Independents won’t save Mitt

[DonViejo]

Romney backers keep hoping his lead among independents means undecided voters will break his way. It's an illusion
BY STEVE KORNACKI


To paint a scenario in which Mitt Romney is elected president next Tuesday, Republicans need to explain either how they’ll generate a last-minute wave of momentum or how the polls that show their candidate lagging in states he has to win are flawed.

The momentum bit is a tough sell. Romney made real polling strides in the wake of the first debate on October 3, erasing the lead Barack Obama has enjoyed in the national horserace for the entire campaign and improving his own Electoral College outlook. But that momentum expired somewhere in the middle of the month, and since then the race has been frozen in place, with the candidates tied nationally (or with Romney ahead by a fraction of a point) and with Obama holding steady leads in Ohio and Wisconsin, one of which Romney pretty much must pick off to have a chance next week.

Plus, with Sandy and its aftermath dominating the news this week, and with one of Romney’s top surrogates, Chris Christie, publicly vouching for Obama’s leadership, it’s a lot easier to see Obama being the beneficiary of any late momentum than Romney.

So that leaves flawed polls, and on this front the right has found something to latch on to: Romney’s support among independent voters. Poll after poll has shown the GOP nominee beating — and in some cases crushing – Obama among independents, in both the national horserace and in key states. An NPR poll earlier this week, for instance, put Romney 12 points ahead of the president with independents, 51 to 39 percent, and a CBS/New York Times survey found the exact same result. A Monmouth University poll last week pegged Romney’s independent lead at 19 points.

more:
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/01/the_independent_illusion/

[doc03]

1. Sorry but I listened to Glenn Beck and he claims all the independents will

will vote for Romney. Get this he said Romney will win the popular vote by 6-10% and the swing state by 3-6 % and will get 321 EV. He said Walker was 3 points behind in the recall but he won by 9%. So all the polls are wrong.

[FBaggins]

2. It all depends on what is meant by "independents"

Are these the swing-voter independents who really do shift from one election to the next... or are many of them people who used to consider themselves to be republicans, but who left the party (due to Bush or more recent congressional behavior)?