Election Forecast Summaries: 11/1 (afternoon)
I've added a new tracker to this list, TPM's which is powered by PollTracker. Tx4Obama gave me a huge list of electoral maps last night, but except for TPM, most of the ones I didn't have were more interested in keeping it a horse race than in presenting an up to date snapshot.
From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.
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Votamatic: O 332 (unch)
Election Projection: O 290 (new)
University of Illinois U-C: O 294.4 (unch); p(RE)=97.9% (unch)
Electoral-vote.com: O 299, R 206, T 33 (O+19, T-19)
Huffington Post: O 277, R 206, T 55 (unch)
TPM/PollTracker: O 285, R 191, T 62 (new)
FiveThirtyEight: O 300.4 (+1.4); p(RE)=79.0% (+1.6%)
Princeton: O 316 (O+13); p(RE)=96%, 99.1% (+3%, +1%)
DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=86.84% (+0.15%)[/font]
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...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,428!
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