Nate Silver: The Simple Case for Saying Obama is the Favorite

[LongTomH]

From the FiveThirtyEight blog: The Simple Case for Saying Obama is the Favorite:

If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a “tossup.”

What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:

Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

A somewhat-more-complicated version:

Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.

The argument that Mr. Obama isn’t the favorite is the one that requires more finesse. If you take the polls at face value, then the popular vote might be a tossup, but the Electoral College favors Mr. Obama.

So you have to make some case for why the polls shouldn’t be taken at face value.

Oh boy, the Rightwingers are gonna really hate on Nate now!!!!

[BlueDemKev]

1. I read Silver's article.

He presents very valid points in his argument. Of course, we won't know for sure until the votes are actually counted, but given Silver's record of accuracy in the past, I feel he can be trusted.

[Doctor Jack]

2. I hate how he always says that Obama is a slight favorite

He is trying not to offend anyone by saying that Obama is going to win. He makes it sound like Obama's odds are at 55%. At 81%, I wouldn't call him a slight favorite

[Qutzupalotl]

3. He's making a distinction

between favorited to win (which Obama is, heavily) vs. "favorite", meaning popular vote choice. He's likely to win that too, but it will be closer than the electoral vote.