CNN/ORC poll of Colorado likely voters: Obama 50%, Romney 48%

[TroyD]

(CNN) – Hours before President Barack Obama campaigns in Boulder, Colorado, a new survey indicates a very close contest between the president and Republican nominee Mitt Romney for the Centennial State's nine electoral votes.

According to a CNN/ORC International poll, 50% of likely voters in Colorado support Obama, with 48% backing the former Massachusetts governor. The president's two-point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/01/cnn-poll-tight-race-in-rocky-mountain-battleground-2/?hpt=hp_t2

[aaaaaa5a]

1. How many times will Wolf Blitzer call this a tie this evening.

We could play a drinking game.

[ffr]

2. Holy Mackerel, that's what my EV calculations show too ~2%

See my assumption and explanation at the center.

GOTV Colorado (CO), 11/01/12 Dems close gap
With 1,305885 votes cast in early voting, Reps lead Dems by 3.8 points
Republican lead
~36,565 votes

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 457,060 or 35.0 percent (Dems to Reps only 48.1%)
Republicans -- 493,625 or 37.8 percent (Dems to Reps only 51.9%)
Others -- 355,201 or 27.2 percent

Assuming Colorado IAPs support based on recent polls of 48/31 (79% of 1.00) in favor of Obama and unscientifically assuming the majority of the 21% undecideds split the same way and discarding what remains (about 5%) as votes for 3rd party candidates, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 663,361 or 51.4%
Reps: 626,861 or 48.6%

This may be or may not be something closer to a realistic conservative estimate of the final result ratios, but it does place weight on undecideds. So pick which ratios you believe.
GMU.EDU 2012 Election Statistics
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GOTV my fellow Democrats. Come on Colorado! Swing the congressional balance of power to Obama. Victory 2012

[TroyD]

3. Thanks for the info