2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFrom LA Times Poll: Of those who already voted, Bernie 48, Hillary 43.
https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/1eu09pms0l0atruk3qu9bdpynsun1fvwNow there's an interesting result.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)is wrong.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Or the early voting demographic might be tough to sample.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)NWCorona
(8,541 posts)This is the second poll in a row where Bernie leads among Latinos.
Duval
(4,280 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)If she gets the nomination, I bet half the Bernie delegates don't even show up at the convention.
6chars
(3,967 posts)LA Times poll conducted May 16-31,
WSJ conducted May 29-31.
Guess we'll find out later.
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)I wonder if conducting a poll over a longer span allows us to get a more diverse sample and thus more accurate?
6chars
(3,967 posts)that wouldn't be subject to opinions fluttering around with the latest stories, and the shorter poll at the end of the period would be more reliable because it would include all people who have already voted in equal proportions, while the longer period poll would over represent people who voted early (because they would answer that they already voted whether they were called on May 16 or May 31).
but no poll is really that reliable, as we learn repeatedly. so we shall see.
thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)One of the big things he's had to deal with all year is that, in a given state, by the time he starts holding rallies, advertising, participating in local town halls/debates, firing people up and moving polls in his direction, often a bunch of people have already voted, and those early votes that were cast before all that activity would tend to favor Hillary, especially earlier in the process when he wasn't well known at all.
thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)itsrobert
(14,157 posts)2 percent for another candidate
2 percent undecided? But they already voted?
5 percent refuse to answer
1 percent will not vote (But they already voted?
for 101 percent