Reuters/Ipsos Virginia (D)48-($)45 Ohio (D)46-($)45 Florida (D)47-($)47

[MyNameIsKhan]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/112033296/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-State-Polling-11-03-12

Early Vote leads
VA 53-43
OH 61-33
FL 51-46
CO 50-43

[regnaD kciN]

1. Fuck...that Ohio total is just too close...

Especially since you can probably tack on a couple of points for Rmoney through voter suppression.



ON EDIT: That poll seems to have a very tight LV screen -- Obama is +8 in RV, but only +1 in LV? Plus, I notice he's cleaning Rmoney's clock among independents by a 2:1 margin (46-23) but, I guess, they count a large chunk of pro-Obama independents as "unlikely."

[itsrobert]

2. How can Ohio end up that close with that lead?

Dirty Tricks?

[regnaD kciN]

5. See my note above...

An effective R+7 LV screen.

[vdogg]

7. That's their LV screen

RV has us ahead by 8. Split the difference and we're prob really ahead by 4, which is in line with other polls.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

16. The screen is there to game the narrative

Gotta keep it close to get the clickety clicks on the tubes.

[michello]

3. So the early votes are not factored in?

[LisaL]

6. They are.

It's an on-line poll.

[regnaD kciN]

9. They are...

The topline figure counts them, presumably as LV, which makes their R+7 screen even more bizarre.

[Third Doctor]

4. This is one poll. We have seen several recently that has Obama up by more than one point .

Imo this still plays into the narrative that Obama is leading in Ohio.

[Sugarcoated]

17. Eggzactly

It's the trend of the all the latest polls, and the trend is Obama with a lead, and always has been.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Lets not forget Obama is +3 in Virginia

A win in VA or OH and we get to 270.

[regnaD kciN]

13. Actually, VA has 13 EV, while OH has 18...

...so we'd need one additional swing state (other than New Hampshire) to make up for it.

[helpisontheway]

10. He is winning Ohio by 8 with RV. Nt

[LisaL]

11. They need to get out and vote.

We are even ahead in FL with registered voters.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. People need to stop focusing on just one poll ... especially an online poll.

[Third Doctor]

14. That's exactly my point.

[regnaD kciN]

15. FWIW, this poll has been among the most bearish on Obama...

...with the exception of Rasmussen and the Baby Rases. For the last two days, they had it at O+2, so a one-point shift is likely statistical noise.