Rasmussen - INDIANA - SENATE (Donnelly +3)

[TroyD]

First it was Howey/Depauw, and now it's Rasmussen. 2nd poll of the day showing Donnelly ahead.

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Rasmussen Reports

Donnelly (D) 45

Mourdock (R) 42

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Friday, November 02, 2012

Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly has a three-point lead over Republican Richard Mourdock in the closing days of Indiana’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Indiana Voters shows Donnelly with 45% support to Mourdock’s 42%. A surprisingly large number of voters either prefer another candidate in the race (6%) or remain undecided (6%).

The Indiana survey of 600 Likely Voters was conducted November 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/indiana/election_2012_indiana_senate

[BlueStreak]

1. A word of caution

The state is probably going to elect Pence (R) Governor and will probably also go for Romney because Obama has not had any presence in Indiana this time.

That means that about 10% of the Republicans must split their ballot in order for Donnelly to win. It is a lot easier to answer "Donnelly" to a pollster than it is to split the ballot.

I think Donnelly will win, but only by a whisker.

[TroyD]

2. I'm wondering if Bill Clinton has time for another visit to Indiana

He's probably pretty filled up with Obama campaign appearances over the final few days, but it might help if he made another appearance.

Obama isn't that popular in Indiana actually, so it may not have helped Donnelly for Obama to campaign with him since Donnelly needs Indiana Independents and Moderate Republicans to win and they are more likely to relate to Clinton than Obama.

[Third Doctor]

3. This means he's up 5.

[TroyD]

4. Nate Silver Updated his Senate Model tonight!

Indiana (Lean Democratic)

Chance of winning

Donnelly - 68%

Mourdock - 32%

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Projected vote share (Donnelly +2.5)

Donnelly - 50.0

Mourdock - 47.5

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/