Tomorrows Unemployment Numbers May End Romney For Good

[JiminyJominy]

Gallup tonight announced 7.0% unemployment.

Why does this matter? Because the Department of Labor Statistics numbers are usually very close to Gallups numbers anywhere from .1-.3% behind them. Here are the recent months comparison:

Oct 12 Gallup: 7% DoLS: ?
Sep 12 Gallup: 7.9% DoLS: 7.8%
Aug 12 Gallup: 8.1% DoLS: 8.1%
July 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.3%
June 12 Gallup: 7.8% DoLS: 8.2%
May 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.2%

So in essence, anything over 7.5% tomorrow would be a major annomoly and outta character for the two surveys comparison.

If it drops to 7.5% or less I just don't see how Romney can come back from that.

[elleng]

1. IF the cold number means anything to voters.

[still_one]

2. Most analysts are saying last month was an aberration

[JiminyJominy]

3. Aberretion...

as in expect unemployment to go up tomorrow? or expect them to come down closer to Gallups numbers?

[davidpdx]

4. I'm hoping for 7.5% or lower

While it may not be the 7.2% that people are saying he needs, it will be damn close enough.

[imanamerican63]

5. They cook the numbers!!!!!

But burned Romney in the same pan!!!!!!

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. 7.5% or lower is a massive drop

I don't see it.

Even or slightly down would be great.

[JiminyJominy]

7. Ya

while it would be odd to see the number so outta line with Gallups, i can't see it getting to 7.5 either.

like i posted earlier the chances are:

40%: same (7.8)
25% 7.7
20% 7.9
10% 7.6
5% 7.5

[aaaaaa5a]

8. When Reagan ran for re-election in 1984, the unemployment rate was 7.4%

For a good part of Reagan's first term, the unemployment rate was at 10% or higher. And Reagan didn't inherit anything remotely close to the economic mess Obama did.

Obama inherited an economic crisis almost equal to the great depression. And on election day he will likely have an unemployment rate close to or equal to what Reagan had in 1984.

Oh... I almost forgot, Obama also had 2 ridiculous wars to end that Reagan didn't have to worry about.

History is going to be very kind to Obama. He is going do go down as a great President.

[Doctor Jack]

9. I'm a bit nervous

Just because we never know what it will be. I think anything about 110,000 and it is a wash. Everything above 150,000 and Romney is totally fucked. As long as it isn't below 100,000 then Romney will get nothing out of this. And I don't think anyone expects that.

[Tutonic]

10. Keep in mind that the numbers going forward have to

reflect the late submittal of the September California numbers. If California had submitted their numbers on time, the rate would have been 7.9 or 8.0 percent. When the California numbers get "smoothed" in over three or four months the rate very well could be 7.9 or 8.0 percent for October--a slight uptick. If Rachel, Ed, Lawrence and the other "readers" on MSNBC did their own research they would know this.

[DrToast]

11. I predict that good or bad they'll have little impact

[FreeState]

12. It could be more employed by average because of the season

This time of year business hire temporary help - so that may help the numbers some.

That being said - last month, without looking, I was offered 4 jobs. Two for 10k more than I make, one for 20k more and one for double what I was making. I know I was incredibly lucky but I imagine Im not the only one.

[Faith9326]

13. You better believe

If the report is even a little negative, the right wingers will drive that story until election day.


If it's positive, there will be full out panic on the right.