2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton's odds at presidency rise 7% (62% to 69%) in one day
Completely coinciding with Trump's horrific double down on the "Mexican" judge in the Trump U case and Hillary's slam dunk Trump speech.
The odds will go up again when she secures the nomination and Bernie is removed from the predictive sites. Most, if not, all, of his 4% chance at presidency will be reallocated to Hillary.
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
BootinUp
(47,186 posts)qdouble
(891 posts)Probably another bump when Bernie gets around to endorsing her. I suspect the extreme Hillary haters will throw Bernie and the entire democratic party under the bus then, but most sane democrats and center/left independents will jump on board and her probability should be 80-90%.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Arkansas Granny
(31,528 posts)will actually pull the lever for him in the privacy of the voting booth.
thesquanderer
(11,991 posts)Dem had 73% chance of winning on May 9, and dropped down, but is now back up, 72-73% in the last 24 hrs. Last 24 hrs also has 4% to 5% chance of the Dem candidate being Bernie... in fact the chance of Dem victory dropping from 73 to 72 at 6:52 this morning roughly coincided with the odds of Bernie nomination dropping back from 5% to 4% updated at 6:37. So it seems that some of the occasional higher odds of Dem success may also be attributable to variations in the odds of Bernie getting the nom.