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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIntrade: Presidential Election 65.8% to 34.%
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Intrade: Presidential Election 65.8% to 34.% (Original Post)
SHRED
Nov 2012
OP
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)1. You would think that it would be higher
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual
Betfair is predicting 76.6%. Nice arbritrage opportunity for those outside the U.S. or those set up with an offshore account.
Any inbalance reflects a bias towards the leader. EU money should be flowing into Intrade to bring these two to the same level.
Betting pools obviously reflect the desires and are not always rationale. Europeans really want Obama to win. Romney has near 50% support in the U.S. (even though I understand that Intrade is also illegal for U.S. residents).
Betfair is predicting 76.6%. Nice arbritrage opportunity for those outside the U.S. or those set up with an offshore account.
Any inbalance reflects a bias towards the leader. EU money should be flowing into Intrade to bring these two to the same level.
Betting pools obviously reflect the desires and are not always rationale. Europeans really want Obama to win. Romney has near 50% support in the U.S. (even though I understand that Intrade is also illegal for U.S. residents).
Logical
(22,457 posts)2. I think some GOP idiots just are betting for Romney out of false hope.
gravity
(4,157 posts)3. I think Conservatives like using Intrade
Ever since they totally failed the Supreme Court ACA decision, I always assumed Intrade to learn right.
I don't know if there is big money trying to manipulate it or just lots of delusional right wing traders, but it is an outlier compared to other betting sites.
EmeraldCityGrl
(4,310 posts)4. Las Vegas odds were in Obama's favorite. These people don't mess around.
Last edited Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:22 PM - Edit history (1)
Obama 3:5 Romney 4:1 as of yesterday.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)5. Those odds do not reflect Obama as favored
Who is paying 4:1 Obama? I'd like a piece of that.
EmeraldCityGrl
(4,310 posts)6. OOPS! Reversed the odds will correct.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)7. Shucks, I was checking my bank balance
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)8. Intrade isn't a poll. It's people putting money in..
and last week someone put 18k on Romney. It's just another mind-fuck that the billionaires are playing on you. It's not important.