Bad night for Bernie, I'm afraid.

[auntpurl]

Oregon should have been a blowout. Tailor made for him. White and/or super liberal.

And he should have won KY. Hillary's electoral maps from 16 are extremely similar to Obama 08. She is winning with the Obama coalition, as described here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1990307. It has nothing to do with closed or open primaries (both have won both). It has to do with urban diverse versus rural white. And it has been obvious since the South, so I don't know why people don't get this? Anyway, judging by how this whole primary has gone so far, Bernie should have won KY by a decent margin.

His support is waning, the money is drying up, and if ANY state were going to give him the blowout numbers he'd need to even look like a contender in this race, it should have been Oregon. California is far too diverse to give the kind of numbers Bernie supporters on here keep touting. Oregon should have been like Washington. But people are seeing that his race is run, and people like to vote for the person who's still viable.

Sorry, Bernie supporters, but this is not a good week for the Sanders campaign.

[merrily]

1. Hillary ties and it's a big victory. Bernie wins by a healthy margin and it's a loss. o.k. nt

[auntpurl]

2. Well, yes. That's the reality.

You have to look at the whole picture.

[merrily]

3. Well, no. Here is a very abbreviated version of the big picture--

the real big picture, not whichever micro bit someone wants to slice and dice and spin.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1990383

And now she's down to just about tying someone media has been declaring dead in water for a year. This is not a time for Democrats to gloat over a non-victory by a weak candidate.

[auntpurl]

4. I never said Bernie hasn't made a good showing overall.

But this late in the race, with the reality as it is, this was not a good night for Bernie. He needed something to re-inject any kind of heart into his campaign, and he didn't get it. Both of those states should have gone differently if Bernie had any momentum behind him.

Edited for clarity.

[merrily]

7. Did you even read what I linked you to, let alone give it a thought? THE GENERAL ELECTION.

A weak candidate going into the general election.

The reality is, despite every advantage Hillary has had, Trump is already within 3 points of Hillary nationally, according to the yesterday's Today Show--and he hasn't even gotten started. Wake up.

[auntpurl]

8. Yes, of course I read it.

First of all, GE polls this early are meaningless.

Second of all, you cannot win an election in the United States with white dudes only. There aren't enough of them. The Romney problem. And Mittens was a heavenly angel candidate compared to Trump.

Lastly, Hillary has the distinct advantage of having Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Bill Clinton, and PRESIDENT OBAMA waiting in the wings to stump for her. Obama is an extremely popular outgoing president and he will work his ass off to get her into the WH. Trump will have a hard time finding a RUNNING MATE, much less a bunch of respected Republicans to line up behind him.

Trump cannot win. We shouldn't be complacent, but the doomsaying is ridiculous.

[merrily]

9. No, the GE polls at this stage are not meaningless. Maybe that was true 4 months ago It's false now.

I am not saying they are in stone, but they are not meaningless either. And, not matter what, they are the only thing to go by before the convention anyway.

Hillary has had more endorsements in the primary than any candidate because almost the entire party united against Bernie. Whether that's fair or not, it was the case. She is still squeaking by. She is a weak, flawed candidate and just wait until Trump starts in on her--and Bill.

[auntpurl]

11. How do you figure she is weak and squeaking by?

She is ahead by further than Obama EVER was, she's leading in popular vote AND delegates (which Obama was not) and she's got, as you say, the supers and the Democratic congress behind her. She is in one of the strongest positions we've seen in recent history going into the convention and the GE. Is it just that you don't like her so you see her as weak and flawed?

[merrily]

21. Don't make up stuff about who I like. I'm not 12 and she's not running for prom queen.

None of this is about who I like, ffs. I don't understand the mentality of Hillary supporter who accuse me of disliking even hating someone I've never met.

That aside, I figure she's weak for the reasons in the post to which I linked you and more. With an 8 year head start and every Democrat on her side, every media outlet declaring her inevitable since 2012, etc., she hasn't been able to nail the nom yet. Given her advantages, that's weak. With all his flaws, Trump nailed it down before she did.

As far as Obama, first, he had racists against him--which her primary campaign was happy to try to exacerbate, might add. Second, in 2008, he was nowhere near as well known as she. Third, he had started 30 points behind her. So, that she lost to Obama despite all her 2008 advantages helps my position that she is a weak candidate, rather than helping your case. Started 30 points and $$$ ahead in 2008 and lost. Started 65 points and EVERYTHING ahead in 2016 and hasn't nailed the nom as of mid-May. That's weak. And she will be up against Trump who drew record numbers of Republicans to the polls and was able to nail his nom before now. If you don't see a problem for the general, we'll just agree to disagree. If she loses, Hillary supporters will pretend it's because liberals stayed home anyway, so there's much point in trying to warn.

[auntpurl]

29. We will agree to disagree.

[Hortensis]

107. On what? She deflected from Bernie's disappointing

showing in Oregon, a state he once was expected to take by a really riotous margin. I agree that his bare victory has to reflect a loss of support. The question is for what reasons.

I am really wondering if this reflects new doubts among his large bloc of mainstream liberals about his real intentions and disapproval of threats to the party's chances in the GE.

It seems highly unlikely that large numbers would already have heard that the Nevada convention disruption was planned and orchestrated by The Sanders Campaign (the media are not reporting the NSDP's letter) or that they would have come to understand that Sanders' loud and phony claims of fraud were themselves an attempt at fraudulent manipulation.

So I worried that The Sanders Campaign's plot might have energized angry support in OR and KY. If that happened at all, though, it would have to have been set against even larger losses of support than we suspect.

[puffy socks]

84. Oh

Now polls mean something.
But they didn't mean anything in Michigan which pointed to "momentum" nor in Oregon.

Polls are always meaningless when it's to Bernie's benefit and they're always super meaningful when it's to Bernie's benefit. give me a break

[merrily]

92. OY. Get real. And a clue. First, tell me where I said Michigan or Oregon polls were meaningless.

Or are you another Hillary supporter who expects every Bernie supporter to be accountable for everything any and all other Bernie supporters have posted in the past two years?


Second, not only are you accusing me of something I never posted about at all, but you don't seem to know the difference between one kind of poll and another. Trump v. Clinton or Trump v. Sanders is a different kind of poll entirely from a state dem v. dem poll.

And yes, the closer one gets to the end of a primary, the more head to head polls cannot be dismissed as easily as they could 4 months earlier. Amazing you would even imagine otherwise.

[puffy socks]

96. I never said YOU said it

It's been posted ad nauseaum on this site and others by all kinds of Bernie supporters, but now that it's not convenient for your argument it's time for denial I understand.

Blah blah blah hold blah blah blah Romney blah blah winning in a landslide
Yeah polls are great!
Lol!

Bernie LOST!

[merrily]

97. Well, now you're just getting incoherent. Maybe a nap?

[puffy socks]

100. Yes it is hard to keep up with the Berni campus total twisted logic I realize that that's not my pro

lem. That's fuzzy logic.
That's not my problem that's your twisting logic around so that you can , in your dreams, make Bernie the winner!

Berni lost Berni lost berni lost Berni lost Berni lost Berni lost!

[joshcryer]

10. Indeed, and if the will of minority voters is overturned...

...by superdelegates, as is Sanders' only hope to win the nomination, then they might not turn out for him in protest. Sanders hope to win relied heavily on the youth vote, and it simply hasn't panned out, even with record numbers such as in NY.

[auntpurl]

12. Personally...

I've never understood how a campaign could call itself a progressive revolution when POC have rejected it so thoroughly. But that's just me.

[merrily]

23. But you can understand the 2008 "racially-tinged" campaign Hillary ran as progressive?

[auntpurl]

31. I reject the characterisation.

[merrily]

33. Too bad. It's true. It happened; it was widely reported and recognized; and it had a stench.

[Hortensis]

94. And how. As do very strikingly most "POC."

[Hortensis]

99. Good point.

It is a shame that neither of them could get the youth vote out in the numbers we need. I saw a poll of millennials that tried to measure "enthusiasm," and it was dismayingly "meh" for both.

(Responsibility belongs squarely with the "youth" themselves, of course, not the candidates. Though perhaps a pass should be given to those still caught up in late adolescence and in need of a parental boot just to launder their underwear before it smells.)

[Demsrule86]

17. Obama lost

towards the end of the campaign ...nine states.... and he limped into the general...she can win and must...did you hear Trumpsters remarks on North Korea? He must be stopped. Time for Bernie to leave the scene and make nice...if he doesn't, he might as well retire. At this point, should Hillary lose, he will be blamed...and his association with the Democratic Party is over. You all can give me all your reasons why it is not his fault...it doesn't matter. He will be blamed...and I think he deserves it.

[merrily]

34. See Reply 21. (Or don't, since you admit you don't listen to reason.)

[Demsrule86]

144. Why would I listen

to anybody who thinks they will go to the convention and wrest the nomination for Bernie when he has lost by all measures?

[Adrahil]

28. At this point, yes. Becuase in the end, the delegates count, and he's way behind. nt

[merrily]

46. A win is still not a loss, no matter how its spun. Neither is a tie a win. Sorry.

[leftynyc]

68. Not really

If you're gambling and you lose $10,000, then on one hand you win $2000 - it's a good hand but you're still $8000 in the hole. Same with the delegates.

[baldguy]

41. He needed to win with a 40 pt margin. He got 9. That's a loss. A **HUGE** loss.

Mean while Clinton needs less than 100 delegates. That's a win.

[merrily]

47. That Hillary started with a 65 point lead and every other advantage and has not put the nom

to bed yet is not a win for Hillary.

[baldguy]

55. After every one of his "victories", the margin Sanders needs to win by increases.

All Clinton needs to ultimately win is beat that margin. So, yeah, Oregon was a win for Clinton.

It's called math. I know math is hard. And I'm sorry.

[merrily]

58. So, what I posted was correct. Thanks!

[baldguy]

66. And that's the reason math-challenged Sanders supporters in the end will be disappointed.

[merrily]

67. Your assumption that I cannot add and subtract is as wrongheaded, baseless and silly as

all your other assumptions. Maybe more arrogant and condescending, though.

[baldguy]

86. If you need 7 to win and you get 5, then you lose. Even if the other person only got 4.

That's the position Sanders is in. That's reality. Stop whining about it.

[yardwork]

104. Hillary didn't start with any lead. We're talking about pledged delegates here.

Hillary is decisively ahead in pledged delegates, earned by voters. We're not even looking at super delegates yet.

[Hortensis]

112. Exactly.

[riversedge]

126. You are mistaken. Hillary won KY (not a tie).

[merrily]

134. No, you're mistaken. I didn't say she tied KY.

[kstewart33]

128. Given the spot that Bernie is in, it is clearly a loss.

Bernie is running out of delegates to win. Delegate wise, last night did not amount to anything.

He's running out of delegates and time.

[MrMickeysMom]

5. I acknowledge your racist comment...

Sorry, but last night was definitely not a night for great commentary, and you just proved it.

[auntpurl]

6. ???

My racist comment? Where?

[Stuckinthebush]

64. Nowhere

It's frustration and anger.

Great OP. Thanks.

[auntpurl]

77. Thanks.

I never would have thought talking honestly about the demographics could be construed as racist. But as you say, it's frustration and anger.

[Adrahil]

32. Racist seriously?

Stop that. It's not racist to note that Bernie has done poorly with minorities and done well with whites. The OP made an assement based on empirical evidence, not based on hate for any particular group.

[beachbum bob]

13. less than 100 delegates are needed by hillary to secure the nomination

the math still doesn't work for sanders and the actions of his supporters guarantee that superdelegates will not move to sanders....I thank sanders supporters for that!!

[auntpurl]

14. Yeah, it's bad optics.

No one wants to be associated with the loose cannon candidacy. Nevada has turned a lot of people off. I've read 4 Bernie supporters here on DU who are distancing themselves from him after that shitshow.

[Human101948]

37. The disgrace was Roberta Lange conducting the proceedings like a U.S.S.R. Poltiburo meeting...

Banging the gavel and seconding her own motion and declaring it passed while the boos showed overwhelming opposition.

[auntpurl]

38. So she was asking for it?

Seriously, I can't believe you want to defend that behaviour. That genuinely surprises me.

[baldguy]

42. Following the rules & not seating delegates who don't show up apparently require death threats.

[auntpurl]

43. I don't know why but

after Nevada, I expected DU Bernie supporters to distance themselves from the thuggish behaviour while still complaining about the result (because that's what they do when they lose, in the main). I did NOT expect them to LEAN IN.

A last surprise in a cycle I thought was too weird to be surprising anymore.

[joshcryer]

48. Planned Parenthood was the final straw for me.

There was a hundred rec'd thread in the Sanders group encouraging people to withdraw their donations from Planned Parenthood.

I mean, it was a caucus, it was loud and annoying, that wasn't even as bad as them yelling at people leaving a Clinton rally, even a little kid. People here were defending that shit. Pretty pathetic.

[auntpurl]

50. Seriously. PLANNED PARENTHOOD.

Who are these people? They are not Democrats.

Yelling "Who gives a shit, BITCH" at Senator Barbara Boxer, of all people. Shocking. And as you say, LA was awful. Vicious red faced thugs.

[merrily]

62. Straining our credulity again, josh? Where you stood has been obvious.

[joshcryer]

81. Huh, you removed your sticky?

I know exactly where you stand: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=104497

In complete denial of horrible behavior by Sanders "supporters." It was supposed to be a positive campaign but it went negative really quick, John Lewis, Planned Parenthood, Dolores Huerta, and a slew of other progressives thrown under the bus by these so called "supporters."

Myself? I stand with the nominee, as a good man, Sanders, will also do. And every vile thing that is said about any Clinton supporter will apply to him, as well. It's only fortunate that such language won't be allowed on this site and Sanders will be respected even by the Clinton supporters, as he deserves. Primaries are ugly. The Sanders vs Clinton feud has been nothing compared to 2008. They've both kept the gloves on. Sanders could've easily used the emails to his advantage and it would've had a good chance of working, too, but he's a bigger man than that, even as his "supporters" drag it out on a near daily basis.

The disrespect for Sanders by his own "supporters" is going to be visible on other sites, however, and it'll be easily documented and peoples true colors will out.

[merrily]

85. Rant on with that nonsense, but none of that was the point of my post, as you know.

If you only want to rant, do an OP. Don't pretend it's a reply to my post.

[joshcryer]

87. I point out ugliness.

And I posted a thread where you pretended it didn't exist.

It's not rocket science.

[merrily]

95. No. I pointed out your hypocrisy and you changed the subject.There's nothing lofty about that

on your part. I never pretended any thread I started didn't exist, so now I point out that bit of dishonesty on your part, too.

Also, you apparently did not understand that thread of mine you linked, even though it's not rocket science. The thread of mine to which you linked me is telling people to stop lying about Sanders' supporters. Don't know why you'd think I'd deny its existence. To the contrary, I hope you and others take it to heart.

[joshcryer]

98. No, you implied a faulty assumption.

You see, because I'm not a hypocrite and I will fully support Sanders as he stumps for our nominee, and I will do as he directs, and vote against Trump. It's not rocket science.

Meanwhile you will continue bashing the nominee, her supporters, and directly bash Sanders himself. Proving your actual hypocrisy and how deep your support for him goes. A mile wide and an inch deep.

[merrily]

103. I implied nothing. I said stuff flat out. Or do you mean inferred? I don't "bash," either.

As for the rest of my post, Josh, your attempt to echo back my words to pretend they apply to me rather than you is too transparent and clunky to be Rovian. When done that amateurishly, it just comes across as lame and sad.

[joshcryer]

105. Um, you didn't say shit flat out.

You claimed to know where "I stood." But you don't say where I stand. I stand with the nominee, have always stood with the nominee, and my state went for Sanders, as I predicted it would, with my efforts. Now, while you pretend to know me, and want to make some implication about where I "stand" I will smile knowing that your hypocrisy will soon be shown.

A mile wide and an inch deep. That's where your support of Sanders is. You know it, I know it. And I am saying it flat out.

[merrily]

138. Um, no. You don't know crap about my support of Sanders, but, then again, I never pretended to

support anyone else, then flip. I was for Sanders, always have been and still am. You and a bunch of others, not so much. No clue why, but none of you fooled anyone anyway, so I guess the only harm done was to whatever credibility any of you may have had before pretending to support Sanders.

[joshcryer]

141. You won't be rallying behind Sanders when he stumps for Clinton.

I'd be utterly shocked and mystified if you support Clinton when he does. If you drop the utterly vile contempt you have for her. Shocked.

[Surya Gayatri]

15. K & R most enthusiastically. SO well said.

[aikoaiko]

16. Maybe so but I'm glad he has not conceded.

Go Bernie!

[auntpurl]

18. I'm not calling for him to concede but

I wish he would focus his ire on Trump and not the Democratic party. He's not stupid, and I don't believe he's delusional. He knows he can't win. He's a fiery guy, so let him focus the heat on the real enemy.

[aikoaiko]

26. Not conceding means fighting HRC for the nomination at every moment

Last edited Wed May 18, 2016, 07:16 AM - Edit history (1)

It's still the primary and he has only expressed anti-trump rhetoric when he does address the GE.

[Scootaloo]

152. I wish Clinton supporters would practice what they preach

Or if they can't, stop preaching so damn much.

[auntpurl]

153. When was the last time you heard Hillary mention Bernie?

It's been a while.

[Scootaloo]

154. I did say Clinton supporters, didn't I?

Way it looks to me, you guys will still be bitching and moaning about Sanders all the way to November.

[auntpurl]

155. YOU did, but the post you were replying to was

about what BERNIE is doing. Not his supporters.

[Scootaloo]

156. And I can talk about what I like.

I see you've only just very recently re-joined us, so, first, welcome back. Second, subthreads tend to diverge from the main discussion. That's what makes them sub-threads.I've seen threads about politics turn into threads about knitting. It's how we do here on DU.

[merrily]

25. +1

[PufPuf23]

19. Compare Hillary Clinton vs Obama in 2008 in Kentucky vs Clinton vs Sanders 2016

and claim that Kentucky went well for Hillary Clinton.

Also Sanders 2016 did considerably better than Obama 2016 as Sanders had a virtual tie with Clinton.

The vote for Sanders was likely depressed because Sanders is the presumptive loser.

Revealing article from 2008 about Kentucky primary.

Context for the Kentucky primary today and also the 2016 campaign in general.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/primary.wrap/

Note the article is 5/20/2008. I recommend read the entire article, it is short.

Some excerpts:

Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by more than 30% in 2008 and less than 0.5% in 2016.

From the article:

Neither candidate is expected to reach the 2,026 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination.

That means the race is likely to be settled by "super-delegates" -- party leaders and officials who will cast votes at the Democratic convention in August.

After Kentucky's results came in, Clinton thanked her supporters for handing her a win "even in the face of some pretty tough odds."

"Tonight we have achieved an important victory," she said in Louisville.

Clinton beat Obama across all age groups, income groups and education levels in Kentucky.

"It's not just Kentucky bluegrass that's music to my ears. It's the sound of your overwhelming vote of confidence even in the face of some pretty tough odds."

Two-thirds of Clinton's supporters there said they would vote Republican or not vote at all rather than for Obama, according to the polls.

Forty-one percent of Clinton supporters said they'd cast their vote for McCain, and 23 percent said they would not vote at all.

[auntpurl]

20. I AM comparing them.

For heaven's sake, this is not complicated. Hillary is Obama 08. Bernie is Hillary 08. Look at the maps! Overlay them. They are nearly identical. Therefore, Bernie should have won Kentucky.

As I said in my OP, Hillary is winning with Obama's voters. It's been obvious for MONTHS.

[PufPuf23]

24. I had noticed that - Clinton winning states Obama won in 2008 and Sanders vice versa -

and posted that about a month ago.

Pretty big flip for Hillary Clinton in Kentucky.

Thankfully Clinton and Sanders each had more votes individually than Trump.

Ugh why have I woken up so early?

[merrily]

30. It's a false equivalency. Obama had media on his side plus many Democrats, including PTB like

Kennedy, Reid, Kerry. Bernie has had everything and almost everyone against him.

[Adrahil]

35. Not to put too fine a point on it....

But I expect Obama's poor performance in WV and KY had a lot to do with a factor that is not at play in this primary season.

[auntpurl]

36. Actually, it is still in play.

Hillary is winning with Obama's POC voters. And losing the areas she's losing for similar reasons - he was black, she is a woman. Some white dudes aren't too fond of either group.

Edited to add: but I take your point. That may well be part of the reason why we see this difference from 08.

[oasis]

22. Time for Bernie to fold up his tent and go quietly into the night.

[merrily]

27. Luckily, that's not your decision. It's not even mine, and I am a donor.

He owes her and the DNC nothing, but he'll probably help her anyway.

[oasis]

39. Bernie can go on being defiant for all I care. He doesn't seem

to worry how silly he'll look spitting into the wind for the next two months.

[merrily]

49. If you don't care, what's the point of posting he should quit? In fact, even if you do care,

what's the point of posting that? Not like he's reading DU to figure out what he should do.

[auntpurl]

40. He can stay, but

if he keeps trashing the Democratic party, his career in politics is over.

[oasis]

44. He's becoming too radioactive for any super delegates to get

behind him at the convention.

[auntpurl]

45. Yeah. As I said above, people are going to be edging away

after Nevada. No one want to be associated with the loose cannon candidacy.

[B Calm]

53. I watched his speech last night and again this morning on Cspan. He didn't attack Hillary at all,

instead he moved on to Trump and destroyed him.

[auntpurl]

54. Excellent. Glad to hear it.

Long may it continue.

[workinclasszero]

56. No way in hell are any supers getting behind Sanders now

after Nevada and his totally unacceptable response to the intimidation and death threats from his rabid followers.

[Vinca]

51. I thought it was a very good night for Bernie, especially considering

the number of Independents who didn't know it was a closed primary and showed up to vote in Kentucky but couldn't. If anyone should have had a blowout, it's Hillary. Kentucky has always been a Hillary state, but it's so close they haven't officially called it yet. If all primaries were open primaries, Bernie would be running away with this race.

[auntpurl]

52. "Kentucky has always been a Hillary state."

You still don't understand. Hillary 16 is Obama 08. Therefore, BERNIE should have won Kentucky.

[Vinca]

59. That's a very silly analogy.

You might as well say Hillary 16 is Hubert Humphrey 68. No one is anyone else. Each election stands on its own.

[auntpurl]

61. Look at the electoral maps.

They are nearly identical. Hillary is winning with the Obama coalition. All other variances people have tried to tout (closed/open primaries, previous states won) do not pan out. But this one is proven state after state. That is the reality.

[Vinca]

65. But Hillary is not Obama. By a long shot.

[auntpurl]

70. That's true. She's winning by more than he ever was.

[Vinca]

140. Too bad she can't rustle up a crowd that looks larger than free lunch day at the senior center.

[auntpurl]

142. Yes, she's not amazing with huge rallies, bumper stickers, or yard signs

She tends to have smaller, substantive meetings where she listens to voters instead of shouting the same old stump speech.

You know what she is good at? Getting voters to show up at the polls.

[Vinca]

145. "instead of shouting . . . " That's a joke, right?

The woman doesn't seem to be able to speak in a normal tone anymore. And as for material, the longer Bernie stays in the more she steals from him. She's such a weak candidate I fear November is going to be a blood bath.

[bjo59]

57. You're not afraid and your not sorry, so why say so?

[auntpurl]

60. Just being polite.

Sorry. I live in Britain. It's sort of what we do.

[Thinkingabout]

63. Yes, it will be a need for over 100% of the delegate count in the primaries.

[auntpurl]

69. Just 130 more states to go and Bernie's got this!

[Thinkingabout]

79. Maybe we could capture some more territory before the convention to

Provide more primaries.

[chwaliszewski]

88. Is that facetiousness really necessary?

Please stop being a sore winner.

[auntpurl]

90. I was only joking.

I've seen people on this website call Hillary everything from a whore to a warmonger to a Nazi. But by all means, if my mild humor offends you, please accept my apology.

[chwaliszewski]

101. Apology accepted.

I don't like Hillary at all but the name calling is unnecessary, I agree.

[auntpurl]

102. I look forward to DU in civil mode.

We can agree on that.

[gordianot]

71. Right it was a bad night for Bernie it was also a bad night for Hillary.

Donald Trump is easily the most dangerous candidate to ever run for the Presidency. Deadlock, dissonance and self indulgence rule. There are no options to end the malaise we as a species are in survival mode. Maybe what survives will become Sapient through natural selection.

[auntpurl]

74. Hillary is in an extremely strong position going into the convention and the GE.

She's retained the Obama coalition and is picking up more voters of her own. Obama won handily, and so will she. We cannot be complacent, but the doomsaying is ridiculous.

[gordianot]

91. Hillary is a corrupt neo con more of a tool than a leader.

Sanders never stood a chance he was a thought experiment. The Democratic Party is in the process of losing its way. It will be interesting to see what replaces the American Republic as both parties self implode. This is not dooms day it is natural selection.

As far as Obama is concerned at least he was likable and essentially in most cases honest.

[auntpurl]

93. Ok.

*backs away slowly*

[Logical]

72. Lol, i love your dramatic title. Silly. Nt

[auntpurl]

75. Is it dramatic?

I wouldn't have thought so, but ok.

[Progressive dog]

73. Three million more votes for Hillary so far

and leading by about 20% in pledged delegates with over 80% of the states having voted. It's was a race, but now Hillary can coast to the finish.

[auntpurl]

76. I still think she will win California.

Which will be a terrible blow to the Bernie true believers.

[texstad79]

114. Not only will she win,

it will be a double digit blowout!

[B Calm]

78. and only 57 million more people haven't voted. How proud you must be!

[auntpurl]

80. Everyone should vote their conscience in the primary.

[Progressive dog]

89. You seem to be confusing population with

voters.

[RazBerryBeret]

82. ha. thanks for trying...

but no raining on my parade today.

[auntpurl]

83. Hey, march away, my friend.

Just talking reality here. Don't let me spoil anything for you.

[vi5]

106. HRC supporters are in for a rude awakening...

I'm not a Bernie supporter by any means. As a staunch Democrat for 30 years I am disheartened by both our options this time around. And let me tell you, once Hillary and her supporters no longer have Bernie and his supporters around to blame, it's going to be a cold splash of water. The general perception of people outside of this DU bubble that I know is visceral dislike of Hillary and the type of politics she represents. Yes, it's totally anecdotal evidence, I know that. But at this point it's clearly no less reliable an indicator than anything else that's been thrown out there this crazy election cycle.

The fact is that Trump is going to be relying on hatred to motivate the Republican voters. Hatred of Hillary that has been stewing among that Demographic for literally decades.

Hillary is going to be relying on fear. Fear of President Trump.

And bottom line human nature is that hatred is a much more powerful motivator than fear. Fear makes people cower and hide. Hatred mobilizes them.

There will be no mass exodus of Republican voters. They may not love Trump, or even like him. But they will vote for him. He is the culmination of the hatred they have been forced to hide and veil for years, and the media and the Republican party, and everyone else has now told them it's o.k. for them to let it loose. And it will be directed at one person: Hillary Clinton.

[auntpurl]

108. More doomsaying.

You cannot win a US presidential election with just white dudes. There aren't enough of them. The Romney problem.

Women, AAs, Latinos, Muslims, Asians, all will vote for Hillary in huge numbers. Hillary is in a stronger position going into the convention and the GE than Obama was. She's retained his coalition and picked up voters of her own.

Your anecdotal evidence does not account for the fact that Hillary has more votes than Trump in the primaries. It does not account for the fact that she will have Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Bill Clinton, and President Obama on the stump trail for her, where Trump will struggle to even find an acceptable running mate, much less a coalition of respected Republicans to stand behind him.

We cannot be complacent. But Trump will not win.

[vi5]

113. We'll see....

Again, I've voted straight Dem ballot no matter the candidate in every election from Presidential down to local dog catcher for the past almost 30 years. I've donated, I've canvased, I've stuffed envelopes, I've driven people to polling places. And the most I'm going to do this time around is drag myself to the polls and hold my nose and vote for Clinton. And I know a lot of folks of the same demographic and background that feel the same way. So the notion that she's going to retain Obama's coalition is naive. If I'm going to have to force myself to vote for her when I voted for Obama enthusiastically twice, and I know plenty of folks who voted for him who have no plans to vote for Hillary...I can't believe we're not the only ones.

But I guess we'll see, won't we. It won't matter though because even if she does lose you can just blame it on the Bernie Bros and convince yourselves that Hillary couldn't fail, that she could only be failed.

[gordianot]

118. Ponies, rainbows and unicorns.

Every Clintonian response is so predictable. Many of the same voters elected George Bush twice are included in the magic 3 million, damn those white males. A consensus is coming. Bernie might be able to help you out with the Ponies, Rainbows, and Unicorns. He does not miss speak very often. I intend to really celebrate 2017.

[vi5]

119. Trump will get Bush voters and then some.

The base of angry white dudes and vehement racists were not exactly enamored of McCain or Romney so turnout was low.

[gordianot]

124. Once upon a time in Missouri the hot populist ticket was Jerry Litton.

Progressive extremely popular Liberal died in a plane crash. You could say from the same State that gave the country Rush Limbaugh and Ferguson MO. Right now Ferguson has a new African American Police chief unimaginable 2 years ago and the nasty sack of walking talking pale skin Rush Limbaugh is failing financially. Maybe a new Jerry Litton will come along. Evolution is part of life.

[auntpurl]

125. You're right. Stuff changes.

That's why states like GA and TX are in play for the Dems in the GE. I'd like it if we could all get behind our nominee and SHOVE to make sure that happens. POC can't do it alone.

[vi5]

129. You're absolutely right.

But right now. In 2016. In this environment. In this election. Hillary Clinton is not that Jerry Litton, and not that evolution.

[gordianot]

131. Sanders would have come close to Litton who was to the left of Sanders.

At least the conversation is started for that I as a 40 year voting Democrat am grateful. Missouri was close.

[vi5]

146. You're more optimistic than I am.

A conversation requires the other side actually listen. Sanders and his supporters have always been little more than nuisances to the Democratic establishment, who need to be placated in order to get to that end goal of victory and then discarded.

Obama ran to the left of Clinton on many issues and governed as a centrist. Clinton is center right. The idea that she or her camp will take anything away from Sanders and his supporters is I think, incredibly naive.

I mean her campaign slogan and strategy is quite literally "I probably won't make anything worse".

[stevenleser]

135. No, he won't. Bush got 44% of the Latino vote, Romney 27% and Trump is polling in single digits.

That right there is a huge shift in a voting block.

Trump will also do considerably worse than Bush and Romney with women voters.

Those two issues are the election right there.

[Garrett78]

149. There's a reason oddsmakers say Clinton is likely to be the next POTUS.

In spite of what some on DU proclaim, Clinton has a good shot at winning in November by an even larger margin than Obama did.

As a Washington Post article pointed out, the 19 states (plus DC) that have been won by the Democratic candidate in each of the last 6 presidential elections have a total of 242 electoral college votes. Just 28 more and it's game over.

[gordianot]

109. Winner, yes exactly.

[Hortensis]

115. Conservatives are strongly motivated by fear.

Their higher levels of anxiety and fear, and the effect on their decisions, is one of the defining characteristics of conservatives (compared to liberals).

Which directions the thought of the Trump with his finger on the nuclear trigger will push the various conservative types is the question. It seems quite likely that most women will not look to Trump to safeguard their loved ones, however. Quite the contrary. That fear thing.

[vi5]

120. They hate Clinton more than they fear Trump

Guaranteed.

No, women who aren't Republicans by nature are not going to switch and vote for Trump. But Republican women will vote for him. The Republican women I know are the biggest HRC haters of them all.

[Hortensis]

123. "They" are not monolithic. "They" are people.

Your imaginings are vastly overblown. Next time you're in a group, take surreptitious but careful looks at those who remain silent or nod pleasantly while the haters spew their usual. And count heads.

[vi5]

127. I do....

I'm usually the only one who remains silent or nods my head.

And by "they" I mean Republicans. And yes, they are in fact lockstep and monolithic. I think the past 25 years or so have shown that time and time again.

With Obama we were able to overcome the monolith because non-Republicans and independents liked and trusted him.

[gordianot]

133. I wrote my Masters Thesis on use of pronouns in reading comprehension.

"They" is an anaphoric pronoun dependent on prior identification of specific referent in context. Pronouns cause problems for Elementary readers because early reading material uses word recognition formulas and "they" is a complex concept based on the readers experience. It should be possible for an adult reader to fill in the blanks. Fill in the blank for "they"; conservatives, progressives, people who know the referent personally, people who do not know the referent, it is monolithic. Haters, supporters, advocates, detractors also run into vast numbers. At one time I knew the Clinton's in the first person "he", "she" guess which category I fall?

[Hortensis]

147. I need a sword to help untangle this.

[gordianot]

148. That cuts the knot.

[Hortensis]

150. Seriously, I often wince over

my own pronoun-verb disagreements, but it sounds like your wince reflex may be a lot more easily triggered.

[gordianot]

157. We are all susceptible to the so called strawman argument.

English pronouns are difficult to master even for native English speakers. I am a little preachy on that subject. My response had 5 such referents done without thinking.

[Hortensis]

158. Seriously, it's possible to "master" them?

It's been a very long time since I examined this, I think William Safire was probably still on patrol, but my cave was that the best one could do was use the most common and comfortably accepted pairing, or, as I prefer, the one least likely to distract from the topic. Obviously that didn't work here.

I haven't checked back to where I went wrong yet, but I wouldn't mind an example at all. ??

[gordianot]

159. Current research implies the distance of the original referent is a factor.

You have to retain in memory the original referent making it difficult. This relates to English being a nomitive-accusative language.

[Hortensis]

161. Well, I can believe that - and more difficult for some

than others as time goes on. I also use my fingers to add and subtract these days.

[DCBob]

110. Indeed. For all practical purposes he lost both contests.

He needed blowouts in both and got neither. Its just two more states off the list which puts Hillary closer and closer to the nomination.

[auntpurl]

116. I genuinely did expect a bigger win for him in Oregon.

I expected it to look more like Washington. This is a sign his campaign is waning.

[lagomorph777]

111. Hillaryous fantasy, but here in America a 10% margin is called a "victory"

[auntpurl]

117. Ok then.

I wouldn't call numbers a "fantasy", but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

[thesquanderer]

121. OTOH, HRC beat Obama 65-30 in '08, and Oregon poll had BS down by 15.

re: "Oregon should have been a blowout. Tailor made for him. White and/or super liberal. "

But also a closed primary, with him polling 15 points down as reported here many times...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511936923
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511948964
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511966510
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511936998
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511948839
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511940218

re: "And he should have won KY. Hillary's electoral maps from 16 are extremely similar to Obama 08. She is winning with the Obama coalition...judging by how this whole primary has gone so far, Bernie should have won KY by a decent margin."

But KY is also strong Hillary country. In the 2008 primary, she won with a whopping 65.48% of the vote, to Obama's 29.92%. She couldn't hold on to those who voted for her last time, while Sanders far out-performed Obama.

Still, despite strong showings in KY and OR, he's not picking up enough delegates to overtake Hillary, and he's running out of states.

[auntpurl]

122. No, you don't understand.

It's the other way around. Hillary 16 is Obama 08, and Bernie 16 is Hillary 08. Hillary is winning with Obama's coalition. She didn't need to hold on to her old voters. I'm not just pulling this out of my butt - look at the electoral maps, they are nearly identical. I don't need to convince you - the evidence is there. Time and again this primary, Hillary 16 has won Obama's 08 areas. Therefore, BERNIE should have won KY, and Hillary did very well to beat him in a close race.

To your last point, we are in accord.

[Lizzie Poppet]

137. Glaring absence from the Obama coalition for Hillary: young voters.

She doesn't even win young black voters in many areas.

[auntpurl]

139. You're right, that is one difference.

To make up for it, she has voters over 45 on lockdown.

But I take your point. That is one difference. However, my larger point that if you look at the electoral maps for Hillary 16 and Obama 08 they are extremely similar still stands.

[Lizzie Poppet]

143. No argument, re: electoral maps. (nm)

I'm not sure her success among older folks is indeed enough to make up for tanking among younger voters, but we'll likely find out soon enough.

[arcane1]

130. Welcome back. Don't you love reincarnation? n/t

[auntpurl]

132. ? In what sense?

[Lizzie Poppet]

136. "urban diverse vs rural white"

Oregon's population is heavily concentrated in a couple of urban areas (and the rural areas are overwhelmingly "red" and the rather large majority of voters in those counties vote in the GOP primary, not the Democratic one). Portland is more diverse than you may realize, although with a heavier Latino and Asian component and less of a black one. The 'burbs, on the other hand, are often pretty centrist (that is, leaning Democratic, but with a lot of center-left to center-right folk...perfect Hillary territory). And she still got clobbered here by over 10%.

[anotherproletariat]

151. Even worse (since clearly the race is over, so no one is paying attention to that) is the violence.

It's the only thing the media is reporting on this morning. If I just started paying attention today, I would think that Sanders is encouraging a bunch of thugs. Not a good image for a presidential candidate, or someone who wants to have any national legacy at all.

[mhatrw]

160. LOL. Sanders won by 12% in Oregon. Clinton cheated her way to a 0.5% "victory" in closed primary

in a Southern state. Despite every advantage in name recognition, corporate media coverage, and DNC and Democratic party machine support, Sanders has already won 1500 pledged delegates.

Despite the corporate media declaring the race long over, Sanders has won 4 of the last 5 states. And Clinton squeaked by in a closed primary in the last Southern state.