Newsmax/Zogby - Tracking Poll - Obama 47% / Romney 47%
NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
It's Tied Nationwide: Obama 47%-Romney 47%
Minor Candidates Hurt Romney
November 01, 2012
The new three-day rolling average of 1,030 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Monday (October 29) through Wednesday (October 31), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "Romney has gone from leading to a tie. Perhaps it is a combination of an improvement in Obama's job approval during the storm crisis and the great sorting out that normally happens late in a campaign. Obama continues to poll strong among his base -- Hispanics (64%-33%), African Americans (88%-8%), young voters (59%-34%), union households (59%-34%), and the Creative Class (50%-46%). Meanwhile Romney is gaining with evangelicals (70%-27%) and NASCAR fans (52%-41%). Neither candidate is where he needs to be with key groups: Obama still needs more support among younger voters (especially women) and Romney needs more white voters support (he leads 56%-38%).
With minor party candidates in the race, Obama leads 47% to Romney's 46%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 2%, Green Jill Stein and Constitution Virgil Goode at 1% each. Among early voters, the race is very close with Obama polling 49% to Romney's 47%. Romney has a smaller lead now among "Definite" voters (49%-47%), and Obama leads among those "Very Likely" to vote (51%-38%). Key question here: how likely is "very likely". If that group votes, Obama wins; if they don't, he doesn't."
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 36.6% Democrats, 34.6% Republicans and 28.8% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+.
http://www.jzanalytics.com/
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