Taking Nate Silver's football analogy and running with it.

[robertpaulsen]

5 more days. I don't think I'm alone here in getting a bit obsessive with my poll watching. Where do we really stand? It seems there's analogies all over the place trying to provide perspective. But whereas most polling analogies try to compare this Presidential election with other Presidential elections in the past (2012 is like 2004, 2012 is like 1980, etc.), I like Nate Silver's most recent sports analogy the best:

Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/#more-36981

I would agree with this analogy, but I think more details are necessary to provide the proper perspective of President Obama's chances of winning the election. So Obama leads by 3 points with 3 minutes left. Who has possession of the football in this analogy? I believe Hurricane Sandy has put possession squarely in Obama's hands. It's an important possession. He can't just run out the clock by spiking the football (i.e. flying over the damage for a photo-op of him looking out the window with a look of grave concern) and high-fiving his teammates. ("You're doing a heckuva job, Brownie!&quot Obama needs a first down to win the whole game.

How close are we? I would say that President Obama just completed a nine yard run with a helpful block, inadvertent or not, from Governor Christie. It's second down with one yard to go for victory. There are no timeouts left and the clock is still ticking. Also, if you take into account our GOTV ground game in the swing states, I would say we're inside the 20 yard line in Romney territory.

I'm liking this analogy a lot! Help me out if you think I'm missing any details.

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. the analogy doesn't quite work for me....

because of what you said - who has the football? The comforting thing - Romney is not even close to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or name your quarterback for whom 3 minutes is an eternity.

Also, Obama's defense is nothing like the Patriots secondary!

so it needs a few qualifiers, though I get the gist of what Nate is trying to say.

Better analogy for me - Obama has a 3 run lead in baseball in the 9th inning and a damn good bullpen, working against a pretty weak lineup.

yes, I am quite confident in the president's reelection!

[ProudProgressiveNow]

7. Like this one better.

Mostly because I am an Arizona Cardinal fan. Need I say more?

[Alekei_Firebird]

2. Romney's QB is Brady Quinn

And he's playing against the Chicago Bears defense.

Game over.

[robertpaulsen]

5. If Romney has the football, he's Joe Theismann.

And Barack Obama is Lawrence Taylor.

Not only is the game over, so is Mitt Romney's career!

[Larry in KC]

6. Hey! As a Kansas Citian...

I'm... uhh... in complete agreement.

Carry on.

The odds are good that Barack will force a turnover and win by 10!

[lupojohn]

3. It's 1st & Goal

And the President is sending Bill to Florida to hand it off to him and score the TD that would put it out of reach.

[Alekei_Firebird]

4. 1st and goal, with Adrian Peterson (Obama) against a junior peewee squad