2016 Postmortem

imagine2015

(2,054 posts) Tue May 17, 2016, 11:28 PM May 2016

The Facts Reveal Hillary Clinton Is an Extremely Vulnerable Candidate

May 17, 2016
Establishment Democrats and the Next March of Folly
On choosing the only candidate Trump could beat
by John Atcheson

Incredibly, the Establishment arm of the Democratic Party – which is to say most of the inside-the-beltway elite, including the corporate press and punditry, the DLC, and of course the super delegates – is aligned behind the Democratic candidate who is most at risk of losing to Trump.

To not run the candidate most likely to defeat him in the general election is a form of political malpractice. To run a candidate who could very well lose to him verges on criminal. Yet such is the power of entrenched self-interest - such is the commitment to the status quo – that this is precisely what the Democratic the Party is intent on doing. Indeed, the collective power of the Establishment has been gathered against Sanders in a confederacy of dunces from the very start, doing everything they can to assure that they nominate a status quo candidate in a year when people are screaming for a reformist.

The Facts Reveal Clinton Is an Extremely Vulnerable Candidate

There have been many excellent analyses that clearly and incontrovertibly show why Clinton is the weakest of the two candidates they could field against Trump. Here’s a summary:

Sanders does better than Hillary against Trump in every poll and has for months now. In the latest summary of polls, Hillary beats Trump by just 5.7%, barely out of the margin of error, and in a few polls she actually loses to him.
Sanders beats Trump by twice Clinton’s slender margin. 13%. ‘Nuff said.

Most potential voters view Hillary unfavorably. Her net favorable/unfavorable rating has been sinking and in the latest Real Clear Politics’ data now stands at a negative 15.5%. Only 39% view her favorably, while 54.5% hold an unfavorable view of her.

More potential voters hold a positive view of Sanders than any other candidate. His net favorability rating has been hovering at around a positive 10.5%, with more than half of all potential voters expressing a positive view of him.

Most people don’t trust Hillary. According to a rolling Reuters poll, more than 60% of those responding disagreed with the statement that Hillary Clinton is trustworthy, while only 22% found her trustworthy.

Her extreme flip-flops and history of distorting the truth play into the distrust. The fact that she’s been all over the place on such defining issues as regulating Wall Street and the big banks; climate and energy policy; gay marriage; trade agreements; the XL pipeline; Iraq and regime change – on and on it goes – will make it extraordinarily difficult for her to regain trust. Then there’s her record of politically expedient fantasies such as being “fired on while landing in Bosnia” or “broke” when leaving the White House which will be fodder for Republicans in the general campaign.

Democrats need to win two out of the big three swing states to win the general election: Hillary is in trouble in all three, while Sanders wins. Since 1960, no candidate has won the Presidency without winning two of the following three swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Polling shows Clinton neck and neck with Trump in Florida, losing by a significant margin in Ohio, and in a de facto draw in Pennsylvania. Sanders beats Trump in all three.

Democrats need to win independents to gain the Presidency. According to a recent GWU poll, Hillary runs 5 points behind Trump with Independents, while Sanders beats him. With Independents making up 42% of voters, Democrats 29% and Republicans around 26%, this will be the key battleground and it will determine who wins.

Read the full article at:
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/05/17/establishment-democrats-and-next-march-folly