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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPredictions from Benchmark Politics For Upcoming Primaries
NJ
HRC 64 SBS 36
NM
HRC 57 SBS 43
CA
HRC 56 SBS 44
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol
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Predictions from Benchmark Politics For Upcoming Primaries (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
OP
You're probably right, but it should they should finish pretty close so no big delegate advantage
eastwestdem
May 2016
#2
To correct myself, I just checked and Hillary already has 53 super delegates in CA
eastwestdem
May 2016
#3
Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)1. First two, yes. California, no.
California will be much closer.
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)2. You're probably right, but it should they should finish pretty close so no big delegate advantage
for either.
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)3. To correct myself, I just checked and Hillary already has 53 super delegates in CA
So even if the vote is close, or she loses by less than 10 points, she should still have more delegates.
leftinportland
(247 posts)4. Benchmark Politics just merged with Brock's Blue Nation Review...
Wow Hillary has her own media outlet AND now her own polling outfit...
Tarc
(10,476 posts)5. If NJ and NM hold at that, and we give Hillary PR and DC at 60-40
and give Bernie ND, SD, and Montana at 65-35, he'd have to carry California at 83% to edge Hillary 2,026-2,025.
#math
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)6. I will be glad when this is over.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)8. June 14th ....
Can't come soon enough for me
mcar
(42,334 posts)7. I'm surprised by the CA numbers
Pleasantly so.