2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumScott Rasmussen: We just can't predict who will win 48-48 in tracker
(Was Romney +2 yesterday and for several days prior to that)
Election 2012 has had few surprises. So it's somewhat surprising that heading into the final weekend of the election season, we are unable to confidently project who is likely to win the White House.
From the beginning of the year to today, the fundamentals suggested the presidential election would be close. The president's job approval, which is a good predictor of his ultimate share of the vote, has stayed in a range of 47% to 50% all year. That, by itself, virtually guarantees a close election. On the Friday before Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the race tied at 48% for Obama and 48% for Romney.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/an_unpredictable_end_to_a_very_predictable_election
mucifer
(23,552 posts)The electrical college!!
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)to cover his backside. A tie from Rasmussen means a win for Obama.
sadbear
(4,340 posts)Why anyone other than fox news and AM radio give him any credibility is beyond me.
outsideworld
(601 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)The more realistic of the bunch are beginning to console themselves with how weak O's mandate will be and vowing to fight on for their freedom against their communist oppressors
outsideworld
(601 posts)Third Doctor
(1,574 posts)It complete defiance of every other polls.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)He seems to be lost in the Likely Voter and Popular Vote model. What an idiot...