Nate thinks Santorum will edge out Romney OHIO
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/live-coverage-super-tuesday/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#where-is-ohio-headed
Live Coverage: Super Tuesday
By NATE SILVER
The biggest day so far in the race for the Republican presidential nomination — 11 states weigh-in — could solidify Mitt Romney’s grip on the nomination or upend the contest. We’ll be bringing you data-driven analysis, exit poll information, historical perspective and state-by-state results.
9:41 P.M. Where Is Ohio Headed?
Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by about 3 points in Ohio with a third of the vote counted. But are the areas that have reported so far representative of the entire state?
One way to get an idea of this is to assume that each county will account for the same share of the state's vote that it did in 2008. This method is potentially more reliable than making extrapolations based on the number of precincts that have have reported in each county, since precincts can vary significantly within a county in the number of voters they contain.
If you weight the 2012 margins between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney as reported so far by the 2008 turnout in each county, it suggests that Mr. Santorum's margin might narrow slightly, but that he is perhaps the slight favorite to hold on; that method would have him winning statewide by 1.2 percentage points.
Obviously that is very close and there are some problems with this method. A handful of small Ohio counties haven't reported results at all, for instance, and the assumption that turnout will be proportional to 2008 is not necessarily correct. But it looks like Mr. Santorum has the slightest of edges here.
- Nate Silver
= new reply since forum marked as read
