Nate Silver: Why does Bernie poll better in the GE? Because Clinton voters will vote for him

[Godhumor]

Not a mean post, just some numbers from a series of his Tweets:

In a matchup against Trump, 55% of Sanders voters support Clinton, 15% Trump. That leaves a big 30% chunk undecided or voting for "other".

Clinton's numbers among Democrats look good/fine. The trick is that many Sanders voters are independents, so easy to miss their importance.

In fact, most of the reason Sanders has better general elex numbers than Clinton is because almost all her voters support him vs. Trump.

Whereas many Sanders voters defect to undecided (and a few to Trump). Of course, that could change if she wraps up nomination.

[anotherproletariat]

1. Yeah, makes sense. nt

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Because Clinton voters are actually Democrats who have more skin in the game

Many of Hillary's voters are minorities and women who can't afford a Trump presidency.

[HerbChestnut]

4. What a disgusting post.

EDIT: I see you edited out the bit about Bernie supporters being privileged...nice...

[Dawgs]

5. You can't be serious with that bullshit.

It's obvious you have no clue. Ugh!

[CorkySt.Clair]

10. Spot on.

[lumberjack_jeff]

22. Why is your signature line an image of David Brock? nt

[TimPlo]

41. He likes the guy who signs his pay checks?

[YouDig]

11. That's a big part, the Sanders people can afford a Trump presidency more.

The other part is that the Sanders people are losing so they are angry and acting on emotion instead of reason, but that changes with time passage.

[auntpurl]

15. +10000

[Ash_F]

16. Sanders' $15 minimum wage disportionately helps women and minorities

Trump's position on trade is what is getting Clinton. That and being anti-establishment in general.

A Black co-worker once told me that he would vote for Trump "as long as he builds that wall"

[AgingAmerican]

18. Most of her online supporters are outsourced from third world countries

[Gomez163]

30. Because Bernie supporters ARE privileged. Those with non-profits can

actually raise more money with Trump in the WH. They'll be able to still organize cool rallies with pot smoking and free sex and Free Mumia.

[PufPuf23]

107. How much money has the non-profit Clinton Foundation raised?

How much money do you suppose these Sander supporters can raise for cool rallies, pot smoking, free sex, and free Mumia?

How much money has been paid or spent as expenses to Chelsea Clinton and other Clinton insiders out of Clinton Foundation donations?

We know Blumenthal was paid $10,000 a month for intelligence regards Libya when POTUS Obama had banned Blumenthal from the State Department.

Your post is not respectable and you know this.

[phleshdef]

35. Easy to call voters "privileged" when you live in California...

You can vote for whoever, Cali will still be blue.

[bobbobbins01]

46. I have skin in the game and I'm voting for Bernie.

Universal healthcare is the only way I'll be able to afford my family's medical bills.

[bkkyosemite]

53. Bull Shit

[JRLeft]

54. Quite a bit of her supporters lean conservative.

[Cali_Democrat]

67. Actually.....40% of Bernie supporters in West Virginia would back Trump in the GE over Bernie

This year, the state's Democrats exerted their independence in another way. Preliminary exit polls -- numbers that will be re-weighted as votes start coming in -- suggest that more Democrats who are voting for Bernie Sanders on Tuesday are likely to support Donald Trump in November than Hillary Clinton.

But MSNBC's Steve Kornacki tweeted a more remarkable data point: Almost 4 in 10 Sanders voters plan to support Trump over Sanders.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/

[JRLeft]

75. That poll was debunked.

[Cali_Democrat]

77. No it wasn't. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

82. Not snarky. How.

West Virginians liked her a lot in 08 when she was running against an African American guy. When she was running against a white guy in 08, not so much...

[asuhornets]

56. Agreed....n/t

[imagine2015]

96. Here's who has more skin in Hillary's game.

?w=529&h=281

[morningfog]

100. 10 million Bernie voters. Put down you brush.

[Number23]

101. NAILED IT. And ohhhh, the howls your bit of truth caused.

So let's play it again:

Because Clinton voters are actually Democrats who have more skin in the game

Fucking right.

[uponit7771]

102. +1

[NWCorona]

3. Nate should visit the Clinton forum lol!

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Clinton voters are adults about losing

As has been demonstrated every time Clinton lost. No epic rants about election fraud or massive temper tantrums about fixed systems or bizarre attempts to delegitimize the results.

The inability to accept that you've lost an election is a hallmark of fascism. In democratic societies, you sometimes lose elections. Adults in democratic societies accept that. The immediate default to conspiracy thinking when you lose an election is fascist, make no mistake about that. I'll just leave that out there.

[Cali_Democrat]

9. Well said. nt

[SheenaR]

13. Fair question to you

In 2008, the Obama campaign accused the Clinton camp of cheating, albeit in one state.

This year, there were extreme irregularities in several states. The same kind the Obama camp accused her of. All of those states were won by Secretary Clinton. And it's not like these were made up irregularities. Many were acknowledged by each state's Board of Canvassers and most were eventually ignored, except my the most vocal Sanders supporters. At what point are the irregularities worthy of mention? At what point can people complain about them, without being labeled sore losers, etc?

Civil question, trying to see what makes one an adult and what doesn't. We may not agree, but I would like to know more.

[Hortensis]

36. There were NO "severe irregularities" that were

caused by the Clinton campaign and absolutely no stolen votes or delegates, even a few, that were caused or colluded in by the Clinton campaign.

All those states have been looked at carefully by both state agencies and investigative journalists, and others, Sheena.

Let's be clear: No one is justified in just believing charges of corruption before they are investigated and reported on. It is just as big a sin to believe lies that can be disproved as it is to tell them.

Plus, it is everyone's duty to know by now that many phony charges have been made over the past several months and that they were always proven false. This is now an appallingly well established pattern of lies that reflects very poorly on the Sanders campaign.

Finally, all these lies should also have been considered with some caution given the context that Hillary has been winning the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, and the unpledged delegate count by very comfortable margins from the beginning, that she has no reason to cheat, and that she has every reason not to.

[aikoaiko]

17. I remember something different in 2008 when the nomination was about to be lost

Clinton supporters had the luxury of having to defend lead which very slowly began eroding, but not fast enough for Bernie to overtake.

[alcibiades_mystery]

31. I supported Obama in 2008

I wouldn't know.

[joshcryer]

38. Clinton's reaction to losing was pure grace.

Especially after a very ugly primary.

[AtomicKitten]

48. "pure grace" ... Um, no.

Hillary refuses to concede the nomination.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/24953561/ns/politics-decision_08/t/clinton-refuses-concede-nomination/

Obama clinches delegates - Clinton refuses to concede
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/6/1497069/-Obama-Clinches-Delegates-Clinton-Refuses-to-Concede

Hillary Clinton won't back down. Or go away.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/06/11/hillary-clinton-wont-back-down-or-go-away/

Obama, Clinton head for contested convention.
http://www.usnews.com/news/campaign-2008/articles/2008/02/08/obama-clinton-head-toward-convention-contested.

Why Clinton Voters says they won't support Obama.
http://www.salon.com/2008/06/23/pumas/

Harold Ickes (Clinton rep) Threatens Convention Fight over Michigan.

[riversedge]

57. It is living in the present that counts.

[joshcryer]

59. Of course she continued until she could not.

Just like Sanders is doing. Good for both of them for trying until the bitter end. She conceded three days after Obama clinched it. Sanders will June 10th or so.

Once it was over Clinton did this:

And their first rally was in Unity, NH:

Pure grace.

[joshcryer]

86. Oops, I was off by one day about Clinton's graceful exit.

Thanks for the correction.

Hopeful you appreciate my correction about your dishonest characterization of Clinton's behavior.

[AtomicKitten]

87. Keith Olbermann once chastised Hillary for running as if she were the Republican against Obama.

She's doing it again, running as if she were the Republican, and none of it is anywhere in the ballpark of graceful.

Here's Keith commenting on her campaign style:

[joshcryer]

88. I expect Sanders to back Clinton similarly as she did Obama.

[timmymoff]

50. Clinton voters

are the right wing of the party. they ignore every fault, they ignore the wars, they ignore the fracking, keystone, the multiple trade deals . Basically they are as principled as their FBI investigated candidate, and that there my friends is the difference between the two groups. One group wants to move America left, the other group wants it to stay exactly the same because everything is perfectly fine with them.

[Blue_Adept]

66. 55% of Sanders voters are the right wing of the party

Because poll after poll show that they'll vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination. So they are the right wing of the party as well.

[timmymoff]

78. They are the ones who havent had quite enough of the dnc's shit.

that's ok their hearts are right , they didn't get it wrong first like a certain candidate got it wrong on Iraq, doma, keystone, tpp, syrai, Libya, ad infitum. wow. She first must get it wrong then evolve and act as if that was her only position. We find it comical.

[JoePhilly]

62. + 1

[CanadaexPat]

79. I guess 2008 was just a dream.

[brush]

7. Not a good reflection on them. Clinton supporters would vote for him but many of them . . .

would rather stand on their individual "principle" (ego) than country and let Trump get in.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. That is also part of the reason HRC has high unfavorables.

Hill people will tell pollsters they have a favorable opinion of BS. BS people won't return the courtesy.

[brush]

32. Yeah, and we Clintonsupporters welcomed him into the party for this non-reciprical showing of a_sses

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. If a pollster polls a HRC supporter and says do you think BS is honest and trustworthy...

If a pollster polls a HRC supporter and asks do you think BS is honest and trustworthy they will say yeah, of course. BS supporters take it as an opportunity to slime her. That's why you see the disparity in exit polls. I suspect if this acrimony continues HRC supporters will stop "playing nice".

[timmymoff]

64. No need to slime her,

she isn't as honest as Bernie... I bet the cloud of the transcripts has something to do with their doubts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. Point

The Clinton supporters tell pollsters they like Bernie too...Bernie supporters don't return the favor.


Hillary has said BS' plans are unrealistic and he has a mixed record on guns. Compare that to his attacks on her.

[timmymoff]

70. she tries to hide to much shit being "cutesy"

her transcripts are one item. When she couldn't make a decision on whether she supported keystone or not and needed to follow Obama's lead was another. The continual blaming of anyone other than themselves for their own record sends a message of distrust. I was tricked into my Iraq war vote. things like that. The biggest difference is he is honest, and she dances around the fringes of honesty through triangulation of every issue. Certainly this isn't new and you have read that before from other posters.

[timmymoff]

52. Lmao

with a welcome wagon like that I would hate to see you mad.

[brush]

58. Did you miss the point? Clinton supporters will vote for Bernie if he gets the nod, but Sanders . .

supporters won't reciprocate.

That sound fair to you?

[timmymoff]

61. sounds like you guys burnt the freakin bridges we warned

you about. Enjoy. Don't worry Hillary and DWs helped it's not all on you guys. Did you miss our earlier points? Looks like quite a few did. Enjoy November. You earned it , own it.

[brush]

71. Guess you don't know, independents come in all stripes

They are not monolithic. Some lean right, some are moderates and some are left-leaning.

Clinton will get most sensible left-leaning and moderate indies who don't want Trump appointing the next 3 SCOTUS justices.

Trump will get the right-leaning ones.

What you read hear on DU about independents not voting for Clinton is not what will happen with the rest of the electorate, no matter how much you wish it was so.

Trump will lose spectacularly once all the dirt come out on him. ABC just today is running a story on his decades of tax evasion. And to come are all the ads with vidoes of him calling Latinos criminals and rapists, the videos of him putting down women and AA.

[timmymoff]

72. Oh I do know

You , the rest of the Hillary supporters, DWS, and HRC herself have built this dilemma, we tried to warn you. Independents would go to Bernie, they won't go to Hillary, as per her negatives as cited upwards of a thousand times here. Looks like you card sharks over played your hand. Next time try shuffleboard. good luck, how soon until the begging of Bernie supporters begins?

[brush]

73. Yeah, yeah. As I said, most sensible left-leaning and moderate indies will vote blue . . .

so that we don't have idiotic Trump as president.

You can keep believing otherwise. Bless your heart.

[timmymoff]

76. you can keep acting like you didn't bring this on yourselves

Have any of you ever made a prediction remotely correct? I've heard he will only win one state , Vermont, gone by Iowa, gone by super Tuesday, gone by march 15th etc.

[BzaDem]

89. People said the same thing in 2012, about Obama.

Of course, when Obama won re-election, they were nowhere to be found. They were certainly not going to concede error, as you likely won't on election day when Hillary wins.

[timmymoff]

90. Obama was primaried in 2012 lol

[BzaDem]

91. You are saying Clinton won't win in the GE, due to the left not voting.

In other words, the same wrong prediction that was repeated endlessly in 2012.

[timmymoff]

93. if she wins, we all lose

same ole same ole

[BzaDem]

103. Speak for yourself. Many here believe that a Trump victory would be a loss.

[timmymoff]

104. we will have a president who will overtly screw us

as opposed to one who will covertly screw us... Yay, can hardly wait

[brush]

94. Here's one for you. Clinton will win the Dem nomination.

[brush]

95. Yeah, yeah, again, like every independent is going to vote for Trump. Get real.

You have to know that's not going to happen.

Clinton will get her share, as will Trump.

Sanders, of course, will be out of the picture by then.

[timmymoff]

97. nope.. theywill stay home as well.

it isn't hard to see how americans stay home is it?

[MoonRiver]

8. IMO, it's primarily because Bernie has not been vetted/attacked by the Repugs.

And that's because they desperately WANT him to be the Dem nominee. Hillary OTOH, has been vetted for 25 years and is still standing tall. I have zero doubt that she will beat idiot Rump in a landslide.

[Hortensis]

39. Yes, the character assassination industry has not

turned to him yet, they're being held back by the big funders waiting to see if they need to invest.

That is a huge factor also.

[Lucinda]

81. Exactly. n/t

[RichVRichV]

106. This keeps getting repeated but there isn't one shred of evidence to prove that claim.

In fact every bit of evidence to this point in time points to the contrary of your claim. You have nothing but innuendo. Here are some facts.


1) Bernie already polls better against Trump than Hillary in state after state, so somebody has to be paying attention. I don't think there's a swing state that Hillary does better than Bernie against Trump.


2) Bernie Has had a year to build his positive brand free of Republican attacks. He won't win the nomination until July at the earliest, which gives Republicans a total of 4 months to counter his 18 months of positive name building. You're sure they're going to tear him down in that time, but there's very little to actually attack him on. He loves being attacked on the socialism charge because it gives him a means to address his platform. That's the last thing the Republicans want.


3) You talk about Hillary already weathering the storm and being battle tested, but her ratings are in the toilet (especially among Independents). Bernie would have to fall like an asteroid just to reach where she's at in negative favorability. She is going into the GE from an awful position, he is going in from a great position.


4) He has been getting attacked on the Democratic side for a year now and his favorability has only grown as he has become more known. Meanwhile Hillary's has plummeted (especially among the all important Independents for the GE).


5) He has run multiple races in Vermont as a Democratic socialist (It's not like this is a new platform for him). And the last race was a very expensive, very negative campaign by his Republican challenger. Bernie won over 70% of the vote. In the presidential primary election against a Democrat he won over 80% of the vote in his home state. Vermont may not mirror the rest of the country in the Democratic primary, but it definitely mirrors the very white Republican side and to a great extent the Independent votes. Large swaths of Republicans and Independents vote for him every election in Vermont, and they know him better than anyone (good and bad).


6) Bernie has absolutely destroyed Hillary on the Independent vote during the primary season, winning it virtually all over the country, even in the deep south where she won her primaries by large margins. He has consistently won as many or more Independents than Donald Trump has won in the Republican primary, proving he's a match for him in that category all over the country and particularly in swing states.


7) Bernie's greatest strength is his honesty and consistency. His peers in the house and senate who are on the other side respect him for being straight forward with them even when they disagree with him. His platform doesn't change just with the wind, or hardly even over time. Honesty and consistency plays very well with everyone. People want to vote for people who are authentic (even if they just seem authentic, which Bernie doesn't have to fake).


8) Once you get past labels, the majority of the population agrees with the majority of Bernie's agenda. Most people believe inequality is a major issue. Most people are angry over the bank bailouts and lack of prosecutions. Most people are sick of the wars and imperialism our country uses. Most people believe health care is too costly. Most people believe higher education is too costly. There might be wide variances across the political spectrum in how people believe they should be fixed, but most everyone agrees these are issues. Bernie not only talks about these issues, he aggressively attacks them. People follow strong leaders, not leaders who wait to see what can be accomplished or how polling shows they should proceed. Triangulation has garnered us nothing but lost congresses and lost states.


9) This is a very anti-establishment year in politics. Independents in particular, and parts of the two parties, are sick of how things are going. It's a major reason Trump has resonated with people in spite of his vile hatred. Hillary, whether you like it or not, is the epitome of establishment. Bernie is the only anti-establishment candidate we have running, or even in our deck. This is no fault of Hillary's, but it will play a part in the general election.


10) Bernie has a legion of very enthusiastic supporters who shoot down the lies against him in a matter of minutes or hours, not days or weeks as used to happen. The old saying is "A Lie Can Travel Halfway Around the World While the Truth Is Putting On Its Shoes". But now there's rapid response teams sitting at the starting line just waiting on the lies to take off. Brock has been trying to tear him down for months and nothing has come close to sticking. Contrary to what you're wanting to imply, the Republican establishment isn't smarter or more ruthless than the Democratic establishment.


Again, you've got innuendo and gut feelings, but there is no evidence to back up your claim.

[emsimon33]

12. So will Independents & many Republicans who WILL NOT vote for Hillary

as will at least 25% of current, long-time Democrats who will also leave the Party. This whole mess created by the DNC, the Hillary camp, and state Democratic Parties has done more damage to the Party than has Trump to the Republicans as they are uniting. There is not uniting here with our Party. Ironically, Hillary smugly does not seem to care. We are little more than chewing gum stuck to the bottom of her shoe.

[aikoaiko]

14. Its true, Clinton-types will vote for anyone with a D without additional thought.

[auntpurl]

19. Is that supposed to be an insult?

I mean, once in my life many years ago I had to vote for a liberal pro-choice Repub instead of a conservative anti-choice Dem, but otherwise, yeah. I vote for who has a D after their name.

And I'd vote for a ham sandwich with a D after its name opposed to Trump. Any rational person would.

[aikoaiko]

20. It is what it is.

[Skwmom]

21. That could change if she wraps up the nomination. Once Trump really goes after her she will get more

Bernie supporters...

Oh yeah, that makes perfect sense

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Because...

[Sparkly]

24. This is like some relationships...

... in which Person A gives in and lets Person B have their way, because Person B would otherwise have a fit and Person A would not.

[merrily]

26. That is ONE of the reasons, yes. Nate Silver has been noticeably biased throughout this primary,

which bias has been reflected in his supposedly objective work.

[cali]

27. What has happened to nate? Why no mention of independents?

[Godhumor]

40. 2nd Tweet/paragraph in the OP n/t

[cali]

44. Oops. That'll learn me.

[MariaThinks]

28. I'm no longer voting Bernie. I can't stand to watch him on TV - i change the station the minute

he appears with his hypocritical face and shrill voice.

[ibegurpard]

29. You've been told this for months

Independents don't like her and won't support her and even some Democrats won't. You wouldn't listen and here we are.

[quickesst]

33. That is one...

.... of the most reasonable and logical statements I have read here. Thank you.

[NurseJackie]

34. So, Hillary voters don't hold grudges? Hillary voters aren't spiteful and petty revenge seekers?

Yeah, I can see that.

[Hortensis]

42. On average, we're little sweethearts, yes. :)

[NurseJackie]

68. I figured as much! :-P

Now that I think about it, I shouldn't have even bothered asking ... It's pretty obvious after all.

[AzDar]

43. Bernie isn't a liar... Bernie isn't corrupt. Bernie isn't for sale, under FBI investigation or

dragging a veritable graveyard full of skeletons behind him. I would imagine it hard for anyone to find a reason to not support him... if they're true Progressives.

[LonePirate]

49. The majority of GE voters are not progressives, though.

[AzDar]

51. We're discussing Hillary Supporters, and why THEY would vote for Bernie.

[frazzled]

55. I think he is

I think he lies every day: about vague policies and their fabricated, provably impossible numbers; about made-up "unfairness"; about his (nonexistent) path to victory, which he uses to scam money out of people; as well as with numerous innuendos about his opponent that have no basis in fact but suit his need to throw some shit out into the ether that his gullible believers can take up as a cudgel. Lies like a rug.

His wife is also a documented liar, as shown on the loan forms she filled out for her delusional scheme to push a multimillion dollar building scam for a rinky-dink 200-student "college" that has now gone belly up because of her indiscretions.That's pretty corrupt in my book.

I don't think I could vote for a liar like that.

[AzDar]

63. 'I think' is the operational phrase, there...Facts say otherwise; aren't subjective. Also, any

Hillary supporter attempting to drag a candidate's spouse into the fray, is either clueless or desperate, or both. Not a subject you should be broaching...

[frazzled]

80. Okay, I KNOW he is

I think I made that pretty clear in the post.

And I think the money scandal is completely appropriate and relevant. It speaks both to the implausibility of ideas that we see promulgated on the campaign trail every day (a building plan of that scale for such a small, budget-tight school is sheer delusion) and also to the massive fudging of numbers (lies) that would have to occur to execute such plans. Not to mention the corruption aspect. And how did she get such a job anyway? Someone who has a degree from a mail-order institution (the same one Michelle Bachmann's husband got accredited from) doesn't usually become a college president. Nepotism? The candidate has a problem.

And just to be clear: the other candidate's spouse has been a constant source of chatter and disdain here on this board—including attributing to the candidate things that her spouse did. Time to play equal and fair here.

[azmom]

45. This is why she is the weaker candidate for the GE.

Bernie attracts independents and republican voters.

[Ferd Berfel]

47. Until the October Surprise

[amborin]

60. LOL! Nate is in the tank for HRC; this is a bogus statement

[Alex4Martinez]

65. I think there's some logic and reason to it.

Naturally it's never as simple as can be wrapped in a headline, but many Clinton supporters, I'm sure, would vote for Sanders.
Sanders has them and a large swath of disaffected independents-- not republicans or conservatives or tea baggers, just "None of the above" independent voters.
These folks have no interest in another Clinton or Bush and they bolster his overall numbers in these matches.
When asked if their candidate, Sanders, isn't the one and their choice becomes Clinton vs Trump, I'm not surprised what they might say.

[Dem2]

74. Why wouldn't Democrats choose the best choice this fall?

Hopefully they will, Trump is a mental case.

[Fumesucker]

83. Some of us have been saying this for going on six months now, it's not some revelation from on high

There are a lot of people who will vote for Sanders in the general who won't vote for Clinton, I suspect most of them will stay home in the event of a Clinton nomination but some likely will vote for Trump.

[Stallion]

84. Exactly-Loyal Democratic Voters v Dis-Loyal Democratic Voters

nm

[davidlynch]

92. Switching to Bernie Would Be Much Less Painful than Vice-Versa n/t

[The Second Stone]

98. That has been their argument all along: they won't vote for the nominee if

it isn't there guy, and by the way, because of that, it affects general election polls. So we should not vote our consciences in the primary because they won't vote for the winner.

[Exilednight]

99. when was the last time Nate Silver was relevant? his prediction of Trump was spot on.

[Hoyt]

105. When Sanders faces reality, Clinton in a walk if we vote.