Bernie Has The Advantage in CA Because He Can Draw On Independents

[TomCADem]

While Hillary has tended to win a majority of Democratic votes, Bernie has more appeal among independents. While about 50 percent of Democrats identify themselves as liberal, only about 28 percent of undeclared voters do so. Bernie can draw from anti-Hillary voters among the 70 percent of undeclared voters who identify themselves as moderates or conservative to put him over the top in California to overcome Hillary's advantage among registered Democrats.



http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160522/registered-voters-ranks-soar-as-deadline-nears

About 17.2 million Californians — 70 percent of those eligible — are registered to vote, the secretary of state reported earlier this month. Between April 2012 and April 2016, the percentage of Democratic voters held steadily while the percentage of GOP voters fell and the number of “no party preference” voters grew.

Statewide, roughly four in 10 voters are registered Democrats. About 28 percent are Republican and just under 24 percent are unaffiliated with any party.

A federal lawsuit filed Friday by supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders alleges state officials failed to inform “no party preference” voters they can receive “crossover ballots” to vote in the Democratic, American Independent and Libertarian primaries or that party-affiliated voters can re-register as “no party preference” voters for those primaries.

The plaintiffs include the American Independent Party and the Voting Rights Defense Project, described in the suit as a group aiming to educate voters and boost turnout “for their candidate Bernie Sanders.”

[Tal Vez]

1. My understanding is that independents have to request a Democratic ballot.

If that's true, it might significantly reduce the number of independent voters. A lot of people vote by mail here.

[WhiteTara]

2. and many don't even check the rules

and just grumble. I know some people personally who are rather intelligent but have no idea what the rules of voting in the democratic primary are.

[LenaBaby61]

6. That is correct....

A person voting for Bernie HAD up until May 23rd to request a Democratic ballot so they could vote for Bernie if they were Independents. I've seen in some quarters where Bernie supporters said once again, they're vote has been taken from them--like in Ny, Nevada and Kentucky (I thought that canvassing showed Hillary won Kentucky), and that they're the victims of voter fraud/voter suppression.

I've lived in California all my life 55 years and have voted since 1980, and I've never had an issue with voting here in California because I take the actual TIME to know and have educated myself on how voting procedures work in my state--even before the advent of computers etc. I always called into the country registrars office to make SURE my voting status was active and to make sure I was Identified as a Democrat. And NOW with it being the computer age, you can check your voting status ON LINE, call in if you want to. So many ways to make sure your vote counts. And, If you value your vote ENOUGH you'll know HOW to vote and HOW to cast your ballot so your vote is HEARD. I know voter fraud/suppression exists, but just because YOU don't know how to vote, doesn't mean you're a victim of voter fraud/suppression. It means you don't know enough or care enough to know HOW to vote properly. That kind of "ignorance about voting" if you will is YOUR fault.

What it boils down is that some folks don't care ENOUGH to know how to vote, or want to blame it on others because they don't know the rules of voting in a particular state.

[ucrdem]

11. Yep. He's targeting indies but to vote for him they have to request a Dem primary ballot

and the deadline was May 23:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/political-parties/no-party-preference/

Which will probably skew the voting in Hillary's favor as she's targeting registered Democrats which I can attest to having made calls for Hillary using a script that begins "I see you're a registered Democrat" (paraphrasing).

p.s. California's motor-voter law is fairly new (effective Jan. 1, 2016), but it turns out that the state with with oldest motor-voter law, meaning voters can register by checking a box on their driver's license application, is surprise, Oregon.

[msongs]

3. how peculiar that he was an independent, wants independent votes, and sold out his values to run as

a democrat because that's where the $$ is

[Wilms]

14. Blargle bsefit ldrety. n/t

[DJ13]

4. Why should that be an advantage for Bernie over Hillary?

Hillary needs to attract independents in a GE, shouldnt she be capable of attracting them by now?

[floppyboo]

5. Don't you think that is GREAT! 2 Diametric points of ideology agreeing on process!?!?!

[pmorlan1]

7. Sorry off topic

I was looking for something else on line and I ran across this Hillary Scheduled Events page. I was stunned to see how many fundraisers are scheduled. Two of them were actually out of the country.

https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

[TomCADem]

8. Well, Then Bernie Should Definitely Win Big in CA

...with Hillary saving money for the general election, and the bigger pool of voters to draw from, Bernie should run up the score while Hillary is out and about as you note.

[pmorlan1]

9. Her Campaign Events

do not appear on her schedule until a day or two before she has them. Are you trying to downplay a Hillary loss in CA? It sure sounds like it.

[TomCADem]

12. HuffPo - A Bernie Win in California Could Crush Clinton’s Presidential Chances

He is going all-in on California and is dumping his entire budget on it, as well as campaigning here 24/7. He has nothing to lose. Bernie and Trump are trading talking points for attacking Hillary, and she is trying to save money for the General Election thinking that even if she loses CA, she is ahead on pledged delegates.

Calling the facts is neither downplaying or overplaying. Overplaying would be to say that with a CA win, Bernie automatically gets the nomination. Conversely, HuffPo notes says, "A Bernie Win in California Could Crush Clinton’s Presidential Chances." So, my take is that Democrats are pretty screwed. Bernie could not overtake Hillary among Democrats even though over 50 percent self-identify as liberal, so he has to rely on anti-establishment types to stay close. Conversely, Hillary played too nice with Bernie early on, and should have attacked him, even if it meant alienating folks, in order to put him away earlier. Now, he thinks he is unbeatable in the GE given his relatively high positives, which are due in large part because he has not had millions in negative adds dumped on him.

They are two flawed candidates, and thanks to the ineptitude of the Democratic party, there is a good chance we are going to end up with a Donald Trump as President. And they can point fingers at each other, but they were both flawed. Oh well, there is always Elizabeth Warren in 2020. Now, if you are happy with this State of Affairs, then good for you.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/carbonatedtv/a-bernie-win-in-californi_b_10155072.html

For someone who has been losing ground to Trump in many recent polls, it’s become obvious that she needs Sanders voters who are simply not coming on board.

According to analysis by the New York Times, “The most recent wave of national surveys shows Mrs. Clinton winning just 55 to 72 percent of Mr. Sanders’s supporters. She’s faring far worse among young and liberal voters than one would expect.”

If Clinton cannot gain the support of all the Democrats, along with a moderate number of Independents for the general election, she will fare very poorly against Trump.

A Sanders win in California would truly unearth the weaknesses that lie in Clinton’s candidacy; she has difficulty with crucial blocs of Democratic-leaning voters, and that should be a troubling reality for Clinton-backers.

[anotherproletariat]

10. As a Hillary supporter, I agree that Sanders has an advantage in CA, but not the almost 70%

he would need in CA and all the other remaining states. But I think we can all agree that if Hillary gets even 40% in CA, that should be considered a victory for her.