Ohio insiders, talk me down please

[woolldog]

Here's a map of 2008 Ohio election results



Notice the little blue spots in what's mostly a red map?

Cuyahoga county includes Cleveland and suburbs. Obama won Cuyahoga by 40 points! Franklin inlcudes Columbus and environs. Obama won that county by 20 points. Lucas includes Toledo. Obama won that county by 30 points. Not sure what will happen in Cincinnati. I've heard it'll go for Romney but Obama won Hamilton county by 7 points, so I'll include it.

Those counties and a few others provided much of Obama's margin of victory in 2008.

* * *

Now I'm looking at the early voting numbers for Cuyahoga, Franklin, Lucas, and Hamilton counties and, frankly, I'm a bit disappointed in what I'm seeing.

In Cuyahoga: 196,844 early votes cast so far = 29% of total votes cast in this county in 2008. However in 2008 39.5% of the vote was early voting.

In Franklin: 176,868 early votes cast so far = 31% of total votes cast in this county in 2008. However in 2008 44.3% of the vote was early voting.

In Lucas: 43,515 early votes cast so far = 19.6% of total votes cast in this county in 2008. However in 2008, 28.5% of the vote was early voting.

In Hamilton: 80,071 early votes cast so far = 18.7% of total votes cast in this county in 2008. However in 2008, 25.4% of the vote was early voting

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

That indicates to me we're lagging a bit in the counties we need to run up the margins to offset the rest of the state, which is less populated but pretty red.

How many early voting days are left? And do these numbers point to any kind of enthusiasm gap? Thoughts from those in the know?

[madaboutharry]

1. Ohio is just like a lot of America.

Cities go blue, rural areas go red.

Same thing in Iowa. Blue Des Moines, Blue Iowa City, Red corn fields.

[woolldog]

3. What the numbers are telling me is our voters

aren't turning out in the numbers we need them to currently in order to win Ohio. They're lagging where they were in 2008 in early voting.

[JRLeft]

5. Early voting in Ohio isn't over.

[Maximumnegro]

37. The campaign has claimed leading OH

for weeks now. Unless you and your napkin-math knows something their state of the art polling does not, I suggest you chill out. Jesus. Never mind the TWENTY, yes TWENTY polls in the last TWO WEEKS with Obama leading. So which do you think is more likely to be wrong the polls and the campaign or you.

[woolldog]

40. See post #18

Thanks.

[CreekDog]

41. sorry can't talk you down, know why we can't?

because if all the Ohio information hasn't talked you down, then some responses here aren't going to.

sorry.

what are we going to say? nothing else, not poll results showing stronger leads than in 2008, nothing else is easing your mind.

so here's the thing:

we can't talk you down because you're setting some expectation that nobody can give you.

if you want to be basket case about this that's your choice, there's lots of information here to deal with your concerns. nobody has special information.

[woolldog]

45. posts # 34 & 39 succesfully talked me down.....

....for now

[JRLeft]

2. California looks just like Ohio. It is a blue state because of the 2 large markest in the state.

SF Bay Area and LA County. The rest of the state is red.

[woolldog]

4. I understand that.

But that's not my point. See post #3

[timber84]

7. Early voting is not over yet.

Understand that?

[CreekDog]

44. Look, the answer is no

please panic and be sad.

this isn't therapy. okay?

you want everyone to tell you it's going to be okay? nobody can say for sure.

you want everyone to post data and other things to make you believe differently? they ALREADY ARE!

[demosincebirth]

35. . San Diego and the inland empire are red the rest is blue from Oregon to San Diego county,

Especially the 900 miles of coastal area...all blue.

[mzmolly]

6. Is early voting over in Ohio?

If not, you can't compare totals from yesterday, to totals through 11/5.

[woolldog]

15. 5 more days left.

[mzmolly]

20. Exactly. So you're comparing apples

and oranges.

[CreekDog]

46. 5 days left --jeez

why hasn't everybody who voted early in 2008 voted 5 days earlier this time???

[Hosnon]

8. Are the 2008 numbers as of the Thursday before the election or total?

Because that would explain it.

[woolldog]

13. 2008 numbers are total.

But that seems like a lot of ground to make up in only 5 days.

I will keep an eye on the numbers and update everyday. Hopefully the numbers will start to converge and even surpass the 2008 numbers as early voting winds down.

[WestCoastLib]

23. Do the math.

How does that seem like "a lot of ground to make up"?

If there is early voting for 15 days and in the first 10 days of that voting you got 30%, math would suggest early voting would end up at 45%

There is still 1/3rd of early voting period to go and all of your percentages are more than 2/3rds of what they were in 2008.

[woolldog]

27. I would do the math but I'm not sure when early voting started.

Plus, looking at the early voting hours, they've been curtailed heavily the weekend before the election:

About Early Voting:

Early voting is the same as Absentee Voting, except that you do it in person rather than by mail. Early voting locations may be found HERE. Here are the hours for early voting:

—Mon., October 29 – Thurs., November 1: 8 AM to 7 PM

—Fri., November 2: 8 AM – 6 PM

—Sat., Nov. 3: 8 AM – 2 PM

—Sun., Nov. 4: 1 PM – 5 PM

—Mon., Nov. 5: 8 AM – 2 PM

http://www.ohvotes.org/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Does This Make You Feel Better?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251198424

[woolldog]

18. Not really.

I agree that all the polls point to an Obama win.

The only way Obama can't win now is if the polls are wrong because the expected Dem turnout never materializes. That's why I've been looking at these numbers, to pick up any hints that that may be the case.

[mzmolly]

10. Look - even Fox News will talk you down, here:

Roughly 19 million already voted, with Democrats leading in number of early ballots cast

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/01/roughly-1m-have-already-voted-dems-taking-likely-lead-in-battlegrounds/#ixzz2B0AGWa2u


...

Though trackers cannot tell whether the voters picked either Obama or Romney, a handful of states in which voters register by party can report the number of Democrats or Republicans who have voted.

Democrats appear to have a slight edge in several of the critical battleground states, according to the estimates – leading in six of seven key battleground states: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.

Republicans lead in Colorado, based on information from state elections agencies, the Associated Press and the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

...

Ohio

Votes: 1.3 million

Democrats: 30 percent

Republicans: 24 percent

The party affiliation in Ohio is based on the last primary in which a voter participated.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/01/roughly-1m-have-already-voted-dems-taking-likely-lead-in-battlegrounds/#ixzz2B0AdDTXA

[Faith9326]

11. We'll be fine in Ohio

I'm pretty confident Obama will win in Ohio. We just need to make sure people are voting in the big cities(because those rural areas are a racist mess). I've been helping to make sure that everyone I know has early voted(I even took some friends to early vote).


Early voting is until November 5.


I live in Columbus, and everyone is fired up and early voting. But I'm not so sure about those other counties.

[woolldog]

22. Faith

per the statistics, Franklin county early voting is only about 70% of what it was in 2008 so far. Now that could change with a final push over the last 5 days. But I'm a little concerned (plz no "concern" jokes).

[Faith9326]

32. Well

The bottom line, is that Obama is leading in almost all of the Ohio polls. THAT is key. And the weather has been shit lately, but I'm confident that come this weekend, people will get out and vote.


People in Ohio aren't stupid. We know who is on our side. He has Ohio.

[Alekei_Firebird]

12. Have you seen the latest OH state polls? NONE of them have Romney ahead or even tied.

Unless there's a huge major systemic flaw in every single polling firm out there, Obama's got OH.

[Dawgs]

16. +1. Ohio has always been Obama's. n/t

[woolldog]

21. yes. see post #18

[Sunlei]

25. wow, the only odd thing with your numbers

"woolldog (6,666 posts)"

I think a lot more people will vote this weekend.

[woolldog]

28. Doh!

I missed that. Darn.

[TheSlayer]

14. Again I say: NATE SILVER

According to Nate, Obama has an 80% chance of winning Ohio... Nate...and Intrade...the only places I look and even Intrade can be manipulated. Nate cannot be.

[brooklynite]

17. Please go back and re-read my posting from a high-ranking Ohio Democratic official

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251185530

[woolldog]

24. We're no longer ahead of early voting performance in 2008, imo.

If fact, we look to be behind.

[gkhouston]

29. Unless you have early voting stats for this point in the early voting period in 2008, you can't

know that. In my area, the heaviest days of early voting are usually the first day and the last few days. Ohio may be the same. In fact, there was all that fuss over whether any weekend voting could take place this weekend, which tells me that there's traditionally a significant turnout the weekend before the election.

[BlueDemKev]

19. All that map shows...

...is that Republicans usually carry the many little counties where about 4,000 people live while the Democrats carry the few BIG counties where 500,000 to 1,000,000 people live.

If you look at California, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New York, there's always more red than blue, but that doesn't mean the Republicans are getting more votes.

[kerouac2]

26. Changed dates from my post - Ohio early voting ends on Monday, November 5th 2012

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:10 PM - Edit history (1)

Registered voters may vote early beginning on October 2, 2012 and ending on Monday, November 5th 2012 for the Tuesday November 6th General Election. The final weekend of voting is by court order so could change before Election Day. If it changes, early voting will end on Friday, November 2nd for non-military citizens. Check back here closer to the election to confirm early voting dates and times.

Thanks for pointing out my old info.

Check out this site for current info:
http://www.vote411.org/search-by-topic?topics_tid[]=55&field_state_tid[]=36&=Apply#.UJLlEIZakn1

[woolldog]

30. Thanks.

I'm getting conflicting info on when Ohio early voting ends. This site suggests it's going on all weekend:

http://www.ohvotes.org/

[gkhouston]

31. According to the Ohio SOS, EARLY VOTING ENDS AT 2PM MONDAY, NOV. 5th.

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 04:50 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/elections/Voters/absentee/inperson.aspx

edited to "shout" the correct information about early voting. If you follow the link, it gives the full early voting schedule.

[Maeve]

38. You are correct--the other poster is working on old info

the Sec. of State tried to shut down the last weekend of voting (the ONLY weekend voting!), but the courts didn't allow it.

[LiberalFighter]

34. Some groups focus most of their effort on the last weekend. Like some churches.

[jsmirman]

39. THIS IS THE POINT THAT RESPONDS TO THE OP

If you had been paying attention, you would know that the vicious fight over the last three days of early voting is because the turnout is massive on those three days (see: Souls to the Polls, the movement of time (closer to the date, more people vote).

I know you are just nervous, but comparing apples to elephants like this and presenting it as sober analysis is irresponsible.

[woolldog]

42. ok thanks.

I don't think my analysis is irresponsible. I think I asked a pertinent question given the current data we have. And you've given a good response: the bulk of early voting occurs in the last weekend. You have to admit that without knowing that, my concerns are *very* relevant. That's why I wanted to hear from Ohioans and people who know that state. That's what dialogue is all about.

I will be updating the OP whenever the GMU site updates the numbers. Hopefully the early vote numbers in our most important counties will converge on and even exceed the 2008 early vote numbers. That's not the case now.

[CreekDog]

47. look, if nothing anybody says satisfies you and no data satisfies you STOP ASKING

just be honest with us and say "NOTHING CAN TALK ME DOWN".

this is just an extended tease.

i feel bad for all the posters who try to post data and "talk you down" with information and you just dismiss them, one after another.

if you can't be talked down, don't ask people to try.

[woolldog]

49. Do you have trouble with reading?

I already told you that posts #34 & 39 had successfully talked me down.

[CreekDog]

50. i didn't hit refresh often enough for you?

i'm glad you're calmer now. but still...

[LiberalFighter]

48. I'm not that worried.

I figured work around the blockades. And be smarter than them.

[LisaL]

43. Why do you post false information? It's false.

[LiberalFighter]

33. Just because the map looks mostly red doesn't mean it is.

You need to tie in the population numbers. Check out this population map.

[Connie_Corleone]

36. There are many rural, small population counties in Ohio.

The northwestern counties are more blue this year due to the auto bailout saving their jobs.

Obama will win Ohio. Period.

[amborin]

51. i posted this yesterday:

the article at the link made me very nervous

United Mine Workers
Steelworkers, etc....

just read an article in the cleveland plain dealer saying
this area of southeast ohio is actually crucial....manchester
guardian article said it is swinging toward romney....miners
and steelworkers have swallowed the b.s. about the deficit....
is the campaign contacting these unions and their locals?

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/06/southeast_ohio_has_become_an_i

[Firebirds01]

52. Clark County

which is the one the bottom of the "C" in Columbus touches, will go blue. It is a huge swing county and it was noted by the BBC as being the American county that most demographically represents the US. We are doing an huge GOTV campaign and early voting has been packed for the last few weeks.

It will go blue. We got your back.


Clark County Ohio, home of smart people.



Northeast Ohio has the most people. If they can GOTV they will swing the state.

Northwest Ohio are socially conservative German Catholics. But they are heavily tied into auto manufacturing, particularly Ford and Honda. The bailout should be popular (even with the Honda people because auto manufacturing is like a brotherhood).

The blue Cincinnati county is where the Romney kid bought the voting machines.

[woolldog]

54. Wow, good job over there in Clark county.

In Clark: 14,940 early votes cast so far = 22% of total votes cast in this county in 2008. In 2008 25% of the vote was early voting.

If you're right and it goes blue, those are early voting numbers that show a lot of enthusiasm. But since Clark county was red in 2008, not sure if that's a good thing.

[zipplewrath]

53. Sandy

I tell ya what worries me about that map, much of the blue area was hit hard by Sandy and alot of those people are without power. I hope that doesn't suppress turn out in those blue areas.