538 Update: Obama Is Taking off Like a Rocket

[Doctor Jack]

And Romney is taking off like a North Korean rocket

Electoral Vote:

Obama 303.2

Romney: 234.8

Odds of Winning:

Obama: 80.8%

Romney: 19.2%

Popular Vote: +2.1

Obama 50.5%

Romney: 48.4%


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[ShadowLiberal]

1. Wow, I never imagined we'd see his numbers go back up that high a month ago

Great to see more good news from 538.

Romney's only hope right now is basically that the polls are all wildly off, and polling averages (which 538 is heavily based off of) have only called 5 states wrong in presidential elections since 2000

[aaaaaa5a]

10. The only way Romney wins is if all the data and historic analysis we have is wrong. nt

[MADem]

43. And if Dems get complacent and don't show up to vote. It ain't over till it's over.

We need to fight like we're twenty points behind.

[Jack Sprat]

2. Trending up near the finish line.

That's good news, Doc. Never hesitate to post news like this.

[Doctor Jack]

7. I'm going to go put some champagne on ice

Excuse me for a moment

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. I just don't believe that Nate Silver would put his ENTIRE reputation on the line. I put trust in

what he is predicting!

[zwyziec]

4. Nevada

Nate's overview of Nevada, as a state with a lot of Mormons, devastated economy, housing market crash, a state where Romney and Ryan should be twenty points up. Yet President Obama is well ahead. Says a lot about the Romney/Ryan ticket!

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Its says a lot as to how well the GOP has driven off all minorities. Not just African Americans. nt

[ProudProgressiveNow]

32. +1000 nt

[aaaaaa5a]

5. The "Now Cast" is equal to where it was on September 9th!

Obama is taking back nearly everything that was lost during that first debate.

[Politicub]

6. Woot woot!

We can't rest. Just a few days to go!!! Plenty of time to make calls to the swing states to GOTV. I so want to see nc turn blue again! It's a long shot, but you have to think big sometimes.

[oswaldactedalone]

13. Darn right!

I'm taking Monday and Tuesday off work to canvass and GOTV. Got Sunday afternoon penciled in as well. We've got to win NC!!!!

[Politicub]

20. You rock. It's folks like you who make all the difference.

[AAO]

38. Electoral-Vote.com has Romeny leading 48-47. Anything is possible!

[zwyziec]

9. The State that Romney did so very much for!

Today's MA poll shows President Obama up 32 POINTS!!!

That poll shows what the people of MA think about Governor Romney and what he's done for the state.

Romney's toast!

http://www.latinospost.com/articles/6227/20121030/latest-massachusetts-presidential-election-poll-2012-obama.htm

[demosincebirth]

19. MA. is aways in the bag...like california, R.I., etc.

[BlueDemKev]

45. Great, now let's elect Elizabeth Warren to the Senate as well!!

And fix that horrid mistake that was made on Jan. 19, 2010.

[madaboutharry]

11. He has been called "a closer."

[NCLefty]

14. Sadly, he won't close his mouth until next Wednesday.

[Doctor Jack]

15. A quick look at the states

Ohio: Obama 80.3%

Virginia: Obama 65.9%

Florida: Obama 44.8%

Wisconsin: Obama 91.2%

Colorado: Obama 64.5%

Iowa: Obama 78.6%

New Hampshire: Obama 77.5%

[budkin]

16. Fuck. Yes. It feels like light years since October 3

Thank God there was so much time left.

[demosincebirth]

17. I sure hope he's right.

[Doctor Jack]

18. Romentum!!!

[DCBob]

21. That 80.8 looks great!

cheers!

[Doctor Jack]

25. I bet it will be over 90% by the beginning of next week

[lovemydog]

29. I bet it will be 100% in a week.

Welcome here & have fun!

[AverageJoe90]

49. Welcome to DU, Jack.

We're gonna have a hell of a party come Nov. 7th.

[aaaaaa5a]

22. On Oct. 4th the President was at 87.1. Tonight he is at 80.8

This means he is only 6.3 points off of his all time high in the 538 Presidential forecast model!



He is peaking at exactly the right time.


The first debate edge has been erased.

[Doctor Jack]

24. You beat me to it!

Damn you!

[aletier_v]

58. The first debate edge has been erased.

Yes, it took a lot of hard work by Romney
but he finally managed to erase it.

[Doctor Jack]

23. Has anyone noticed?

Obama is only 6 points off his all time high in the odds of winning? He maxed out at 87% on the day after the first debate. He is within striking distance of that number again.

[geckosfeet]

26. More like an Atlas rocket.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

27. For whatever it's worth...

The consensus among online betting sites in the UK is 4:1 Obama.

[CBHagman]

50. That I hadn't heard!

My head is fairly spinning from all the figures being flung around here, but it really all does come down to electoral votes in the end.

[barnabas63]

28. He's a Rocket Man!

[oldhippydude]

30. haven't seen that since before the first debate....

maybe we can sweep some congress critters in......

[Doctor Jack]

31. Like Walsh, Bachman, and West

The worst of the worst right there

[bluemarkers]

33. Ryan too

don't forget Ryan!

[WinstonSmith4740]

37. Or Eric Cantor

He may be vulnerable, too.

[sheshe2]

42. Make it SO!

I am from MA. but I so want that guy to go down in flames!

[url=http://postimage.org/image/ydxz5eei5/][img][/img][/url]
Widdle Eric....Palin impersonator!

[ProudProgressiveNow]

34. Coattails baby...

the joy would be overwhelming....

[Sophiegirl]

35. Get a grip folks!!!

It ain't over yet. GOTV!!!!!

[grantcart]

36. and yet even though PPP shows NC a dead tie Silver has a 80% lock for Romney

[nc4bo]

39. What is Nate seeing that we/us/NCDems are not?

Dang.

[grantcart]

40. Gravis Marketing

He has it up 8 points


That is why I went after Gravis.


If NC is lost to Romney, Romney has no chance.


If Romney has no chance he wouldn't have gotten a big bump in contributions a couple of weeks ago.


If NC was a toss up or a Democratic win the election is over Romney has no path to 270.


We have something like 700,000 more Democrats in NC than Republicans its just about GOTV, no one can say we don't have a chance in NC.


NC is the lid on the Romney/Ryan coffin.

[nc4bo]

44. Ahh Gravis...

BS pollster extraordinaire weighing things down.

Makes sense this thing called logic.

Thanks!

[grantcart]

46. Now you see why I went to war on his ass.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251194638

[mnhtnbb]

51. Actually, as of today we have 811,983 more registered Dems than Repubs

http://www.ncsbe.gov/

[cthulu2016]

52. Take Gravis out and Romney would still lead.

The reason 538 has NC so strong for Romney is that Obama hasn't led in a poll there for a month, and that 538 level of certainly is odds of victory by any margin, not margin of victory.

Without Gravis Romney's lead would be smaller. That's all.

We would have to throw out all the pollsters we don't like. I genuinely don't like Rasmussen or Survey USA, and if we throw out those two plus Gravis then we are left with PPP saying it's a tie.

But that is the same as saying, "I think PPP is right and all other polls are wrong." And that is a perfectly reasonable opinion to hold, but we can't sensibly denigrate a poll aggregator for failing to throw out every poll except the one we like.

[FreeState]

55. This n/t

[grantcart]

59. That's just not true. Take out Gravis (and Ras who Nate only gives 2 bars to)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

And the last 8 polls show 3 with Obama ahead (+3,+3,+1), 2 ties and 2 polls that show Romney ahead by 1 point and Survey USA (+5).


For some reason Nate gives the pro Obama polls only 1 or 2 bars and gives Gravis 4 bars.

There is no convincing polling data that gives NC a lock for Romney. An 80% lock for winning is just without any emperical evidence.

[Drunken Irishman]

60. Look, I agree. I want to win NC as much as anyone. But it's probably not happening.

Obama just might pull it off, who knows, but I don't suspect he will. It'll be narrow, of course, but there is a reason Obama isn't focusing on the state in the final days of the campaign.

[Duval]

41. Don't you just love it? n/t

[Manifestor_of_Light]

47. My vote won't count, due to the Electoral College, but I'm voting anyway.

Over 3.5 million of us Texans voted for Obama in 2008, but it didn't make our state go Democratic.

[tevolit]

53. Mandate

The more votes for Obama, the better. So, ya, it counts.

[JB126]

54. It helps the popular vote

If he wins the electoral vote, but not the popular vote, the repubs will claim he's not legitimate. So every vote counts, even in the red states!

[wisteria]

48. Comit to vote and get your friends out to vote too!

We can do this, but we have to all do our part.

[Yul A]

56. Ain't math Great?

Republicans don't believe in it, of course. They perfer Magic, like a Big Invisible Man in the Sky.

[Coyotl]

57. Actually, it's a small incremental change, from 300.4 to 303.2

***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060

Electoral votes +9.1 since Oct. 25, popular vote +0.3.

When Florida finally goes into Nate's tally, that will be a nice jump!

[dsharp88]

61. VA >66% Obama likelihood!!!

And CO >64%!
FL still for Romney, but down to just 55.1%. Almost a complete tossup there.
NV and OH >80% and IA and NH almost to 80% as well!

[demokatgurrl]

62. looks good but somehow

I can't bear to get my hopes up. So little faith in my fellow voters. Fucking sad, I know.

[Walk away]

64. me too sometimes..nt

[sellitman]

63. You are mad

Every right wingnut I know is thoroughly convinced it will be a RobMe landslide of epic proportions.

Seriously.

They are going to be so much fun to confront when they learn the truth. I'm so looking forward to it.