Benchmark Politics model for California: Clinton 56% - Sanders 44%

[brooklynite]

Benchmark Politics ?@benchmarkpol 20m

[Tal Vez]

1. I suspect that there will be a Field poll out soon.

[Uben]

2. That only works if you count all the numbers....

....BUT, if you just count some of the numbers, you can derive at a different solution. People don't realize that if only Sanders' votes are counted, he wins! BIGTIME!

Yeah, I know, you have to count all the numbers for it to be legit. Who made this rule, Clinton? Suppose California is counting ballots and suddenly experiences an earthquake and all ballots are destroyed (or, could be a meteor strike). As it happens, Sanders was ahead at the time of the occurrence, so he wins all delegates. (No proof Clinton received any votes). Bernie wins by default?

Then we have a whole new ballgame!



/sarcasm

[LiberalFighter]

3. That would put the delegates at about Clinton: 273 -- Sanders: 202

Don't know if this will be the result attempted to determine each district based on demographics. Will see how it turns out.

[Txbluedog]

4. That would be a pledged delegate majority just out of Cali alone for her

[LiberalFighter]

5. Yes, if this is close to being right.

For those that don't know. Delegates are allocated proportionately based on district election results for each congressional district and then the PLEO and at-large use the state-wide election results.

One of the quirks is that the fewer delegates to assigned the more likely they will split evenly if is an even number of delegates. 26 districts have even number of delegates and I only have 3 that were tied. More could end up tied. 5 seemed to favor Sanders and 18 seemed to favor Clinton.

The other 27 districts will not end up tied because they have odd number delegates.

[LuvLoogie]

8. She really only needs 40% in Puerto Rico, New Jersey & California.

That gets her past 2026. Everything else is fireworks and ice cream.

[Bluenorthwest]

6. Benchmark! They predicted big Oregon win for Hillary and they cited data about 'early exit polls'

which are impossible here, they took voting patterns that have nothing to do with voter intent and everything to do with geography and age and built that into this narrative of surprise 'It might not be Bernie country after all'. That material was used with the laughable OPB poll as some sort of pitiful script people tried to push. Some DUer kept posting that the 'older counties' were voting more than the 'younger counties' and such. Nonsense, Mad Hatter type stuff.

That was the first I had seen out of Benchmark and it was hilariously disconnected from reality, as the election results demonstrated rather clearly.

[LonePirate]

7. Try again. Their final forecast the day before Oregon had Sanders winning.

From Monday, May 16:

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/732334241158037504

[reddread]

9. off by 5%

good enough?

[LonePirate]

10. That depends on if you demand perfection or in the ballpark for your predictions.

[reddread]

11. that ballpark is a dead heat by their figuring then?

I just want the votes counted. People who pay people to poll are not interested in improving my lot in life.

[LonePirate]

12. I'll put you in the camp who only values predictions when they agree with what you believe.

[reddread]

13. right. the camp that wants the votes counted

and lying cheating bullshit criminalized.
thats my camp, right there.
thats where you can find me anytime you need.