2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPredictwise gives Sanders a 5% chance of winning the Dem nomination.
That's more than I'd expected, and actually up a bit from where it's been, it was down at 2% on the 29th.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)There are lots of reasons not to put stock in this one. Also their predictions are already way off:
SCantiGOP
(13,873 posts)That's certainly the first source of information I would look for in election analysis.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)They tweaked their model until they found a way to fit both the actual outcomes of previous elections and their desired outcome for this one. They also got their primary result predictions laughably wrong, saying that he would get 100% of delegates in states he ended up losing and that he'd states he lost in landslides.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)No
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)Last edited Sat Jun 4, 2016, 07:29 AM - Edit history (1)
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)ciaobaby
(1,000 posts)baldguy
(36,649 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)www.predictwise.com
it changes all the time, but you can click "more data" and see where it was on different days.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)I don't understand how giving you the web site with the data can possibly be a fail. It says 4% at the moment, but you can click "more data" and see that it was 5% at 2:34 this morning, which is what it was when I posted. It does fluctuate. I was surprised to see it as high as 5% last night, after being as low as 2% in the recent past. Even 4% is surprising.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)So Skinner, will you reconsider June 16 please?
DrDan
(20,411 posts)thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)re: "that dwindles to nothing after Tuesday's delegates are counted"
I think if he loses CA, it will drop down to 1%, 2% tops on Tuesday. If he wins CA and does reasonably well elsewhere, I think it stays up at 4-5%. Of course, it's not a good bet regardless!
DrDan
(20,411 posts)SCantiGOP
(13,873 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)Response to thesquanderer (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)the historical data at that same link. Though even 4% is kind of surprisingly high.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)They make big money....wonder why they aren't?hmmm..
thesquanderer
(11,992 posts)But no one should bet more than they're willing to lose... and even Sanders supporters generally agree the odds are against them...