Where's the Obama coalition?

[Exilednight]

Dem. Disaster: 115,000+ black and millennial voters from 2008 primary skipped voting in 2016


Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. Democrats liked Obama and came to out to vote for him. The Obama coalition of Generation-Y and African Americans is especially disenfranchised — nearly 46,000 millennials and 70,000 blacks that voted in 2008, stayed at home in the first four primary states.

Turnout in the 2016 Democratic primary has been abysmal compared to 2008 when Democrats came out in droves for President Obama’s message of “Hope and Change.” Even though just four states have voted so far, turnout is down by about 330,000 or about 26 percent compared to 2008.

Millennials and African Americans have been fueling this trend of not turning out to vote for Sanders or Clinton the way they did for Obama.

Gen-Y Democrats participation dropped significantly from the last primary. When you compare exit polls and turnout numbers, about 22,000 Millennials in Iowa, 4,000 in New Hampshire, 800 in Nevada, and 19,000 in South Carolina took a pass on voting in 2016 even though they participated in 2008.

http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/02/29/dem-disaster-115000-black-millennial-voters-2008-primary-skipped-voting-2016/


It appears the Obama coalition is failing to vote and is killing the narrative that Obama voters are flocking to Hillary in mass. The truth is less are voting and those that are voting are splitting with younger voters going to Bernie and older voters to Hillary.

Will they turn out for the GE?

Probably not, especially considering that they haven't turned out for any election since 2008 when Obama was not on the ballot.

[beachbumbob]

1. Trump motivates voters for democrats..he alienates more

Everyday....

[Exilednight]

2. What empirical evidence do you base this on?

[beachbumbob]

5. The unusual high unfavorables that keep

Growing among Hispanics and women concerning trump...setting unprecedented levels and those kind of numbers translates into votes....Obama coalition just as strong if not stronger among blacks, women and Hispanics in voting...and supporting Hillary....the so called millennial voters have never made huge impact in voting as they just don't vote and represents the smallest base of actual voters....people over 45 vote...people over 55 vote...

[Fawke Em]

7. I'm over 45 and a woman and I will be going Green if Clinton is the nominee.

I can't stand Trump or Hillary.

[Exilednight]

8. But no polling is showing this is happening. It's pure speculation on your part.

[beachbumbob]

28. Not at all..

Several recent polls conducted verify trumps high..In the 70%+ unfavorables with Hispanic and women voters....record highs

[icecreamfan]

39. The polls actually show Hillary Clinton has lost the age gap that's driven dems the last 3 cycles

[img][/img]

[JRLeft]

11. No one likes Hillary or Donald.

Most likely a low turnout election.

[icecreamfan]

40. I think you're right. Plus Shelby and new voter id laws will also drive down turnout

I'd guess VAP turnout in the low 50s

[JRLeft]

33. I think you meant to reply to someone else.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. It happens

[JRLeft]

36. Don't trip.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. I am not, why I deleted it

phone

[icecreamfan]

41. Voters under 45 have no impact? Wrong. We'd have President McCain and Romney without 18-44. Proof...

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

[bravenak]

3. Where are all these new voters bernie is supposed to bring in?

I guess he should have tried to get us to come out for him. But we are confederates.

[Exilednight]

4. According to exit polls, Bernie is turning out new voters to a far greater degree than Hillary is.

There is a secondary problem, many states have closed primaries and end party registration months ahead of elections.

[bravenak]

18. No where near as good as Obama did.

Probably why Hillary is winning.

[JRLeft]

12. Most new voters are voting for Bernie, but a lot of Obama voters don't care about any of

the candidates who've ran this election cycle. If turnout is low Trump wins.

[bravenak]

19. Trump wins if people LET HIM

We decide with our votes. If peope dont vote against him they can blame themselves.

[Exilednight]

23. I can vote for 3 different people other than trump, and all are votes against him.

[Fawke Em]

6. The Millennials didn't vote for Clinton in 2008 and they won't this year.

Also, Clinton pissed off a lot of Latino(a)s because of her meddling in Honduras.

[JoePhilly]

9. A primary election is not a general election.

[asuhornets]

10. Obama's diverse coalition showed up for Clinton--that's why she's winning...nt

[Exilednight]

13. You didn't read the article, nor have you looked at exit polling.

[Hortensis]

30. Obama's coalition showed up for Hillary.

A huge reason why she's winning. You just wish they'd go away. Well, DUers did, sort of. They're mostly staying the heck away from the bernista riots on most of DU, but you should not mistake that for a major national power groop simply going poof and disappearing altogether. They're around and will be there in November.

[asuhornets]

31. BS supporters luv to tell people how they didn't read the OP...nt

[Garrett78]

14. Yep, that's why she's doing well where Obama did well in '08.

And it makes sense, because there's little that separates them policy-wise.

"In Voter Support, Clinton Is The New Obama"

"Clinton Voters Like Obama More Than Sanders Supporters Do"

And in 2008, many Clinton supporters weren't going to support Obama...until they did.

Lastly, "Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election."

So many silly memes afloat. It's a full time job drowning them.

[Exilednight]

21. The numbers don't lie.

Turnout in the 2016 Democratic primary has been abysmal compared to 2008 when Democrats came out in droves for President Obama’s message of “Hope and Change.” Even though just four states have voted so far, turnout is down by about 330,000 or about 26 percent compared to 2008.

[Bluenorthwest]

26. Except where she's done poorly where Obama did well in 08. Such as Oregon.

Washington. Hawaii. The list goes on. There is nothing to your premise at all. Thin air.

[asuhornets]

32. A full time job indeed...nt

[jwirr]

16. As soon as Bernie entered the race people working on the

WH staff began working for which ever one they preferred. I think the same thing has happened to supporters. We voted for President Obama twice but now we have two very different choices. The coalition is here just not a coalition anymore.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. The party is splitting

and Nevada was the crack heard around the country.

[Starry Messenger]

17. HRC is winning Obama's states and her states in satisfying numbers.

. A New York Times/CBS poll this month found that 72 percent of Sanders supporters would vote for Clinton in the general election

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-26/clinton-fans-in-california-torch-sanders-as-egotistical-and-destructive

I think things will come together just fine.

[BobbyDrake]

20. Choosing not to vote is not disenfranchisement. At all.

Having the right and ability to vote and deciding to not vote is nowhere near the same as having your right to vote delayed or blocked completely.

If it's your first time using a word, look it up first maybe.

[Exilednight]

22. I didn't call it disenfranchisement. Before making accusations you should get your facts straight.

[BobbyDrake]

25. "The Obama coalition of Generation-Y and African Americans is especially disenfranchised"

You know other people can read your comments, right? I have my facts straight. You can't even keep track of what you said and when.

[Exilednight]

42. that's a quote, not a comment.

[BobbyDrake]

48. It's a quote of your commment! You wrote that, then claimed you didn't.

JFC, you're bad at this.

[Exilednight]

49. it's a quote from the article. it's not a comment.

[auntpurl]

24. This article is from February.

So the numbers aren't even close to accurate.

Also, primary voting patterns do not predict GE voting patterns. This is fact and has been proven many times.

[Bluenorthwest]

27. Turnout has been very low in virtually every State, CA looks like it might be the exception

coming up but this is a universal and collective failure in this cycle. Bernie has motivated some new voters but not as many as I'd hoped and the entire primary has not delivered that benefit like it did in 08. Hillary has not been a draw either.

[beachbumbob]

29. Dealing with a bunch that facts truly don't matter...

[Starry Messenger]

35. Not only is this post from Feb., but it is also a rw website.

More garbage on DU from the Bernie wing.

http://redalertpolitics.com/staff/

One of the writers writes for anti-abortion web sites.

Nice.

[Exilednight]

43. more of attack the messenger instead of actually debating the issue. the numbers

Don't lie.

[Starry Messenger]

44. Your side flames up like a dumpster fire over anything they deem rw.

Then post garbage like this--from Feb! which you also didn't address, and demands people refute garbage. No. Either post something reliable, aka, not fascist, or prepare for heavy criticism for catapulting the Republican agenda.

[Exilednight]

46. the numbers have actually gotten worse as time has gone by. the last primary

Saw over a 60 point drop of 2008 Obama supporters.

[Starry Messenger]

47. Thanks for your concern.

[hrmjustin]

45. This is old and from a RW site.