Ohio still looks like the tipping point to me

[TexasCPA]

My calculations showing 290-248. It was accurate in 2004. I didn't use it in 2008 due to the fact that the race was uncompetitive.

5.0 = Strong Obama. -5.0 = Strong Romney. 0.0 =


Cumm
ST STRENGTH Evs
DC 5.0 / 3
VT 5.0 / 6
HI 5.0 / 10
NY 5.0 / 39
RI 5.0 / 43
MD 5.0 / 53
DE 5.0 / 56
MA 5.0 / 67
IL 5.0 / 87
CA 5.0 / 142
ME 5.0 / 145
WA 4.7 / 157
NJ 4.6 / 171
CT 4.4 / 178
NM 4.2 / 183
MN 3.0 / 193
OR 3.0 / 200
ME2 3.0 / 201
PA 2.7 / 221
MI 2.0 / 237
WI 1.8 / 247
NV 1.4 / 253
IA 1.3 / 259
OH 1.2 / 277
NH 1.0 / 281
CO 0.3 / 290
NE2 0.0 / 248
FL -0.1 / 247
VA -0.3 / 218
NC -1.3 / 205
AZ -1.8 / 190
SC -2.0 / 179
GA -3.0 / 170
KS -3.0 / 154
MT -4.0 / 148
TN -4.0 / 145
LA -4.3 / 134
MO -4.7 / 126
NE -5.0 / 116
IN -5.0 / 112
KY -5.0 / 101
WV -5.0 / 93
SD -5.0 / 88
TX -5.0 / 85
OK -5.0 / 47
ND -5.0 / 40
MS -5.0 / 37
AL -5.0 / 31
AR -5.0 / 22
AK -5.0 / 16
ID -5.0 / 13
WY -5.0 / 9
UT -5.0 / 6

[HereSince1628]

1. How are the "competitiveness scores" calculated?

Your own formulation or are you using some outside source?

[TexasCPA]

3. My only formulas based upon all the polls

It worked very well in 2004.

[HereSince1628]

5. Sounds like you're about as willing to share them as Romney is his years of tax filings.

[JiminyJominy]

2. As Mentioned

in the other thread...

i have been high on us taking OH for a while now. i even have a cousin whose working for the campaign outta Chicago that told me campaign internals show Obama holding in OH (about a week ago).

that said, i also have friends and cousins who live in Warren and Columbus who say they just dont see the support for Obama they see for Romney. yes, i know these are small cities compared to large ones like Cleveland that can carry Ohio for Obama...but they are making it sound like these cities aren't even close right now.

[GeorgeGist]

4. 272 without OH

[courseofhistory]

6. Although we want OH,

Obama can still get slightly over 270 without it.


4 states

i Ohio (18) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 271

sColorado (9) + L Iowa (6) = 275s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + g Nevada (6) = 275

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + g Nevada (6) = 275

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + d New Hampshire (4) = 273

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) = 272

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + L Iowa (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 270

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 270

s Virginia (13) + F Colorado (9) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) = 271

5 states

v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 272

http://apps.npr.org/swing-state-scorecard/