2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama 347 Romney 191
With popular vote= O 53% to R 47%
This what I think will happen minimally. But, what I hope happens is a a vast sea of blue with even more popular votes.
flamingdem
(39,321 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)He wont win any of those red states
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)Maybe IN... and maybe Akin could give us MO.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Not this year
johnlucas
(1,250 posts)Arizona is my favorite to flip.
I look for Georgia as a long shot.
I have heard others also throw South Carolina in there too.
I like that 347 number but it's still too low for me.
The power of a 15% to 20% Popular Vote Obama lead makes that number too low.
ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE
I'm looking for a number closer to 400 like say 385 or something.
Obama got 365 Electoral Votes last time around with his 7% Popular Vote lead.
John Lucas
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Who have you heard saying South Carolina? Who in their right mind makes that kind of insane prediction?
johnlucas
(1,250 posts)Who in their right mind makes that kind of insane prediction?
Well a poster who replied to that Landslide thread I put up.
Name was rbrnmw.
I love the doubt. I just love it.
In that same thread I respond to a poster named onenote who had a similar sentiment about me calling for Georgia.
I then break down the Presidential voting history of North Carolina all the way back from 1928 to 2008 to show how Obama turning North Carolina his way was unprecedented.
Even Bill Clinton couldn't flip that state. Neither time.
Read it for yourself & tell me what you think.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251130631#post82
John Lucas
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Obama won by .3
It wasnt a shocking result. The polls showed that it would be an absolute tossup.
You're talking about a state like South Carolina, and for that matter Georgia. If the Obama team thought they had a chance, dont you think they would be spending any time at all there?
johnlucas
(1,250 posts)How did Obama pull off Iowa of all places?
How did Obama switch Ohio?
How did Obama get Indiana?
How did Obama pull New Mexico?
TURNOUT is what's gonna flip those states.
And look all over this forum for people posting videos & pics of people standing in lines literally miles long waiting patiently to vote.
Those people are mostly Obama voters.
Dewey once defeated Truman according to the polls, remember that.
And Carter would defeat Reagan according to those polls too.
I use those polls for toilet paper.
There will be major state-flipping surprises on Election Day just you wait & see.
John Lucas
tweeternik
(255 posts)I live in South Carolina ... no way will a majority of these people be voting for the President. Not AZ either, at least not this year. Probably not NC as well; FL very close. BUT, also no way Obama will lose the election. Four more years! Just vote!!
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)We'll win and do well, but getting FL, NC and VA is a real stretch.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)FL and NC will be tough.
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)whttevrr
(2,345 posts)They are close and the GOTV is strong with this one.
Florida could definitely go blue. People are really upset about Republicans trying to suppress voting.
There will be a backlash to the Republican Malfeasance.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)Hehehe! Gotta give 'em a teaser!
And I posted the link at the BOG (Barack Obama Group)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/11026204
johnlucas
(1,250 posts)John Lucas
world wide wally
(21,754 posts)intheflow
(28,501 posts)whttevrr
(2,345 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)mnhtnbb
(31,404 posts)IrishSean723
(26 posts)but a sweep of every single swing state is something I have a hard time believing will happen. Florida and NC will be tough and Colorado isn't exactly a safe bet either(if the polls are to be trusted). I think Obama will win, but it'll be because of OH and VA.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Andy Stanton
(264 posts)Though I think NC and Florida are a real stretch.
lordcommander
(215 posts)meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)They said it is never polled because of laws and one was finally conducted for Mourdock and Donnelly. Donnelly is double digits ahead so maybe that might help Obama. He did win it in 2008 afterall.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)State do-not-call? How did the polls get around the law for polling Donnelly/Mourdock?
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)No robocalls are allowed. So there can be no robocall polls unless a real live person asks first if the person will do an automated poll. And there was one other thing that I can't remember that prevents easy polling in Indiana like in other states. So this most recent poll is the first in months.
I tried to search online but couldn't find it. I know Rachel talked about it Thurs or Friday on her show. She said nothing about the state going for Obama, but that's just a thought I had since it hasn't been polled for presidential election at all and it went to Obama in 2008.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)Thanks for posting about it. I'll dig through the new tv.msnbc.com site and see if I can find the segment. I know from work that there are both federal and state do-not-call lists (implying that states can impose statewide restrictions specific to their residents in addition to the federal ones), but never looked into what that entails.
Appreciate that heads up!
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)I thought it was interesting but was in the kitchen and couldn't hear really well. That's why I can't remember the second thing Rachel said regarding Indiana polling laws.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)I might look around a bit more. But if Tuesday comes and Obama wins, then I guess I'm not really concerned about Indiana polling
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)It was on her website under weird state election rules.
It's what I said, there is a law in Indiana where not automated dialing isn't allowed. Either the reciever of the call needed to give permission in advance or a live person must call and get permission to be on the list for automated calls. So it's very expensive to conduct polls in the state of Indiana. The one that just was done on the senate race was all manual and live person.
Nationally, Indiana isn't polled because of this law.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)I know in the grand scheme, this is a trivial issue, but I greatly appreciate having this knowledge/information.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)Hope I am wrong! I'd much rather see your map.
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251210551
That is one person, and I just saw a ticker that said the Obama Campaign has contacted 40% of eligible voters. I think the GOTV will overcome the polls and pessimism of the Romney / Ryan Road to Ruin.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)I honestly thought NC was a goner this year. WOW!!!!
Logical
(22,457 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)those showing up winning Ohio, etc.
joejoejoe
(29 posts)Ambitious! An Obama win, but cant see him winning North carolina!
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)I think that's a bit too optimistic. I still think Rmoney will pull out a win in NC and FL. However, I believe Obama will win OH, WI, IA, NV, and NH. VA and CO are toss-ups. Barring an upset in PA, MI, or MN, Obama will have well over the 270 electoral votes he'll need to win a second term.
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)I was registered as a Republican for many years. I know others who are just as disgusted as I am by what has been done to the Republican Party. It was not founded on the principles it now espouses.
I do not believe The White Male Lie. More Republicans will vote for Obama than anyone thinks.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)...and I've been wondering why the hell they haven't come over to the Democratic Party where they BELONG.
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)But whatever it ends up being... It will be an Obama win.
Response to whttevrr (Original post)
Post removed
whttevrr
(2,345 posts)But it looks like if Obama can pick up a few more votes in the final tally...
Romney might hit the magic percentage:
47%
From huff post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/who-won-the-popular-vote-2012_n_2087038.html
(UPDATE: As of 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Obama has widened his popular vote lead. He now leads 60,193,076 or 50.4% to 57,468,587 or 48.1% with nearly all precincts reporting. Still no official word yet, however.)
(UPDATE (2): As of Noon on Friday, with nearly all votes in, Obama assuredly will win the popular vote, leading Romney by a count of 61,173,739 or 50.5% to 58,167,260 or 48.0%. At this point, a few final votes are being counted and then all that's left is for the results to be officially certified.)
48.4% to 48.1% to 48.0% to ?? I hope it goes down to 47% in the final tally.