Howey/DePauw Poll has Donnelly up 11% in INDIANA Senate Race!

[TroyD]

Indiana political columnist Brian Howey Tweeted this advance news:

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll has Donnelly up 11% in the INSen. HPI subscribers are reading the fascinating details.

https://twitter.com/hwypol

Maybe Donnelly really does have a chance, afterall. So far the polling has held up for Mourdock and Nate Silver shows him winning, but perhaps the tide is turning!

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ETA: Article has now been posted:

Howey-DePauw Poll: Joe Donnelly has double-digit lead over Richard Mourdock

11/02/2012

INDIANAPOLIS - The latest Howey-DePauw poll released early Friday showed Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Joe Donnelly with a double-digit lead over GOP challenger Richard Mourdock, widening the gap in the race.

RTV6 Political Insider Abdul Hakim Shabazz said Donnelly has 47 points while Mourdock has 36 points, just four days out from the general election.

The poll is the first independent survey to be publically released since Mourdock's controversial statements on rape and abortion.

http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/howey-depauw-poll-joe-donnelly-has-double-digit-lead-over-richard-mourdock

[aaaaaa5a]

1. What a great pickup this would be! nt

[TroyD]

2. Another article with the new Indiana Senate results:

The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 28-30. It was a joint effort of two well-known Indiana pollsters – Republican Christine Matthews, whose client list includes Gov. Mitch Daniels, and Democrat Fred Yang.

“It’s all over but the crying. Joe Donnelly is poised to succeed Republican Sen. Richard Lugar in the U.S. Senate,” Matthews wrote in Friday’s edition of Howey Politics Indiana.

“Indiana has a healthy tradition of ticket-splitting at the state level and even this year when Mitt Romney will handily defeat Barack Obama in the state and Mike Pence will nearly certainly be elected governor, voters are deciding the Senate race independently. Nearly one in six voters support Romney but do not support Mourdock.”

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/nov/02/mourdock-down-double-digits-independent-poll/

[hoosierlib]

3. On the ground in Indiana...

I can assure you that Mourdock is toast...only the Teabaggers support him. I have heard real talk that many Republican "moderates" will vote for Horning (the libertarian) in protest. Needless to say this WILL be a pick-up for us on Tuesday. Keep Indiana blue!

[TroyD]

4. Mourdock's campaign is already challenging the results

1. They say their internal poll shows him ahead of Donnelley by 2 (which isn't exactly a good poll result since internals usually overestimate a candidate's support)

2. They claim that the Howey/Depauw poll today is using 2008 numbers, so they look like they are getting desperate

[TroyD]

12. GOP is Spending $4 Million to Save Mourdock this weekend

According to reports this morning.

Just wanted to give you a heads up. I hope you are prepared with a counter-response.

[TroyD]

13. hoosierlib, how are things looking?

Are you seeing signs of the $4 million GOP onslaught that was reported to be coming this weekend in Indiana?

[TroyD]

5. Btw, Romney is down to a 10-point lead in Indiana

Not going to change anything in the Presidential race, I know, but it's interesting because it's a decrease for Romney of a couple of points from the last Indiana poll where he was up around 12 or 13.

(Romney +10)

10/28 - 10/30

800 Likely Voters

Romney - 51

Obama - 41

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http://www.indystar.com/article/20121102/NEWS0502/121102003/Donnelly-builds-lead-over-Mourdock-Senate-race

[WI_DEM]

6. Great! With Warren in MA & Donnelly in IN that would represent

a net 2 GOP gains, plus King in ME is expected to caucus with the Dems (so net 3)--which would offset some losses if they happen, but NE & ND are looking better than expected for Dems. I think McCaskill will hang on in MO. I think we'll hold CT (and have a more liberal senator than Lieberman). I'm cautiously optimistic here in WI for Tammy Baldwin. Wouldn't it be wild if Dems came out of this election with a net gain in the Senate?

[TroyD]

7. I'm hoping you guys in Wisconsin have a great ground operation in place for Tammy Baldwin

The race has narrowed between her and Thompson, but Nate Silver says she still has the edge.

[mucifer]

8. gazillions of Chicagoans are going to Wisconsin for GOTV!

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

9. nothing like losing a sure thing,a side order of Schadenfreude,will be good with this one n\t

[VirginiaTarheel]

10. Premature, but is Donnelly possible future presidential candidate too?

[TroyD]

11. I'll be curious to see how this effects Nate Silver's next SENATE update

As of now he has the Indiana Senate Seat still Leaning Mourdock, but this poll should change that!