2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPOLITICO/GWU Tracking Poll - TIE (Obama 48, Romney 48)
11/4/12 7:14 AM EST
DENVER With just two days to go until Election Day, Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied in the race for president.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters taken Monday through Thursday of this past week shows the two presidential candidates tied at 48 percent.
Its a fitting end to a presidential contest that has teetered on parity in recent months Obama was ahead by one point in the Battleground poll last week, while Romney edged the president by two points the week before.
History shows that most of the three percent of remaining undecided voters probably wont go to the polls on Tuesday, so the winner will be determined by which candidate can turnout more of their supporters in the 10 or so competitive states.
Obama continues to be perceived as the frontrunner. Regardless of who theyre supporting, 53 percent of voters say they believe the nations first African-American president will win a second term. Historically, this question offers a good predictor of who winds up the victor.
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Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party.
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An identical number approve the presidents job performance, 49 percent, as disapprove.
Romney and Obama are now at parity on likability: 51 percent view Obama favorably while 50 percent view Romney favorably. Meanwhile, 45 percent of respondents view Obama unfavorably and 44 percent view Romney unfavorably.
Democrats continue to have an advantage on early voting, but Republicans closed the gap somewhat over the past week.
A full 27 percent of those surveyed said theyve already cast their ballot. Of them, Obama leads 50 to 48 percent.
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More:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83275.html
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)All national polls are worthless, especially one that only samples 1000 people across the entire country. That is, on average, 20 people from each state.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Which is the main reason I posted it (it correlates with the Political Wire article about Independents I posted earlier).
Several pollsters, POLITICO, PPP & Zogby, have picked up a move towards Obama with Independents. Previously Romney had big leads with Indies, and now several pollsters show Obama is either Tied with Romney, or slightly ahead.
If that is the case it is one of the most significant developments of the week.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)Now they it's clear Obama is gonna win they wanna follow a winner. Same shit happened when Obama had bad first first debate and everyone freaked out. We're a front running nation. We want to be on the side of the person we think will win which is why they mention that who the nation thinks will win is a very good predictor of who actually does win
TroyD
(4,551 posts)As they say, usually the person the public thinks will win, DOES win.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)making it pretty hard for them to claim they are still undecided.
"independent" and "undecided" do not mean the same thing, but these terms are often used interchangeably in error.
"Independent" normally means a choice at registration time to not be listed with any party. "Undecided" means exactly that.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)believing that republicans will vote in higher numbers or else I would think Obama would be ahead.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)a huge and consequential development!