The Fat Lady Is Warming Up

[DemocratSinceBirth]

As of November 1, 5:00PM EDT:
Obama: 315
Romney: 223
Meta-margin: Obama +2.56%
RSS
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 96%, Bayesian Prediction 99.0%

http://election.princeton.edu/

[Always Randy]

1. Old Mill

That expression is rather old millenium. One would expect that we have moved on from sizism and sexism. In that regard, it ain't over 'til Rush Limbaugh sings

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It's Not Over Until Rush Pops An Oxycontin/nt

[Maximumnegro]

4. Then It's Over!!!...And Over...and, wait a sec - OVERR!!!!

[Logical]

3. NO SHE IS NOT! Still a damn close election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. No. It Is Not To Anybody Who Has Take Statistics 1001/nt

[Logical]

7. I am not stupid enough to think we won it like we did in 2004.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Most Of The Aggregators Who Predicted An O Win In 08 And Now Predicted A Bush* Win In 04.

And if autosearch was available you could see that I wasn't surprised Bush* won.


That being said , a lot of us including me were thrown off on election day by the leaking of raw exit polls. It's hard not be moved by them as they are polls of people who already voted.

[Logical]

9. I am paranoid I will admit. I am not sure of anything at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Have A Lot To Say About This Election But I Will Wait Until It's Over

Doubt is part of the human condition whether it's based on reason or not. Remember when you were back in school and you took a test in a subject you historically did well in. I am not referring to a subject you didn't do well in. And you were concerned about the results. Well, the results came back and you did fine. Your concern wasn't based on reason but on emotion.

There is a lot of evidence. There's a ton of polling data and it's all pointing in one direction when you accumulate it all... It could all be wrong...But reason tells us that's not very likely.

[Logical]

11. You are right. I am a numbers guy also. I know Nates method is great. I just hate being confident.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Doubt Is Part Of The Human Condition

It's like when you are in school and you answer a question. Some times the teacher will ask you if you are sure that's your answer. Sometimes the teacher asks you because your answer might be wrong and sometimes he or she asked you because your answer is right and he or she wants to give you a lesson in confidence as well as the subject.

[Maximumnegro]

6. only if you listen to the pundits