GOTV in Nevada (NV) Day 13. Dems lead by > 60,000 EV

[ffr]

Last edited Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:18 AM - Edit history (4)

11/02/12 1:53 AM EST - Democratic GOTV surges FORWARD by 5,714* If you're not saying HOLY PH*CK right now, you don't know how huge that number is. You're seeing it here first. No media outlet has these numbers compiled yet.

Despite overall statewide turnout slowing by about 10% from a week earlier, Democrats are still turning out in larger numbers than Republicans. Three days ago it was reported that Republicans may be catching the Democratic GOTV. That day the Dems only gained about 850. But Tuesday's Dem gain was 2,500, Wednesday's gain of ~3,300 and tonight it's ~5,700.** In other words, Democrats at still casting ballots in more aggressive numbers than Republicans.

Unofficial NV SoS Results for 11/01/12 - Official results to come out Friday morning.

Democratic lead - ~ 60,800
Clark County (Las Vegas) - 61,157 (2008 lead by election day was ~80,000. Dems won NV by 12% that year)
Washoe County (Reno) - <357>

Further demoralizing Republicans will be the above results from today's two county EV.
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* I presume that there will be a negative affect from absentee votes, which is why I'm conservatively saying 60,000, when the actual two county numbers clearly show 60,800.
** Clark County raw numbers show 32,628 votes cast, yet their summary page says 32,607. Wednesday's numbers were similar, with a loss of a few votes, but no explanation as to why. NV SoS posts the numbers as I do, using the raw data.

[VirginiaTarheel]

1. awesome news!

[ffr]

2. For more information, see these two threads

grantcart's DU thread

DailyKOS thread

[tevolit]

3. 36,851

My calculator shows a DEM over REP of only 36,851 in Nevada before adding this Thursday's results.

But, even if the lead is a lot less than in 2008, it could be that the REP's are not going to have as many who have not yet voted when election day arrives. That could make them less likely to gain as much as they did in 2008. However, the OTHER category will probably not be as favorable for DEM's in 2012 as it was 4 years ago.

[ffr]

4. 36,851 was from Wednesday's results. Add ~5,500

Clark added 5,714 to their gains Thursday, taking the statewide margin above 42,000 and their countywide margin over 61,000. See Jon Ralston's Report for confirmation.


GOP graph - See Republics can serve a purpose. Thanks guys!