2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGallup says Obama closed deficit in 'swing states' now tied with Romney
Remember they are putting their full national poll out tomorrow:
4:08PM EST November 4. 2012 - WASHINGTON -- Voters in the nation's key battlegrounds have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago, and they finally have made up their minds about President Obama and Mitt Romney.
It's a tie: 48%-48%.
The even split among likely voters in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States reflects gains in the campaign's final weeks by Obama, who has closed a 4-percentage-point deficit from early October in the wake of a disappointing first presidential debate. Most of the interviews were completed before Hurricane Sandy hit, and the president's disaster response may have bolstered his standing a bit since then.
MORE: Electoral Vote Tracker
The 11th and final Swing States Poll, a USA TODAY series that began a year ago, finds voters increasingly excited about the election and settled in their support. They say they have a clear idea what each candidate would do if elected though that has caused some alarm. Most express concern that a President Romney would return to failed GOP policies and that a re-elected Obama would rely too much on Big Government.
As Election Day approaches, Obama leads 50%-46% among registered voters. That's the first time since Romney clinched the Republican nomination last spring that either candidate has reached the 50% threshold and the biggest margin during that time.
Obama has improved his standing in the past few weeks by regaining support among women in the swing states. The gender gap that is, the disparity between the way men and women vote stands at historically high levels after narrowing in the early October. Obama now leads among women by 16 points; Romney leads among men by 10.
Romney leads among white men by a yawning 27 points; the two candidates divide white women evenly. The former Massachusetts governor leads among independent voters by a single point.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/
fugop
(1,828 posts)... How thankful are you that Sandy gave your tracker an excuse?
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)Many people here called it long ago that this is just what gallup will do.
OhZone
(3,212 posts)DarthDem
(5,256 posts)I rec'd only because so many of us called this. Oh, Gallup. How can I miss you if you don't go away?
And note that this is apparently not their final national "poll," now excitedly expected by no one before they crap that out tomorrow. I imagine Mittens will "have" a small lead in that one because Newport just won't be able to bring himself to show a tie for the socialist black guy.
What tools!
Azathoth
(4,611 posts)reflection
(6,286 posts)dumbasses.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)Stooges. The marketplace, now flooded with better polling firms, should put them out of our misery.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)whatevah Gallup, whatevah.
budkin
(6,714 posts)speedoo
(11,229 posts)Their credibility is gone.
outsideworld
(601 posts)iloveObama12
(421 posts)Gallup Was Definitely A Complete Joke!
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)blazeKing
(329 posts)That's just not possible with women voting in a greater percent than men which happens every election.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...there's no way they can have it less that R+2 or +3 in their final tracker. In other words, they're not going to pull a Ras and, instead, are going all-in with a call for Rmoney. Meaning that they're either come out of Tuesday looking like geniuses who were the only ones to get the race right, or the laughingstock of the polling industry. (Although, I suppose, they could hedge their bets by giving Obama the lead among RVs -- and then explain the result as "higher-than-expected turnout." )
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Does that mean RCP will finally get rid of that week-old Romney +5 poll?