President Obama up to 81.1% in Nate Silver's forecast

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

Romney/Ayn Ryan at a measly 18.9%.

[gateley]

1. Time to start rehearsing excuses for your benefactors, Mitt.

[amborin]

2. soon the "Nov 6 cast" will converge with the "Now Cast", now at 82.5%

[TroyD]

12. I hadn't even thought of that

I guess that makes sense. . .

Eventually Now & Nov 6 will be the same.

[amborin]

16. Nate has made a point of that

in his articles; and, as you say, it also makes sense intuitively.

He also discussed how, as we near nov 6, the model stops taking fundamentals (econ, etc.) into account as these get
reflected in the polls.

The now cast at one point right after the conventions was about 95%. Now it is 82%. The two have already effectively converged.

Romney still has a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Not high odds, happily, but: GOTV!

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

3. When Mitt calls the president to concede, Obama should answer the phone with three words:

"Please proceed, governor."

[Tennessee Gal]

5. LOL!!!

Yes, please proceed to disappear into oblivion.

[Blue Idaho]

7. Brilliant! nt.

[faithfulcitizen]

8. awesomesauce :P

[LeftofObama]

4. I'm starting to feel a whole lot more confident

about President Obama's re-election! I have to admit I was worried there for a while.

[intaglio]

6. Still - GOTV

Do not give the 1%er an even break

[robertpaulsen]

9. Question about the nowcast

Is Florida light blue yet? State-by state probabilities don't show up on my computer.

[TroyD]

11. Florida is still red

In both the Now-Cast and the Nov 6-Cast from what I can tell.

[TroyD]

10. Was hoping it would be a little higher than that

Was hoping for more like 85%.

[TroyD]

13. I'm hoping Nate Silver will do a SENATE Update later

The new Donnelly polls for Indiana are not in his model yet. As of now he still shows Mourdock winning. I'm curious to see what the new numbers will be after tonight.

Btw, why has Nate removed the list of Senate polls from underneath each Senate seat? I used to like referring to those.

[dsharp88]

15. Me too because it will reflect the new poll in IN with Mourdoch TRAILING. :-) n/t

[dsharp88]

14. But it will only work if you vote. GO VOTE!!!!! n/t