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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFortune: Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right
Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right
http://fortune.com/2016/05/25/election-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/
There were some early signs several weeks ago that suggested Trump might be more competitive in a general election than some soothsayers were predicting. There was a George Washington University Battleground poll that had shown Clinton with a statistically insignificant three-point lead over Trump, a Quinnipiac poll taken in early May that showed Clinton and Trump running dead even in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and an earlier Rasmussen polllater widely dismissedthat showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat. But for months, most national polls have shown Trump trailing by anywhere from 8 to 12 points among registered voters, a margin confirmed by the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, and which, for a stretch from February to April, had Clinton leading in every head-to-head matchup.
That appears to have changedand changed dramatically. Within the last 10 days, five polls have shown the race essentially a dead heat, with Trump actually leading by statistically insignificant margins in three of these polls.
The Wall Street Journal-NBC News: Clinton 46-Trump 43
The Washington PostABC News: Clinton 44-Trump 46
Fox News: Clinton 42-Trump 45
Rasmussen: Clinton 37-Trump 42
The New York TimesCBS News: Clinton 47-Trump 41
Taken together, the average for the five polls is a dead-even 43-43.
What appears to be happening is that the end of the bitter Republican primary battle has allowed Trump the opportunity to solidify his support among Republicans, and in doing so, his favorability ratings have risen, while Clintons unfavorable ratings have remained relatively constant, or in some polls, her favorability has deteriorated. The Fox News Poll shows 61% with an unfavorable view of Clinton vs. 56% unfavorable for Trump. The Washington Post-ABC poll shows that 60% of voters view Trump unfavorably, while 53% view Clinton unfavorably, which are nonetheless astronomically high for both candidates. In some respects, it is remarkable that, given the personal nature of the attacks directed by Trump at his rivals, and in some cases by Trumps rivals against him, the GOP has come together so quickly, although there are still wounds that will take monthif not yearsto heal. Clinton, on the other hand, is suffering from the continuation of a long primary struggle against an opponent unwilling to concede and who gives every indication of being willing to fight all the way to the convention.
http://fortune.com/2016/05/25/election-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/
There were some early signs several weeks ago that suggested Trump might be more competitive in a general election than some soothsayers were predicting. There was a George Washington University Battleground poll that had shown Clinton with a statistically insignificant three-point lead over Trump, a Quinnipiac poll taken in early May that showed Clinton and Trump running dead even in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and an earlier Rasmussen polllater widely dismissedthat showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat. But for months, most national polls have shown Trump trailing by anywhere from 8 to 12 points among registered voters, a margin confirmed by the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, and which, for a stretch from February to April, had Clinton leading in every head-to-head matchup.
That appears to have changedand changed dramatically. Within the last 10 days, five polls have shown the race essentially a dead heat, with Trump actually leading by statistically insignificant margins in three of these polls.
The Wall Street Journal-NBC News: Clinton 46-Trump 43
The Washington PostABC News: Clinton 44-Trump 46
Fox News: Clinton 42-Trump 45
Rasmussen: Clinton 37-Trump 42
The New York TimesCBS News: Clinton 47-Trump 41
Taken together, the average for the five polls is a dead-even 43-43.
What appears to be happening is that the end of the bitter Republican primary battle has allowed Trump the opportunity to solidify his support among Republicans, and in doing so, his favorability ratings have risen, while Clintons unfavorable ratings have remained relatively constant, or in some polls, her favorability has deteriorated. The Fox News Poll shows 61% with an unfavorable view of Clinton vs. 56% unfavorable for Trump. The Washington Post-ABC poll shows that 60% of voters view Trump unfavorably, while 53% view Clinton unfavorably, which are nonetheless astronomically high for both candidates. In some respects, it is remarkable that, given the personal nature of the attacks directed by Trump at his rivals, and in some cases by Trumps rivals against him, the GOP has come together so quickly, although there are still wounds that will take monthif not yearsto heal. Clinton, on the other hand, is suffering from the continuation of a long primary struggle against an opponent unwilling to concede and who gives every indication of being willing to fight all the way to the convention.
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Fortune: Polls Show Trump Winning in a Clinton Showdown, and They May Be Right (Original Post)
Miles Archer
May 2016
OP
the good news there is that the GOP seems to have abandoned talk of replacing Trump
GreatGazoo
May 2016
#1
Meaning May national polls with horrible internals for Trump for swing states
uponit7771
May 2016
#2
"Clinton fatigue" didn't figure in to the Obama/Romney polling data though. -nt-
NorthCarolina
May 2016
#6
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)1. the good news there is that the GOP seems to have abandoned talk of replacing Trump
Trump is the most beatable of the bunch.
mathewsleep
(857 posts)4. Disagree
In a year where a being in insider is a burden, he's one of their strongest. Especially against a Clinton, the epitome of "insider".
uponit7771
(90,359 posts)2. Meaning May national polls with horrible internals for Trump for swing states
bigtree
(86,005 posts)3. reality check
Mark Murray ?@mmurraypolitics
Past NBC/WSJ polls after GOP candidate becomes presumptive nominee:
March 2008: Obama 44%, McCain 42%
April 2012: Obama 49%, Romney 43%
Past NBC/WSJ polls after GOP candidate becomes presumptive nominee:
March 2008: Obama 44%, McCain 42%
April 2012: Obama 49%, Romney 43%
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)6. "Clinton fatigue" didn't figure in to the Obama/Romney polling data though. -nt-
bigtree
(86,005 posts)7. weak
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)9. Yes, Clinton is a VERY weak candidate.
Miracle of miracles, I actually agree with you for once.
bigtree
(86,005 posts)10. you may or may not agree with this
...blocking you.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)8. Obama never had Hillary's baggage or underwater unfavorables
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)5. Rasmussen and FOX