Nevada Poll: Obama 50-44

[WI_DEM]

Mark Mellman, who hit 2010 on the nose for Harry Reid, says President Obama is up 6 in Nevada, 50-44.

His memo on the poll for the Democratic front group, Americans United for Change, is posted here. Key stat: Obama is winning Washoe, which would kill Romney's chances. He's up 11 in Clark, according to Mellman's poll.

He's also crushing Romney among Hispanics by a 2-to-1 margin int he poll by Mellman, who is Rep. Shelley Berkley's pollster in the U.S. Senate race.

Mellman: "With the president ahead in every Nevada poll since October 9th, he is quite likely to win this key state."

Republicans chafe at the Mellman mystique, but the more 2012 looks like 2010 and not 2008, the more his numbers should be heeded. Mellman knows turnout patterns in this state, and a poll is only as good as its model of the electorate.

http://www.ralstonflash.com/blog/democratic-pollster-says-obama-6-nevada#.UJL5eGewUvo

[Major Hogwash]

1. Nevada's in the bag for Obama.

As is Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and nearly every other so-called "swing state".

It's not even going to be close whereas the Presidential election is concerned.

[cleduc]

2. I've looked at a bunch of polls, early voting

and registration and election history for Nevada.

50% of the vote is in. Obama has a 40,000+ lead, 44%-37.6%.
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500

and the Dems still have the roughly same proportional majority advantage of outstanding voters left (41.9%-35.5%)

Romney has never led a poll in Nevada over the last 15 months.

Romney is toast in Nevada and therefore, he MUST win both Ohio and Florida plus other states to keep any chance alive given that Wisconsin seems to have gone beyond his grasp as well.

[PsychProfessor]

3. Nevada

is really coming through for President Obama. I think it is second only to Ohio in importance. It is a potential clincher. This is awesome news!