Half the country is going to be very disappointed

[davidn3600]

...the only question is which half?

I don't think there has ever been a presidential election like this where each side is so sincerely sure they will win. Pollsters, pundits, campaigners, talking-heads... of each side is 100% certain their man is going to win. No matter what, people are going to have egg on their face. Go to pro-GOP web forums and they are ready to pop the corks. Go to pro-Dem sites and they are ready to do the same. And neither even thinks it will even be close.

The only election in modern times like this may be election 2000. And that's scary because I know no one wants to revisit that mess. But before that election, each side was very confident.

But the bigger and more important question though is at the end of all this...how does such a divided country move forward? No matter who wins, we may all lose if the nation remains as divided and gridlocked as it is today. The winner will face an uphill battle in attempting to fix some very serious problems because the nation is in such disagreement on how to proceed.

[vadermike]

1. I THINK...

That when (if) we win, knock on wood.. those dudes on the other side are so fucking brainwashed and heads in the sand .. that there may be some shit goin down I am afraid.. they are told all of these things and they believe the shit.. scares the crap outta me..

[JI7]

2. in 2004 on election day there was a period of time where Dems felt sure we won

including the Kerry campaign. but this was based on exit polls and turnout.

but that is different from from right now. in 2000 and 2004 we accepted it was close and that we may lose.

what i find strange is the Republicans thinking they are going to win places like michigan and pennsylvania. at least we are more realistic and not talking about how we are going to win missouri , texas etc.

we even take into account cases where we might lose florida and some other swing states.

[davidn3600]

6. Some of them are on some real good stuff

Minnesota and Michigan are not going red. That's fantasy talk right there.

Wisconsin though I think is a legit concern. There was the whole Scott Walker drama. So the GOP does have a ground game left over from that. Paul Ryan is from there. The GOP had a good election there in 2010 taking over the legislature. Several polls have Romney in striking distance. If the Repubs have a real good turnout, that state could flip. And then if they win CO and either Iowa or NH... Romney would have a path to victory without Ohio. Not saying that's likely but it is a plausible scenario.

As for PA...the only scenario I see that state flipping is maybe if the storm suppresses some of the vote in heavy Democrat areas like Philadelphia and the GOP has huge turnout in the western part of the state. And then maybe you can make that case. But I find that extremely unlikely.

[vadermike]

3. nothin strange

THese guys have been drinkin the far right kool aid for so damn long and they absolutely hate the President with a conviction I have never seen in my life.. more than even Clinton.. I think they are going to nuts Tuesday night and not in a good way ... I hope not tho.. but they are already acting nuts.. I hope some in the GOP can calm them down..

[JI7]

4. it's all about Race, they just can't believe a black man actually won

and they have convinced themselves that he would be a failure because he is black. they convince themselves of this regardless of the facts. anything from getting bin laden, saving the auto industry etc they can't give him credit for.

that one video of idiot romney supporters saying stupid shit like we are not respected in the world . seriously ? they think we were respected with Bush in office and not with Obama ?

i think part of the problem is the more saner republicans are just not saying anything. because the tea baggers are ready go attack them for anything. just look at Christie .

[vadermike]

5. christie

Christie hopefully is the first of many after we finish this election...

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Only one side is basing their reality on wishful thinking and it's not ours.

Those Republicans who believe they're going to win are claiming the polls are all wrong. That's a mighty huge assumption on their part and why it's hard to take them, and their view point, seriously. Yes, I guess the polls all could be wrong and Romney wins. However, let's be honest ... whose position would you rather be in right now - Obama's, leading in enough states to make it to 270, or Romney's, whose sole hope rests on every major poll being wrong?

It's a pretty easy preposition. Republicans will believe they're winning because they have a certain amount of talking heads feeding their delusions. Dick Morris is #1 in this ... suggesting Romney will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and blow Obama out of the water. That type of reasoning is absolutely out of the realm of reality and would be tantamount to Democrats saying they have Indiana and Missouri in the bag, while they may even pick off Georgia. There is just no evidence of such and such occurring and that is wishful thinking.

So, I don't think it's fair to compare us to them because we do have polls on our side. We do have high approval on our side. We do have history on our side. We do have the numbers on our side. This election reminds me of 2006, where Republicans, from Rove to FOX, were saying there was no way Democrats would win back the Senate and House. We had the math on our side ... odds favored the Democrats, but these Republicans, time after time, said it wasn't going to happen ... and they used a twisted amount of numbers and assumptions. That's what the Republicans have this election cycle. Their own unskewed polls and assumptions.

Democrats are confident because the polls are on their side. Republicans are confident because, for some reason, they've been trained to believe the polls are wrong. But it's telling Romney's campaign is so desperate that it's airing lies in Ohio and actively campaigning in Virginia and Florida ... it shows they're desperate and winning campaigns don't act that way. If Republicans could take their blinders off and look at this rationally, they would see this campaign is entirely smoke and mirrors and generally, nay, always, those campaigns are the ones that lose.

[davidn3600]

9. The difference in the polls is the turnout models

Gallup, Rasmussen, and a couple right-wing polls believe that the turnout will be relatively even. In other words an equal number of Ds and Rs voting therefore it will come down to independents which they are polling currently favor Romney. So that's why Romney is ahead in those polls. And they are even more confident because of that Pew study out Thursday that claims Romney is equal with Obama in early voting. I've not had time to look into that study in depth, but I find that conclusion hard to believe.

Most pollsters show a heavier Democratic turnout. Those polls show Obama with a slight lead.

If the turnout is closer to what Gallup thinks, then Romney may very well win. If it is closer to what everyone else thinks, Obama will win. If it's in the middle, we could be looking at a very close election.

That's really what it comes down to quite simply. Which campaign can get their voters to the polls? Someone's turnout model is going to be right and someone's is going to be wrong.

[exboyfil]

8. I think even the Fox mainliners

know Romney is down. My office has become much more subdued in the last week or so. I think they are still looking for a Benghazi miracle.

We are fortunate that the Republicans nominated Romney. I honestly think they could have won this with Gingrich. Do you see any states currently voting for Romney that would not vote for Gingrich? Gingrich wins Ohio over Obama. He also wins NC, VA, and FL. He would only need one additional state after that (CO, NH, IA, WI, NV). He also might have been a factor in MN, MI, or PA.

If the Christian conservative and crazy wing of the party can vote for Romney the Mass. Liberal/Mormon, they would not have thought twice about voting for the serial adulterer Gingrich.

The Republicans can thank the SuperPAC money that firebombed Gingrich in Iowa for losing the White House in 2012.

The real troubling thing is that it was so close against such an empty suit plutocrat with the 47% video. If Romney had even been half way decent as a human, Obama could not have won.

I fear for the future.

[ywcachieve]

12. Gingrich? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

You're funny, ahahahahaha. I know you must be kidding. Gingrich with his evil, mean, nasty, wife abusing, philandering a$$ would never beat any Democrat especially President Obama.

[ncav53]

13. Gingrich would have done much worse than Romney

Sure he'd get the far right vote, but that's about it.

[jberryhill]

10. I feel badly that they didn't even get a candidate who is one of them

What will doubly suck for them is that they didn't even get a chance to vote for someone they genuinely liked.

[ncav53]

11. I don't see how you can look at all the polls and come up with the conclusion that Romney is winning

[deutsey]

14. Well, we're the ones accused of being in the "reality-based community"

as if that's some kind of put-down. I think it can be pretty clearly established that our opponents are delusional.

What concerns me is that whoever controls TV/mass media controls the general perception of reality in America today.

If the Repugs do have some underhanded shit planned for next week ala 2000, they have the upper hand in shaping the public's perception of what happens because they control most of the media that's easily accessible to the public through TV and radio.