Gallup -Obama favorability 62-38 -Trends suggest this is not a perfect predictor of victory, he says
Obama's and Romney's current ratings can also be compared with those of presidential candidates from the 1960 through 1992 elections, as well as the 2004 and 2008 elections. Gallup did not measure favorability toward the 1996 and 2000 candidates using the scalometer format. One caveat in drawing conclusions from these comparisons is that in earlier years, particularly prior to 1980, there appears to have been a tendency for scalometer scores to reach much higher than they have more recently -- possibly due to increased political polarization over time.
With 62% of Americans rating Obama between +1 and +5 and 38% rating him between -1 and -5, he has a net favorable score of +24. This is similar to Obama's +27 net favorable score toward the end of the 2008 campaign. In comparison with recent incumbents seeking a second term, Obama's current rating is most similar to George W. Bush's +22 net favorable score in 2004 -- and of course Bush won. It is better than George H. W. Bush's +19 score in 1992, though it is lower than Ronald Reagan's +39 in 1984.
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