov 2012

Than Nate?

(Obama is at 307 EV at 538 right now).

smorkingapple

(827 posts)

3. But Princeton is more certain of outcome than Silver is

Reply to TroyD (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 07:32 AM

Nov 2012

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)

4. These Models Are A Bit Like Flying

Reply to smorkingapple (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:03 AM

Nov 2012

Intellectually you know your chances of arriving alive are damn near infinite but not quite. But you are still a tad bit concerned.

PsychProfessor

(204 posts)

6. I am becoming a Bayesian! nt

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:07 AM

Nov 2012

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