How Obama Kicks Romney's Ass in November

[Rochester]

This is my prediction for Obama-Romney for the moment. The election is still a long way away, but a blue map is a good start.

Let the nit-picking begin!

[Mr.Turnip]

1. If we win Geogria we sure as hell are not losing Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire.

in fact we sure as hell aren't losing NH or Colorado or Nevada, not with the numbers Obama is getting with Hispanics.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Colorado, NV and NH are going Obama. Book it.

[Obamacare]

3. Georgia going blue, yeah right!!

You might want to switch colors with Georgia and NV.

[Mr.Turnip]

4. it actually could if the Economy keeps getting better.

And if Romney or (in some alternate universe where he is capable of winning New York and California) Santorum come out of the primary really damaged (hint they already are.)

Last poll I saw actually had Obama and Romney tied in the state, and we only lost it by around 5 or 6 last time.

[SmellyFeet]

7. Why not? I live here and the Republicans hate Romney.

It's certainly a long shot, but Georgia isn't quite as red as you might think.

[Jamaal510]

9. They may hate Romney, but I'm sure they'll be forced to vote for him

if it came down to him and Obama. Who else do they got?

[mvd]

5. I'd give NV, NH, CO to Obama

GA could be a surprise win. WV will likely be a loss; not sure what happened there. TX will be closer than expected.

[Robbins]

6. Map

Nevada-strong support from Hispanics will help offput momons.
Arizona-PPP has Obama and Romney tied.It's In play
Co-Hispanics will help Obama here.Last polling had Obama ahead of Romney
Georgia-CNN has Obama and Generic Republican tied among registered voters.It's not out of question for Obama
Missouri-PPP has Obama and Romney tied.It could be 2008 all over again and be determined by turnout.In 2008 Mccain was able to
get relgious voters out just enough to barely beat Obama here.Romney has problem with being momon.If there Is any lowturnout by
religous voters and a good turnout by Democrats In St Louis City and County and Kansas City Obama could win.
NH-Last poll had Obama beating Romney by 10
Indiana-I don't think we should dismiss Obama here.Illinois being next door and the antiunion efforts could have an effect here.In
2008 Obama just barely losing the primary and winning Indiana In General election were better than polls said.

[sofa king]

8. It was a longshot a year ago, but...

I'm still sticking with my initial guess, in which I added a 15% shift in President Obama's favor to every competitive and tossup state from 2008.

That winds up being somewhere in the 409-413 range.

I'll not lie and say that I don't have another reason for it, which is that I think the Republican "vig setters" in charge of the voting machines are simply going to throw up their hands and not meddle with the results, lest they get caught interfering in a way-lost election and give up the chance to steal it in 2016.

The second-to-last exit poll will finally agree with the results for the first time in twelve years. That's how you'll know I'm right.