2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Michigan Poll: Obama +7 48-41
A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan was conducted by Grove Insight October 31st to November 1st using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.
Michigan voters see Obama, not Romney, as the Car Guy
Barack Obama is currently ahead of Mitt Romney by seven percentage points (48% to 41%). One key reason for the Presidents big lead is because Michigan voters are much more inclined to believe he will be better for the auto industry By nearly 20 points, voters believe Obama will be better for one of the states most important economic sectors than Romney (53% Obama, 34% Romney). In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads 84% to 9% among those who believe the President will be better for the auto industry.
Connected to this, the President also has considerably better numbers than Romney for working to re-build the middle class economy (50% to 38%), indicating faith in Obamas ability to recover and rebuild an
economy that extends well beyond the automotive sector.
The President also has a double-digit lead in the early vote (49% to 39% among already voted).
There are two other trends of significance. While the President has a big lead with women (50% to 39%) he also has a slight edge among men (46% to 44%). And while Obamas lead among younger voters is a given (51% to 39%), he is also up a bit over Romney among voters over age 50 (46% to 43%).
Another challenge for Romney is that voters are not terribly willing to take his message at face value.
http://usaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Memo-PNA-MI-110112.pdf
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Will they be voting libertarian or flipping a coin on Tuesday?