2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math
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Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:
2,383 1,664 = 719
Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:
719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%
You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers you might be thinking that but youd be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clintons support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.
It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You dont have to take my word for it check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.
Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Lets do some more math:
Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which well round up to an even 232.
475 x 0.49 = 232.75
Next, lets add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Lets find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).
Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:
486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%
Now, how likely does that sound? Its not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. Its not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isnt it?
Okay, okay maybe youre thinking, John, I think youre being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California. To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend and since youre so optimistic, lets run those numbers again but this time, lets assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Lets say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:
475 x 0.6 = 285
Now, add the 285 delegates to Clintons current total:
285 + 1,664 = 1,949
But:
2,383 1,949 = 434
So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates shell have to win:
434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%
Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesnt seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?
Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math
If youve found yourself thinking, Well, Sanders wont secure the nomination, either! You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:
2,383 1,371 = 1,012
1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%
Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, John! This is terrible or Haha! Take that, Sanders! I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:
First off, lets acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a contested convention.
Um But John you may be saying, Wont Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?
To which I would reply: Im glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!
Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, lets take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. Id like you to meet the number, 4,051. Thats the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:
4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5
At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, lets take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:
1,016 x .60 = 609.6
Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:
610 + 1,371 = 1,981
1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%
So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, were essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention not so bad, eh? And thats easily within Sanders reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Lets look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):
1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:
711 + 1,371 = 2,082
2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%
If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.
Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in Californias 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, were still essentially looking at a tie. And thats when all hell is going to break loose.
Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.
Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with voting irregularities, polling station closures, and voter roll purges all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.
Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOPs utter defeat in November.
Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands do you think that we wont do the same at the convention?
And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and yes, indeed even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. Ill see you all in Philadelphia.
In Solidarity,
John Laurits
P.S. Please feel totally free to reproduce this article, re-post, re-use, re-cycle, or whatever, in whole or in part credit would be lovely but, ultimately, I dont really care! Do as ye will! Peace!
#SeeYouInPhilly
https://johnlaurits.com/2016/04/28/this-is-what-will-happen-at-the-democratic-convention/
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Go Bernie go!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
B Calm
(28,762 posts)candidate has the required amount of delegates, prematurely calling the primary for Hillary would not be right by any stretch.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)SCantiGOP
(13,871 posts)The most delusional post of the month.
It's over next week, and Bernie will acknowledge the fact.
brush
(53,784 posts)brooklynite
(94,591 posts)It boils down to, Superdelegates will be scared of Bernie's fanboy crowds outside the Convention.
The crowds won't be there.
The Superdelegates won't be scared.
Hillary will be the nominee.
Sparkly
(24,149 posts)brooklynite
(94,591 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard!!!!
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)Think about it...
MSNBC To the deniers... Watch THIS Video... It is not comforting to think that she may well be the Democratic Nominee...
Hillary really betrayed Andrea Mitchell... The entire context of this report was of a solemn nature... A Funeral so to speak...
Andrea Mitchell "I do not see this report as ...ANYTHING BUT... DEVASTATING!"
Chuck Todd "After this I don't think that she could get confirmed for Attorney General!"
Lots of FIBBING by Hillary here.. for more than a year!
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)To keep our chosen candidate from having to endure the inconvenience of being stuck a few delegates short of the nomination. Clinton will wind up with more pledged delegates and more votes than Sanders, and that's good enough. It will be a nasty convention, but that won't stop Clinton.
flor-de-jasmim
(2,125 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)2026 is the magic number for pledged delegates and she will reach that number without much trouble next week.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)as 2026 Sanders and 2025 Clinton (which is quite possible)? Should Hillary still get the nod regardless because she is ahead in Super D's, or should the "2026 magic number" secure the nod for Sanders?
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Out of what is left, it's quite impossible for Sanders to reach 2026 and it's definitely impossible for a near tie to occur. Sanders would have to win 80% in California to get 2026.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)He could reach 2026 by winning 67.5% of the remaining delegates. But, yes, he'd need to do better than that in CA to make up for losing NJ. At least 75%, if not 80%.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)annavictorious
(934 posts)before the polls close in California on June 7.
Skink
(10,122 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)DetlefK
(16,423 posts)But if you write it like that, it looks like Clinton is winning...
YouDig
(2,280 posts)joshcryer
(62,276 posts)This is just yet again Clinton getting a double standard. Obama didn't have the pledged delegate majority in 2008, was only ahead by 62 delegates, and no one questioned the super delegates giving the win to him.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Clinton can and might.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)But she'll get the majority without supers, almost for certain.
Would be good if she outright got the majority with pledged, though. Would shut the idiotic double standard up.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)But that one really isn't a metric, it's just made up nonsense exploiting people's unfamiliarity with the terms. Note the first paragraph above for example, where the nutjob author uses "delegate" to mean both pledged and pledged+super. Really dumb.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Pledged majority (without supers) when CA closes.
It's never made sense to argue pledged only while including supers. Only Clinton gets that double standard.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Right now, Sanders can no longer get to 2,383 via PDs. There aren't enough left. So even using #BernieMath he'd need to rely on SDs to put him over. Hillary only needs 73 or fewer delegates to clinch and there are 806 up for grabs on June 7 alone.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)73 more delegates...it's done....and she'll have hundreds more...and sanders still loses
tandem5
(2,072 posts)realmirage
(2,117 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)What purports to be an exercise in actual math devolves into #berniemath; being able to carry 64% (though it is ~68% now) of the vote, screaming for "re-votes", harping on superdelegates to vote for Bernie regardless of the pledged count, and so on.
I feel pity for people who are actually suckered in by this.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)to show how Hillary stole the nomination. Mark my words.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Some ppl just cannot let go.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)I can already hear the chanting almost two months out.
It will become the chant heard round the world as thousands upon thousands of good US citizens petition the DNC with our voices.
Will the DNC become democratic and listen?
Will the establishment strike back with tear gas and batons?
Will the people prevail, or will democracy be crushed?
This is gonna be exciting as anything most of us have ever seen. Hooray for democracy!
Response to NorthCarolina (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
mythology
(9,527 posts)Clinton has won more open primaries than Sanders has. Clinton has won more open primaries than Sanders has won open and closed primaries.
Objectively Sanders does best in caucuses where fewer voters are able to turnout.