I think there are only 3 states left in play: VA, NC, and FL. (In other words Obama is at 290 EVs)

[morningfog]

Only Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are still in play. And, Virginia is quickly catching up to the other battleground states that have settled into Obama's column.

Obama will go into election day with significant enough leads in NV, CO, IA, MI, WI, NH, PA and OH. Although those states are portrayed as swing states, really only CO and NH were ever at risk. Romney's only hope was in Ohio and that ship has sailed.

The electoral vote count reasonably sits at O-290, R-191 with 57 in play in VA, NC and FL.

With Virginia looking better and better for Obama, the count would move to 303-191, with 44 EVs in play in NC and FL. As Obama's momentum increases, NC could easily follow VA as it did in 2008, which would give us 318-220. I am less optimistic that FL will go for Obama this cycle.

I think 318-220 is the number.

[Doctor Jack]

1. Good analysis

I think you are dead on

[onehandle]

2. NC will be red. Virginia and Florida are 50-50, but I give Florida better odds to go Obama's way. nt

[mdavies013]

5. Not so fast on NC...

Obama campaign has registered 175,000 voters and has a great ground game. I canvassed today and everyone I met was excited and reaching out to friends, relatives and neighbors.

That being said....the only thing that could overcome that is hate...and I have seen a whole lot of that coming out of the closet.

[Jennicut]

21. I see VA as more hopeful.

FL has lots of conservative voting seniors.
VA is polling better then FL too.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

25. Virginia is like Ohio - Blue

It's not a big lead, but Obama is ahead and has been in most polls for the last two-three weeks.

[BelieveMe3]

3. agreed

I predict Romney takes NC after taking the pulse here this week..it's a purple state tipping red..and at home in FLA I feel Obama momentum. I think FLA is still possible for Obama. And Va is moving solidly into Obama's column.

[LisaL]

6. But NC got early voting which is going smoothly so far.

[John2]

20. I disagree with you.

The only people predicting North Carolina is a foregone conclusion for Romney are his campaign and media pundits. The republican Pollsters have too but the last Polls out of North Carolina all in state are the following:
Public Policy Polling 49 to 49
Elon University 45-45
Civitas 47-46 Romney
High Point University 46-45 Romney

USA Survey was done by WRAL. USA Survey is an out of state organization.

The bottomline is the only state where Obama has a larger early vote lead in than North Carolina is Ohio. Over 47 percent has voted. The Polls and media assumes Republicans will win election day by 2-1 in order for Romney to erase that lead even though the democrats still have a significant voter registration over the Repubs. If this is the case, an aweful lot of Democrats will either stay home or vote for Romney, and almost half of them are Black. In order for Romney to win North Carolina now, he will need a lot if crossover votes from Democrats and nonaffiliated voters.

North Carolina is on the East coast and suppose to be one of the first states called. If it is not called, then you will know Romney is in trouble for the rest of the night. He loses North Carolina, then he is in deep trouble. We'll see if North carolina might be the closest swing state of them all when all is said an done. If it is, somebody in the media will look bad.

[K8-EEE]

28. Why is some freeper type screeching to me on FB that Romney is killing in early volting in NC & VA

According to TownHall and all these other RW propaganda links, I assume it is bullshit b/c of the sources....

[CCJORDAN]

4. Help for Florida

Maybe this will help the Florida voters make up their minds and swing towards Obama, check it out!

&feature=youtu.be

[jcgoldie]

7. I think you are pretty close but...

I am trusting Virginia to go blue more than Colorado at the moment.

[BlueStreak]

8. I think you have to put CO on that list too.

But if Romney wins all four of those, that still leaves him at 257.

And I bet he won't win more than 2 of those 4.

[Major Hogwash]

9. No states are "left in play" at this stage of the game.

The only difference now is working on making sure that President Obama's coattails are long enough to drag more Democrats in to the House and the Senate.

[morningfog]

10. I agree that what matters most now is the down tickets.

I disagree that outcomes of each state in the Presidential race is locked.

[LisaL]

13. Well, they are.

When polls are close, it's all about GOTV.

[Major Hogwash]

16. Well, LisaL, Nate Silver says that President Obama has an 81% chance . .

. . of being re-elected.
So, as far as the Presidential election is concerned, it is over, all but for the counting of the votes.
According to Nate Silver, who said his analysis of polls have shown the polls to have been consistently for President Obama ever since July.

So, actually it is the elections for members of Congress that really matter now.
Really, really matter.
Because they will decide whether we take back control of the House by 2 dozen members, or 50 members.

I don't like Nate Silver, myself, but that's what he has been saying.
However, I may still get Valentines from him, unlike grantcart who will only get cards on Father's Day that say "My Dad is a Poopyhead".

[LisaL]

17. Well maybe you think Nate Silver is god.

I don't.

[Major Hogwash]

24. I just said that I don't like Nate Silver.

So, your reading comprehension levels are somewhat dubious.

[KaryninMiami]

11. Ok tell me where your confidence comes from

I'm hoping of course, that you will be correct- or at least close t correct but I want a hit of your confidence. Because I'm still very worried- those machines are still as they were before- worse now that Romney's son is directly invested in one company and the others are where they were before the Obama landslide. Talk me off the ledge and into your light please!

[Comrade_McKenzie]

12. I think the only states we'll lose are NC and FL...

If we happen to win them, that's just icing on the delicious cake.

[locks]

14. Colorado

Went to a great rally tonight at CU Boulder. Large crowd even though we weren't sure that he was coming because of the storm. Obama did an outstanding job as usual and will be back in Aurora CO Sunday. We feel fortunate that he's put so much effort into rallying the state, but it's about as close as it can get and not in the bag. You can bet we'll be working right up to Tues.

[Logical]

19. Is pot legalization going to pass?

[erik satie]

15. I think the only state Obama will lose compared to 2008 is

Indiana. Yes, I am that confident and I see absolutely no reason why NC and Florida shouldn't fall in Obama's column.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

26. Indiana was a fluke in 2008

Yes, Obama put in the work, but 8 years imcompetent arrogance (W) helped him immensely.

[Logical]

18. Ohio, PA and Michigan are not locks!

[catbyte]

22. Obama is hitting back hard on west Michigan TV to counter the vile, lie-packed

PAC ads by KKKarl & the Kochsuckers. Glad to see he's not letting it slide, but I have been forced to begin DVRing local programming. It appears that Obama is matching them ad for ad.

[grantcart]

23. Colorado is also in play. I agree on 318.

[floppyfeet]

27. I thought all along

Obama would end up over 305.

[tblue]

29. And Citizens United can kiss our collective a$$

I would love it if they spent all those millions snd got nothing. Just like Carly and Meg in CA, you can't buy an election.