GOTV in Florida (FL), 11/02/12 Dems surge to 2.6 pts

[ffr]

With 3,463,527 votes cast in early voting, with 41.0% likely voters reporting.

Democratic lead
76,198 votes

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 1,471,999 or 42.5 percent (Dems to Reps only 51.3%)
Republican -- 1,395,801 or 40.3 percent (Dems to Reps only 48.7%)
Others -- 515,781 or 16.9 percent

GMU.EDU 2012 Election Statistics
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GOTV my fellow Democrats. Swing the congressional balance of power to Obama. Victory 2012

[BlueStreak]

1. A detail to keep in mind

All these early voting numbers are based on party affiliation, not on the actual votes cast. The assumption is that aif a person with affiliation votes early, they must be voting for their party. That is probably true to a high percentage, but it would not be 100%.

I wonder if there is any reason to believe a significant number of Republicans are voting for Obama or a significant number of Democrats are voting for Romney.

Maybe it is wishful thinking, but I really can't see any Democrat voting for Romney, but I can easily imagine many Republicans who just can't vote for Romney because of: a) his continuous lying, b) his position on women, c) his position on Medicare and Social Security, d) just who he is. In other words, if you are Republican, there are solid reasons for not voting for Romney. If you are a Democrat, you may not thing Obama is progressive enough, but there is nothing that would send you to Romney.

[ffr]

2. Here's why the numbers will probably hold true

10/30/12 - Trends among groups, meanwhile, show continued remarkable polarization. 91 percent of Democrats support Obama... Romney,... is at 94 percent among Republicans... - ABC News article