Gallup Daily: U.S. Unemployment drops to 7.0%

[ashtonelijah]

As of 10/31, Gallup has the unemployment rate at 7.0%. It was at 7.5% on 10/19 and has steadily dropped since. Gallup was in line with the BLS report on 10/2, showing a 7.8% unemployment rate.

[Marsala]

1. Wonderful if true but hard to believe

I trust Gallup's economic polling about as much as I trust their political polling now.

[ashtonelijah]

2. Yeah, but it's a different formula

And they did accurately predict the last BLS report and I believe they've been pretty in line in the past.

[NoOneMan]

6. What I don't understand,

Is when I visit certain places, I see the most happening areas (like around the movie theaters) where half of the shops are empty and for lease. I don't live in the midst of this, so I can't get a taste of it, but it seems bad. Am I wrong?

[LiberalFighter]

21. Some places may be recovering better than where you are at.

I've notice new construction happening in our area. We are getting a Costco close by which is good news in many respects. We have a 3rd shift at the GM plant.

Some places may not have planned.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

18. Link =

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, fell to 7.0% for the month of October, down significantly from the 7.9% measured at the end of September. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 7.4%, improved more than a half a point from September.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158483/unadjusted-unemployment-down-october.aspx

[Dubster]

3. Spam deleted by gkhouston (MIR Team)

[TroyD]

4. Gallup was right about the Jobs Numbers last month

They predicted 7.8 and they turned out to be right.

[AaronMayorga]

5. That would be a historic drop! n/t

[yellowcanine]

7. I think Gallup does not seasonally adjust as BLS does. Christmas hiring is probably pulling their

number down some already. Still, it may portend a good BLS number tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. I'd be happy with staying steady or slight drop

[ashtonelijah]

9. For comparison, here's Gallup vs. BLS 2011-2012

Pretty close. Sometimes Gallup is 2 or 3 points lower, tied, or a point higher. First number is BLS, second is Gallup. There wasn't a huge dip around Christmas hiring time last year in Gallup compared to BLS, although Gallup does have a 5 point lower UR for Nov. 2011. But both have 12/2011 at 8.5.

8/2011 9.0, Gallup  8.8

9/2011 9.0 Gallup 8.9

10/2011 8.9, Gallup 8.7

11/2011 8.7, Gallup 8.3

12/2011 8.5, Gallup 8.5

6/2012  8.2, Gallup 8.0

7/2012 8.3, Gallup 7.9

8/2012, 8.1, Gallup 8.2

 9/2012 7.8, Gallup 7.8

[onenote]

13. Is the November number in this chart the number released in November

(for October) or the number for November (released in December)?

[budkin]

10. If true... GOP heads will just EXPLODE

[DCBob]

11. Looks like tomorrow's number will be good.

Which should be the final nail in Robme's political coffin.

[LA Kings Fan]

12. Seasonally adjusted unemployment declines to 7.4%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158483/unadjusted-unemployment-down-october.aspx

[img][/img]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, fell to 7.0% for the month of October, down significantly from the 7.9% measured at the end of September. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 7.4%, improved more than a half a point from September.

Implications

Gallup's decline in seasonally adjusted unemployment, the closest comparison to the official numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggests that the BLS will report another decline in the unemployment rate when it releases the numbers on Friday.

Holiday sales are expected to improve over last year, which could be contributing to some of the increased hiring this year. Unless a significant number of permanent jobs are added in the coming months, unadjusted unemployment will increase again in early 2013 as seasonal jobs end. Still, the decline in seasonally adjusted unemployment and year-over-year unadjusted unemployment are a promising sign that more Americans are finding the work they desire.

[99th_Monkey]

14. That 7.0% figure is obviously wrong.

skewed to favor Obama Administration.

This is self-evidently true, because the ReThuglicans
say so. Hell, they didn't work their asses off to shove
their pet narrative of "Obama fails to address jobs and
the economy" down all our throats for 4 long years,
just to have big government bean-counters prove that
they are the ones who failed, in their attempt to completely
sabotage Obama's policies for economic recovery.

[just1voice]

15. Gallup is a propaganda company, here's how unemployment is actually calculated

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also calculates six alternate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6, that measure different aspects of unemployment:[41]

* U1:[42] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[1]
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.

* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment#United_States_Bureau_of_Labor_statistics

[ashtonelijah]

16. Seasonally adjusted at 7.4 is good too. Ronald Reagan won with 7.2%

When Reagan won re-election with by a landslide in 1984, unemployment dropped to 7.2 that October, the same as when he came into office, That was after a brutal four years in which the rate soared above 10% in his second and third year and his approval ratings fell to 40%. Obama, by comparison, also saw the rate hit 10% around his second or third year and hit the low 40s in approval rating.

Reagan should've lost 1984. He was expected to easily.

He won a landslide.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. It Would Be Beyond Hilarious If Tomorrow's Figures Are Anywhere Near 7%/nt

[WallaceRitchie]

19. Any reduction

Any improvement on last month's 7.8% will cause rightwing heads to explode. It could be a VERY entertaining end of the week....

[DCBob]

22. The RWingnuts will screaming and howling the numbers are manipulated.

oh how sweet that would be.

[JiminyJominy]

20. It'll Be

7.8% most likely and an outside chance at 7.7%.