CBS NYT Poll- Hilary Clinton 47% Donald Drumpf 41%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/

[Barack_America]

1. Down from +10 just 4 weeks ago.

Bernie more than doubles her margin at +13.

[Dem2]

2. Taunting and tearing down the Democratic nominee

It's fun isn't it?

[Barack_America]

5. Sorry? I was just summarizing the article at the link.

[Dem2]

6. So gleeful

Fun taunting the Democrats who are worried about losing this fall!

[Barack_America]

8. I'm a Democrat whose worried about losing this fall.

That's why I've strongly supported Sanders.

Welcome to the worry club, pity you all have joined us too late.

[Dem2]

11. Except it's the other way around

You are using this to try to scare people into supporting Bernie, which is wrong

[Barack_America]

23. Not at all.

I'm resigned to the fact that, unless the FBI recommends indictment, Hillary will be our nominee.

I'm just realistic about what that means. Sanders supporters have been warning for months that independents won't support Hillary. Well, you're now seeing that we were right.

[anotherproletariat]

19. Clearly some people do not understand the concept of cause and effect.

Or math.

[DCBob]

3. Fabulous!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Imagine how well she will be doing when BS and DT aren't ganging up on her!

Imagine a boxing match where one boxer has two opponents in the ring.

[DCBob]

10. Yes indeed.

Excellent analogy!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Sadly it shows the measure of both men.

[polio2]

14. just like obama?

Except that's factually wrong. Obama did consistently better vs. Mccain in 2008 than Hillary, and Hillary's poll numbers never improved in 2008, they only got slightly worse towards the end.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Nothing I said was factually wrong,

Trump and Sanders are playing a little game, double teaming her, in a desperate attempt to lower her numbers. She has more gumption than the both of em!!!


Why are they double teaming her. Here is a cryptic reference as to why:




Maybe you will get it. Maybe you won't.

[polio2]

26. see mccain

again, when obama was 'double teamed' by mccain and hillary in 2008, he still outperformed hillary in the polls vs mccain.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. McCain never went as negative toward Obama as Trump did against Hillary

And at this point in 08 Clinton wasn't going as hard against Obama,

I wouldn't rule out the possibility they are in cahoots. Trump hardly ever attacks Bernie...


Why???

[polio2]

31. you don't remember 2008?

reverend wright, birther issue, muslim, etc. talking points were used by the right wing constantly against obama. Limbaugh was even calling for republicans to vote for hillary in the open primaries to stop Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I am talking at this point-5/19/08

[polio2]

35. yes

it's the same, obama consistently led mccain in the polls vs. hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. By this time in 08 HRC had tempered her attacks, BS hasn't.

She is being double teamed. I can not rule out they are in cahoots.

[polio2]

42. Hillary was joking about rfk's assassination

that's no laughing matter. She was fighting hard until the end.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. She was heck of a lot closer than BS.

In any case she endorsed PBO after the last primary. Let's see if BS continues his quixotic bid to the Convention. Then my idle musings about him being in cahoots with Donald Trump will become an entrenched conviction.

[Cosmic Kitten]

7. This poll spell disaster for Hillary and down ballot dems

The OP cherry picked one line of data.

Yes, the poll reports;Clinton 47 Trump 41
but it also reports: Sanders 51 Trump 38
Clearly Bernie is kicking Trumps ass
while Hillary and Trump are within the MoE

More ALARMING is the report that...

There is diminished enthusiasm about voting. 40 percent of registered voters nationwide are less enthusiastic than usual about voting this year - higher than at any point during the 2012 election, perhaps reflecting a desire for more candidate choices.

However, Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats and independents, and those who support Trump in the primaries are particularly so -- 56 percent of Trump supporters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year.

Using history as a guide, when turnout
is diminished Republicans WIN.

Hillary's nomination will depress turnout
for the democrats...

Lastly, this is a pathetic poll sample!

The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.

The margin of error for the sample of 371 Democratic primary voters is six percentage points.

Did you catch that?
This poll only includes 371 democratic primary voters

AND...the Margin of Error is a *guestimate*

This poll was conducted by telephone May 13-17, 2016 among a random sample of 1,300 adults nationwide, including 1,109 registered voters.

Out of 1300 adults surveyed,
only 371 were democrats?!?!

Hillary and the down ballot democrats
are looking at defeat if the DNC doesn't
change it's tone and it's direction.

Enjoy this silly poll Camp Weather Vane
there is a tsunami coming and its name
is President Trump

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. NO. TRUMP. FOR YOU.

Enjoy this silly poll Camp Weather Vane
there is a tsunami coming and its name
is President Trump

-cosmickitten

NO. TRUMP. FOR YOU.

[Cosmic Kitten]

16. Mmmm Hmmm :~/

No peace for the middle east!

[DCBob]

15. I suspect you loved the Rasmutton and Faux polls though.

[Cosmic Kitten]

22. Polling is a BUSINESS, it's used as a tool of manipulation.

Polling is about MONEY.

Millions of dollars are spent,
frequently to create an opinion,
not to measure existing opinions.

We are both adults Bob,
lets not pretend polling is anything less
than a form of propagandizing an election.

Elections would go just fine
without all the opinion bending
associated with polls.

[DCBob]

25. That would be true of some pollsters especially on the R side...

As we clearly saw in 2012.

[Godhumor]

46. Oh lordy, you done fumbled your explanations

The MOE is not a guesstimate, "could be" is a standard term for explaining something that may be either higher or lower up to a certain point. Basically, it says that actuals are somewhere within three points of the reported results.

Second a subsample MOE of 6 is not unusual. The poll was conducted across all parties, so it was never intended to just poll Democrats, so some Q's were asked of all people and then specific Q's asked only to people who ID of specific parties. The MOE for the GE questions is +/- 3, which includes the vs Trump results.

[Alex4Martinez]

13. 51-38 Sanders > Trump (much better than 47-41 Clinton over Trump)

Math...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The Vermont independent can tell his grandchildren he beat Trump in a poll.

[Alex4Martinez]

27. Our process and the outcome is a pretty serious matter, to me.

Sanders' reputation of working with Democrats is stellar, his practices and principles more in line with traditional democratic values than the vast majority of current congress members.

It's not going to be funny or cute or smiley face for anyone if we lose the general election because we allowed the party bosses to chose over the people.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. The party bosses are going to ratify the victory of the person who has garnered 3,000, 000...

The party bosses are going to ratify the victory of the person who has garnered 3,000, 000 more votes...


Surely you don't want to disregard the votes of people of color and women who have given our heroine a 3,000,000 vote lead, am I right?

[DCBob]

21. Yeah its a shame many of the Bernie supporters refuse to back the Democratic nominee.

Hillary supporters are more loyal to the party.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I see room for growth in that poll...

Wait to young people learn that one of Trump's SCOTUS nominees compared same sex relationships to bestiality.

We will never get the stubborn crowd though,

[ericson00]

18. so much for the biased Fox/Rasmussen lies

that they masquerade as polls.

[MoonRiver]

20. But, I thought we were DOOMED!

[msongs]

29. the sanders crowd prefers trump/fox polls nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. It seems that way, doesn't it?

[uponit7771]

36. naw naw FAUX news is more credible!!!!! /sarcasm

[TwilightZone]

39. lol. Two minutes.

I shoulda refreshed.

[TwilightZone]

37. "But Fox News is more reliable!!! I choose to believe them instead."

Only in bizarro land.

[Angel Martin]

40. Rasmussen measures likely voters,

Fox measures registered voters and this NYT/CBS poll measures all adults (20% of sample not registered to vote)

So they are all measuring slightly different populations.

Even so Hillary clinton's numbers on honesty and trust are terrible - as bad as Trump.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump:
"Not Honest and Trustworthy" = 64% for both

[Frenchye]

43. Honesty and Trust are not what voters vote for

They vote for one candidate or the other. and Hillary leads Trump by 6%.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

45. Great analysis

I hadn't thought about it in those terms. Of the three, which do you suppose is the best way to poll if you're looking for an accurate prediction? I think the trajectory in all polls is going in the wrong direction.

[Angel Martin]

47. I think it's worthwhile to look at all three

If a lot more people get registered to vote between now and the election, it's worth looking at "all adults" in May.

As it gets closer to the election, all the pollsters will change to "likely voters".

They are all showing the same trend ie. Trump gaining.

I think one big change is that Trump has passed the threshold that people can now imagine him in the Whitehouse. They may hate him and don't want him near the place, but they can imagine it.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

48. Thank you

I think you are exactly right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Rasmussen is an overnight robo-caller who excludes cell phones. Their polls are crap.

It's really hard to take a poll that excludes cell phone users seriously.

[Angel Martin]

56. FiveThirtyEight rates Rasmussen as a "C" pollster

which means that they weight it lower than other pollsters but they still look at it.

CBS/NYT is B, and Fox is C+

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. FOX is FOX and Rasmusen's field work is done by Pulse Opinion Research LLC...

FOX is FOX and Rasmusen's field work is done by Pulse Opinion Research LLC who used to poll for FOX. I will take their findings with a yugggeee grain of salt. Well, that and that Rasmussen and Gallup were the two polls that consistently showed a Romney lead in the waning days of the 2012 campaign.

[Attorney in Texas]

41. or

[Stallion]

49. Tonite Ipsos/Rueters Poll: Clinton 41 (+5) Trump 36

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-24517

[9999dmg]

52. Out of curiosity, why is there so much

volatility in the range of these polls? For example, why are Hillary and Trump both polling much lower in the Ipsos poll than the NYT? Is it the amount of questions asked?

[Stallion]

53. Yeah Sometimes Polls Have Option for "Undecided"- Some Polls Add "Other" and Some Add "Won't Vote"

nm

[The Second Stone]

50. This is not a poll made using approved socialist math

and will be discounted by the bros supporting __________.

[hrmjustin]

51. Notice how some seem disappointed she is ahead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. Because

[mvd]

58. I'm happy she is ahead. Of course I want her over Trump

Doesn't change Bernie doing better though - and remember, there have been A LOT more than 3 million votes cast in this primary. In our nomination process, especially with super delegates, we consider other factors. Even the GE uses electoral votes rather than direct vote. We can work toward making all delegates bound - would be ok with me.