Benchmark Politics California projection: Hillary 56% Bernie 44%

[DCBob]

Last edited Fri May 20, 2016, 01:20 PM - Edit history (2)

Benchmark Politics
12:13 AM - 18 May 2016
?@benchmarkpol
By popular demand, PRELIMINARY benchmark for California: Clinton 56% - Sanders 44%. #CAPrimary

http://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/732786248931102720/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw



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Benchmark Politics has been fairly accurate this year with their forecasts. A double digit loss in California should end it all but who knows. The Bernie gang seems unwilling to accept defeat gracefully.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

1. Bought and paid for by the Brock Propaganda machine! nt

[DCBob]

2. LOL.. you have no clue.

[ThePhilosopher04]

4. Actually he does have a clue.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

5. It is a well known fact that Benchmark Politics was bought by Correct the Record. nt

[DCBob]

10. It is also well known they have been extremely accurate in their projections.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

11. They had Clinton winning Oregon nt

[KingFlorez]

12. No they didn't

They projected for Sanders. Making up things is not going to help your case any.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

13. Why you always lying?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/11/1525504/-Benchmark-Politics-models-for-Oregon-and-KY-Clinton-leads-Early-model-for-California-Hillary-10

[KingFlorez]

15. On Twitter, they projected that Sanders would win

Their projection was narrower, but nonetheless they projected for Sanders. Go check their Twitter feed.

[LonePirate]

22. Here's that tweet from the 17th:

Benchmark Politics
?@benchmarkpol
Onto Oregon now, everyone. We have Sanders +1. We think he'll win. But we were close in KY, and by all means, its within the MOE.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/732742364423315456

[DCBob]

25. Oregon was confusing especially with that lone poll that had Hillary up by 15 points.

Not surprised with the range of forecasts on that one. I think California is more clear and predictable.

[icecreamfan]

24. Early projection had Clinton winning. Later switched to narrow Sanders win.

Many stopped trusting them after they were bought by Brock. This California prediction will be way off the mark.

[LonePirate]

29. His CA prediction is probably off. He's likely underpredicting Clinton by 5 or more points.

The voter participation rate in CA will be lower than in OR. Plus, the percentage of the non-white population in CA is much higher than in OR. Clinton may be closer to 60% than 55% in CA.

[icecreamfan]

30. It's a western state and non-party-affiliated people can vote. He's over predicting Clinton.

[LonePirate]

32. CA is more like AZ than OR as far as western states go.

Plus CA is solidly Democratic. In 2015, 43% were Dems, 28% were Repubs, unaffiliated (Independent) were 24%. The rest belonged to other parties.

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=526

Anybody expecting a Bernie win in CA is going to be very disappointed on June 8.

[icecreamfan]

33. I doubt that - but we'll see. I hope no 5 hour vote lines like AZ.

I'm not predicting a win for either. I'm predicting Benchmark's margin is off by more than a couple points in favor of Clinton.

[ThePhilosopher04]

3. Yep. Amazing how these websites pop up out of nowhere in favor of Hillary.

[KingFlorez]

7. Reality is real annoyance, isn't it?

The paranoia is ridiculous. SoCal is going to be heavily anti-Sanders, because they aren't enough rural independents there to throw the race to Sanders. California is Clinton Country.

[redstateblues]

9. I'm sure the NV kerfuffle didn't help Bernie in CA

when BSS went after their popular progressive Senator

[Florencenj2point0]

6. good news

she should wrap up the pledged delegates that day between CA and NJ.

[dragonfly301]

8. ?!

Accurate? How'd they do in Oregon or Kentucky?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/11/1525504/-Benchmark-Politics-models-for-Oregon-and-KY-Clinton-leads-Early-model-for-California-Hillary-10

[DCBob]

16. This shows they had Bernie up 51-49

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/05/oregon-democratic-benchmark-county.html

[George II]

36. How did they do in the other 42 states?

[KingFlorez]

14. California is more Democratic than liberal

Anyone who believed that Sanders was going to get 85% here like he did in Vermont was not being realistic.

[reddread]

37. what is Kansas?

thank you.

[Armstead]

17. Will they do better than their previous tweets?

Kentucky early modeling: Clinton 52% - Sanders 48%. Also closed primary. Decent minority pop.

My read on Oregon - it's neck and neck. Polls and turnout good for Clinton. My model - a tie. The ideology - prob Bernie. A true 50-50.

[Armstead]

19. Never heard of him....If that was his prediction it's probably why

[DCBob]

21. Yeah, that was absurd.

That guy should never be quoted as a forecaster.

[KingFlorez]

27. That's who Sanders supporters consider accurate

They post his California prediction here constantly and label it as a poll.

[DCBob]

20. Even if they are off by 10 points in Bernie's favor that still means a narrow loss for Bernie..

which will take alot of the thump out of his argument to the supers.. as if it had any thump to begin with.

[Armstead]

35. If California is a narrow loss, it'll still be a victory for the "fringe candidate"

At this point, my main concern is that he gets enough votes overall to give the Democratic Establishment a Wake Up Call.

He's already done that, but I hope to see it driven home. I am fed up with the arrogance of the Clinton and other Democratic Politifcal Gentrifiers and their cozy relationship with Big Bidness and Wall St.

[underthematrix]

23. There doesn't seem to be any mystery here. Clinton only needs 89 more pledged delegates

Virgin Islands Dem Caucus 12
Puerto Rico Dem Caucus 67
California 546
Montana 27
New Jersey 142
New Mexico 43
North Dakota Democratic Caucus 23
South Dakota 25
District of Columbia 45

Clinton is expected to win at a minimum PR, CA, NJ and DC

[bettyellen]

26. Bernie takes the Dakotas and Montana.....other than that, if he gets a squeaker it would be

a big surprise to everyone. It is done.

[underthematrix]

31. Yes it is done and I think now is the time to be gracious

and allow Bernie supporters to come to that realization in a way that moves us toward getting the people elected (House and Senate, Govships and statehouses) that can get some of the progressive agenda enacted into LAW. We're gonna have a huge mess to clean up once we take back control of our government.

[bettyellen]

34. Sadly it seems like SBS is trying to use his most venomous supporters as some sort of leverage

but it's pretty obvious they don't even respect him at this point. He will be supporting Hillary, and cannot influence them at all. They will be throwing him under the bus as soon as that happens. So about 25% of his supporters will go apeshit. No big deal, they have been having a tantrum on Twitter of months now.

[Gomez163]

28. BUT BUTT BERNIES CROWDS ARE SO YOOOOOUUUUGEEEE!!!!!!!