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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum‘Gold Standard’ Poll Shows Clinton and Sanders Neck and Neck in California
Gold Standard Poll Shows Clinton and Sanders Neck and Neck in CaliforniaThe tale of the California Democratic presidential primary has been Bernie Sanders's slow whittling away at an initially large Hillary Clinton lead built on the state's highly diverse demographics. Clinton has led in all 18 public polls of California taken this year, and still leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average by six points (49-43). But the much-awaited final poll by the Field Organization, probably the most respected public-opinion operation in the country, shows Sanders pulling to within the margin of error, with Clinton hanging on to a 45-43 lead.
The coalitions put together by the two candidates are very familiar to anyone following the Democratic race. Sanders is running up big margins among under-30 voters (75-15) and to a lesser extent registered independents (54-27), while Clinton is dominating among over-65 voters (56-28) and holding a healthy lead among registered Democrats (49-40). Clinton's traditional strength among minority voters is ebbing a bit; she leads among African-Americans (57-36) and Latinos (46-42), but trails Sanders among Asian-Americans (34-47), who represent a higher percentage of the likely primary electorate (11 percent) than do black voters (9 percent). Clinton actually leads overall among non-Latino white voters 44-43, probably a tribute to the relatively advanced age of white voters. There's the usual gender gap as well, and it, too, is strongly influenced by age: Sanders leads among under-40 men by 71-19, while Clinton leads among women over 40 by 57-29. Regionally, Clinton is ahead in Los Angeles County and the Central Valley, while Sanders's top regions are the San Francisco Bay and the Central Coast...
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/field-poll-very-close-race-in-california.html
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‘Gold Standard’ Poll Shows Clinton and Sanders Neck and Neck in California (Original Post)
Barack_America
Jun 2016
OP
Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)1. Bernie is down 40 points from where he needs to be
There have been 5 polls and Hillary leads in all of them.
Number23
(24,544 posts)4. "Bernie is down 40 points from where he needs to be" You are exactly right.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)2. Will a close win by Sanders have enough of an effect
on the delegate count?
I understand it's exciting just in the Horse Race sense
but doesn't Sanders really need some blowouts to close the
delegate count.
tandem5
(2,072 posts)3. I magically predict that SurveyUSA will say Clinton +15 for their last poll.
That is if they have one.
dwrjr
(24 posts)5. Subtle influence of word choice there
"to a lesser extent... (54-27)" {Sanders}
v.s.
"is dominating... (56-28)" {Clinton}
Etc., etc.
The spin in this primary is making me dizzy.