2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBaydoun/Foster (D) is out with another one of their bizarre polls for Michigan
Could someone please find out what is up with this firm? They are supposedly a Democratic firm (Thus the D inserted after their name at RCP), and yet they have consistently posted some of the worst Dem numbers all year.
They are an even more suspicious pollster than Rasmussen or Gravis. Much worse, in fact.
Today they have Romney (+1) in Michigan and Stabenow (+6). They are the only pollster to show Romney ahead in Michigan right now and the only pollster to show Stabenow anywhere near that low.
What is going on here?
http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/link/597723/final-michigan-election-poll-for-2012-election
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)michello
(132 posts)researched it first before you posted it. Duh..
TroyD
(4,551 posts)As I said elsewhere on this thread, NATE SILVER himself includes this pollster, so it's become part of the dialogue out there that affects the polling averages.
michello
(132 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)insulting and childish.
michello
(132 posts)but that's the way of the world. I'm still going to use 'Duh' whether you think it childish or not. When you pay my bills then maybe just maybe I will care about how you feel about a silly ass word called 'Duh'.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)you've confused Democratic Underground with the comment sections on YouTube.
michello
(132 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)are better at finding info that others.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)They are a mess and just ignore them. They must like putting out the worst polls of all time because no one takes them seriously, except maybe a few wingnuts. I think one of the guys has voted for Dems and Repubs and then claims to be a Dem. It's nonsense.
Nate Silver takes them apart here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/aug-27-michigan-isnt-a-tossup/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Their methodology is laughable. Undercounts minorities and voters under 50.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Is it because of the 'don't ignore any data' rule?
Mass
(27,315 posts)And his model still gives MI to O, and still will tomorrow.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Even averaging in plus R 1 MI poll in the mix.
Thanks for finding this!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)So they end up affecting the averages.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Marsala
(2,090 posts)They're ridiculously off.
Mass
(27,315 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)couldn't find much.
RomneyLies
(3,333 posts)Nate Silver comments about their polling and their house effect when they released a similarly weird Florida poll:
With all that said, we still include the poll in our forecast model. (Ive noticed that some other polling aggregation Web sites have not listed the Foster McCollum White Baydoun survey, although Im not sure if thats an intentional or unintentional oversight.)
Its probably a defensible call either way, but our view is that wed rather deal with weird polls in a systemic way rather than having to make an editorial judgment about them.
For instance, we have our house effects adjustment, which corrects for most of these tendencies. Based on this poll, and a prior survey the firm conducted in Michigan, we calculate the firms house effect as leaning Republican by roughly 11 percentage points relative to the overall consensus.
We do not subtract out the entire 11-point house effect from the polling firms results the model allows polling firms to retain some of their house effect but the model does adjust the poll substantially, treating it as about a 7-point lead for Mr. Romney rather than a 15-point one. Thats still a very good number for Mr. Romney enough to make him a slight favorite in our forecast for the state but at least a little bit more reasonable relative to common sense.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)PPP's poll has blacks making up 16% of the electorate, Baydoun/Foster has it at 8%
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)FBaggins
(26,757 posts)Which calls the PPP result into question as well.
Luckily... Halfway between +6 and -1 still isn't a concern.